COVID Data Thread

NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

THERE WAS NO DATA LAST MONDAY HERE EITHER DUE TO THE HOLIDAY BUT 4 DAYS WORTH WERE POSTED THE NEXT DAY WHCH IS THE NUMBER IN BRACKETS FOR DEATHS AND CASES - THE OTHER NUMBERS ARE FROM LAST MONDAY

6 deaths (15)

2706 cases (30,423) - As you can see this is well down on any estimate based on the brackers number. It was 3760 yesterday

37,419 WEEKLY CASES (50,627) - THE BIG DROP IS EVIDENT HERE TOO

202 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 190 FRIDAY AND 152 LAST WEEK - HOPEFUL SIGNS OF A SLOWING HERE

387 patients - was 402 on Friday & 348 last week

22 Ventilated - was 26 Friday & 25 last week

Again despite high case numbers no real sign of ventilator numbers escalating
 
Healdplace said:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL NUMBERS SATURDAY & SUNDAY

Quite good news here - especially as the TV news today claimed that hospital numbers in the NW had doubled in a week. Which is actually not true. Though NW is unsurprisingly rising a lot BUT not by that much and not even the most over the weekend.

Though Monday is always a big admissions day sonumbers isually rise a lot and things might very well change when we get that data this evening.



ADMISSONS:

SAT 2043 & SUN 1772 - BOTH are down from the previous week (2114 & 1781)


REGIONALLY: (v was last week)

LONDON 310 & 312 - was 450 & 319

MIDLANDS 420 & 348 - was 395 & 359

NE & YORKS 421 & 331 - was 309 & 336

NORTH WEST 370 & 330 - was 393 & 326


As you can see NW actually did better than both the Midlands and NW & Yorkshire over the weekend. And better on one of two days than London.



TOTAL ENGLAND INPATIENTS

(FRI 16,163) SAT 16,034 SUN 16,399 - so a rise of 236 over the two days after FALLING on Saturday

Last Week those numbers were (up every day)_

(FRI 12,395) SAT 12,615 SUN 13,151 - so a rise of 756 over the two days.



SUN to SUN weekly rise was 3248 from 13,151 TO 16,399.



As a warning of what to expect later the Monday rise last week was 1059.


Regional numbers: (FRI) SAT./ SUN V LAST SUNDAY

EAST (1440) 1427 / 1440 V 1199

LONDON (3989) 3819 / 3867 V 3744

MIDLANDS (2943) 2951 / 3038 V 2356

NE & YORKS (2419) 2485 / 2612 V 1854

NORTH WEST (2899) 2904 / 3004 V 1965

SOUTH EAST (1606) 1593 / 1582 V 1362

SOUTH WEST (867) 855 / 856 V 671


As you can see the southern regions have fallen well over the weekend - the NW tops 3000 and i up but NOT doubled in the past week as the TV news just clained - it was actually up about 50% DOWN from last week. And NE & Yorkshire has risen the most over the weekend. Consistent with their numbers on Zoe showing them presently rising fastest in reports to the app.



TOTAL ENGLAND VENTILATORS


This is good news.

(FRI 728) SAT 708 SUN 704 - So a FALL of 24 over the weekend to the LOWEST in weeks.

Last week those numbers were

(FRI 782) SAT 765 SUN 769 - A fall of 13 over the weekend and FALL of 65 week to week.

THE NUMBERS ON VENTILATORS ARE FALLING NOTICEABLY AS PATIENTS ARE RISING A LOT - HARD TO SEE THAT IN ANY WAY OTHER THAN PROVING VISIBLY COVID IS MORE INFECTIOUS BUT LESS DANGEROUS



Regional numbers: (FRI) SAT./ SUN V LAST SUNDAY


EAST (81) 79 / 77 V 86

LONDON (224) 220 / 224 V 230

MIDLANDS (113) 114 / 105 V 139

NE & YORKS (90) 87 / 90 V 87

NORTH WEST (93) 89 / 88 V 81

SOUTH EAST (73) 68 / 78 V 93

SOUTH WEST (54) 51 / 42 V 53


The track is downward and we may even see numbers in the 600s any day now which is remarkable given the huge rise in patients and looks like easy to see evidence that Omicron is proving less deadly.
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Early days but it looks as if the England Hosp admissions are stabilising at just a shade over 2000 a day on average.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
Early days but it looks as if the England Hosp admissions are stabilising at just a shade over 2000 a day on average.
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It does. London & South East and NW peaking first will have added around 50% of the expected rise as the two biggest regions so the remainder to come from basically Yorkshire, NE and Midlands which is already underway and looks to be starting to outpace the NW is the last main set of contributers to have had their rises We should see that play out over the next week to 10 days and it MIGHT be downhill from there .

Possibly. We will need to see significant drops in London and North West cases as London is down but fairly modestly even after about 4 weeks and still well over where it was early December pre Omicron.

Hard to know if the serious Omicron cases - however many there are - will take longer to become evident. The ventilator data is quite encouraging but it could easily change if the care home numbers escalate as they have in Northern Ireland and they were starting to do in Scotland and we have no clue in England as nobody seems to be looking.
 
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ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND


These are less good with rises now evident. And the North West the biggest factor. How much this explains the falling ventilator numbers is another question. It probably will not be entirely irrelevant.

There are no direct comparisons due to the weekend Christmas/New Year comparisons not reporting - so I compare only with the weeked before Christmas when we last had normal data.

SAT 160 with 35 North West V 89 with 12 North West

SUN 24 with 11 North West V 17 with 1 North West

MON 15 with 8 North West V 22 with 0 North West


So over the weekend 199 deaths V 128 three weeks ago which is about what the daily numbers suggest is the proprtionate rise in past 2 or 3 weeks.

It is not entirely easy to be sure how much of the data is still showing reporting lag over the long holidays.

Some will be but the totals for the past 5 days are probably also rising.

Here are the 5 day totals for the first 5 days of the week 2 JAN to 8 JAN

92 - 104 - 121 - 124

We had the first 100 plus number in weeks on 28 DEC (101) so to see the above tells its own story.

Jan 6 the next day coming up is already on 100 after 4 days. And the weekly total is already higher than last week with 3 days of data to add. It will probably be the highest England hosital deaths in a coupke of months as it stands.

Deaths are NOT skyrocketting. That is the good news. But they are edging up now and 100 plus is the norm now not something to comment on.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA OVER THE WEEKEND

By region: East 33, London 31, Midlands 34, NE & Yorkshire 18, North West 54, South East 17, South West 12

Though it is important to note that only East, North West and South West reported on all 3 days.

All the other regions did not reprt for yesterday or today so will have some catch up numbers added tomorrow.

By age: 0 - 19 (1), 20 - 39 (3) 40 - 59 (25), 60 - 79 (76), 80 PLUS (94)
 
Healdplace said:
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS OVER THE WEEKEND


These are less good with rises now evident. And the North West the biggest factor. How much this explains the falling ventilator numbers is another question. It probably will not be entirely irrelevant.

There are no direct comparisons due to the weekend Christmas/New Year comparisons not reporting - so I compare only with the weeked before Christmas when we last had normal data.

SAT 160 with 35 North West V 89 with 12 North West

SUN 24 with 11 North West V 17 with 1 North West

MON 15 with 8 North West V 22 with 0 North West


So over the weekend 199 deaths V 128 three weeks ago which is about what the daily numbers suggest is the proprtionate rise in past 2 or 3 weeks.

It is not entirely easy to be sure how much of the data is still showing reporting lag over the long holidays.

Some will be but the totals for the past 5 days are probably also rising.

Here are the 5 day totals for the first 5 days of the week 2 JAN to 8 JAN

92 - 104 - 121 - 124

We had the first 100 plus number in weeks on 28 DEC (101) so to see the above tells its own story.

Jan 6 the next day coming up is already on 100 after 4 days. And the weekly total is already higher than last week with 3 days of data to add. It will probably be the highest England hosital deaths in a coupke of months as it stands.

Deaths are NOT skyrocketting. That is the good news. But they are edging up now and 100 plus is the norm now not something to comment on.
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I’d imagine today will be a very large number (300+ maybe?). There’s still a backlog feeding through from the Xmas and NY data and, with such huge community spread, there will be many people dying with a positive test which will not then follow on to the ‘on the death certificate’ numbers.
Hopefully today and tomorrow will sort the holiday period out and we can move back to a more meaningful seven day rolling average.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DEATHS

North West Trusts:-

9 in Manchester, 8 in (Nth) Lancashire, 5 each in Bolton, Liverpool & Wigan, 4 in St Helens & Salford, 3 in East Lancashire, Morecambe, Warrington, 2 in Pennine Acute AND 1 each in Christies, Chester, Tameside, Wirral
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
I’d imagine today will be a very large number (300+ maybe?). There’s still a backlog feeding through from the Xmas and NY data and, with such huge community spread, there will be many people dying with a positive test which will not then follow on to the ‘on the death certificate’ numbers.
Hopefully today and tomorrow will sort the holiday period out and we can move back to a more meaningful seven day rolling average.
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Agreed I did add the caveat in the post about being unsure how much of this is still hangover lag from the holdays.

Tuesday is also always a big catch up number from the weekend where many do not report.

As noted only East, North West and South West reported ANY deaths at all from yesterday and today so there will be a lot from them in the number tomorrow.

Going on from here we should have more meaningful comparisons.

Even so as I said I think the death numbers are up but not in a way that looks concerning given all the factors involved.
 
This day last year there were 498 deaths in England and 563 in the UK (or 529 if you compare with the Monday not the date as hospital deaths are always lower on both Sunday and Monday)

As of now with just out of hospital in England to add we are on 15 England and 37 UK (Out of hospital England added 40 and just made it 77 in UK total)

Think that puts it very starkly into perspective as to where we are now versus 12 months ago.

It will go up tomorrow as always on a Tuesday with the catch up but it did on those dates last year too - to 1243. Which I think we can confidently say it will be nowhere near tomorrow.
 
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77 all settings deaths v 97 yesterday & 42 last week

England only 55 v 84 yesterday & 42 last week



142,224 cases v 141,472 yesterday & 157,758 last week

England only 115,998 v 121,228 yesterday & 137,541 last week
 
Healdplace said:
77 all settings deaths v 97 yesterday & 42 last week

England only 55 v 84 yesterday & 42 last week



142,224 cases v 141,472 yesterday & 157,758 last week

England only 115,998 v 121,228 yesterday & 137,541 last week
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Looks pretty clear now, caveats about testing capacity notwithstanding, that we've peaked on cases for the UK as a whole now.

I guess hospitalisation is less certain, dependent on age groups, but patients to peak maybe a couple of weeks time.

Deaths maybe about end of the month? (in SA, still rising 3 weeks after case peak).

The really good news is the near total decoupling of ICU from cases and hospitalisation.
 
Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much
 
kaz7 said:
Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much
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To be fair I don't think there is a shortage of tests now Kaz but it did feel that way up until last week. In fact I've just ordered some via the website. I think you're right that less people will test after the holidays but also as less people have symptoms then less people will test because of that too (this would make sense with the Zoe data).
 
kaz7 said:
Numbers for every borough and not just the headline numbers of cases , hospital admissions , icu and deaths
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There's huge local variation. @Healdplace has a much better handle on that than I do.

But just for instance, here's a visualisation of admissions vs admissions growth rate.

There's a huge spread across the country. You can see how the blue dots (London) are high but falling. NW generally high but still rising (and fast).1641835063029.png
 
roubaixtuesday said:
Looks pretty clear now, caveats about testing capacity notwithstanding, that we've peaked on cases for the UK as a whole now.

I guess hospitalisation is less certain, dependent on age groups, but patients to peak maybe a couple of weeks time.

Deaths maybe about end of the month? (in SA, still rising 3 weeks after case peak).

The really good news is the near total decoupling of ICU from cases and hospitalisation.
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It is as I noted in the hospital data earlier - the way the ventilator numbers keep on falling and are at their lowest in many weeks in mid winter in England after over 100K cases a day for weeks and with increasing numbers in hospital over past weeks says it all. Especially as it is not deaths rising that is the explanation as these are only very slightly up on where they were pre Christmas and way down on where they were last January as we approached the peak of ventilated patients in mid/late January when there were 5 times as many as now on them in the UK. The apparent lack of this progressing into the lungs with Omicron seems to be what is saving the day - be it the way the virus behaves or the vaccines working or both.
 
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