COVID Data Thread

roubaixtuesday said:
There's huge local variation. @Healdplace has a much better handle on that than I do.

But just for instance, here's a visualisation of admissions vs admissions growth rate.

There's a huge spread across the country. You can see how the blue dots (London) are high but falling. NW generally high but still rising (and fast).View attachment 34164
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Graphs are easier for me to read , thanks
 
kaz7 said:
Surely the drop in cases these last few days is because the number went up over the holidays as everyone was testing and now there is a shortage of them and people are not testing as much
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Cases are down day to day and week to week today despite more tests today than either yesterday or last week.

317,000 or so more than yesterday and 280,000 or so more than last Monday.

This positivity level is what matters. The number England alone totally ignore (the other three home nations see its importance and give it). No idea why England is so wary as the WHO stress its importance too. But the cases as a % of the tests tells you it broadly and if cases fall as tests rise it means lower positivity and is good news.
 
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
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The trend seems to have been flattening not rising so hopefully.

Here are the numbers daily in England from 18 Dec onward

735 - 926 - 1061 - 1098 - 1246 - 1252 - 1020

1281 - 1374 - 1751 - 2082 - 2370 - 2114 - 1781

1819 - 1881 - 2219 - 2101 - 2139 -2043 - 1772

It is 1862 today (or rather Saturday as they are 48 hours behind) V 1819 last week

So it is up again but by less and has been decreasing - note - 735 - 1281 - 1819 - 1862 on the four Saturdays.

So hopefully will start to fall soon. Seems unlikely to suddenly spike into the thousands.
 
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Healdplace said:
The trend seems to have been flattening not rising so hopefully.

Here are the numbers daily in England from 18 Dec onward

735 - 926 - 1061 - 1098 - 1246 - 1252 - 1020

1281 - 1374 - 1751 - 2082 - 2370 - 2114 - 1781

1819 - 1881 - 2219 - 2101 - 2139 -2043 - 1772

It is 1862 today (or rather Saturday as they are 48 hours behind) V 1819 last week
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yes , I made the average of the last 11 days (since 2082) 2029.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
It will be interesting to see if daily hospital admissions even get to the scenario numbers modelled by SAGE on the 18th Dec, of between 3000 to 10000 for continued no restrictions, currently they are averaging just over 2000 which is obviously much better.
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And because only 63%, according to last week's primary care diagnosis, of the people with Covid are being treated for Covid, that 2,000 number might be more like 1,260.
 
Churchlawtonblue said:
yes , I made the average of the last 11 days (since 2082) 2029.
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That looks hopeful. I think as the biggest regions have all now started to rise and peak and some seemingly have peaked then there is not much obvious scope in this wave to suddenly see that reverse towards the numbers that were being feared. It would take something unforseen right now. Not impossible. But unlikely. Especially if we watch the care home situation which is y priary concern given the numbers in Scotland and Northern Ireland and the unknown extent of it in England but from those pretty likely to be a factor in the numbers soon.
 
ENGLAND HOSPITAL DATA TODAY

As expected as it always is on a Monday there was a bigger rise today than over the weekend and the North West had undeniably the worst of it. But it is up less than last Monday.

PATIENTS - UP 721 FROM 16,399 to 17,120

Last week the equivalent was 13,151 to 14,210 going UP 1059

Regionally

East up 57 to 1497, London up 63 to 3930, Midlands up 107 to 3145, NE & Yorkshire up 146 to 2758, South East up 90 to 1672 and South West up 56 to 912.

So everyone is rising by similar numbers really.

NORTH WEST rose today by 202 - to 3206 - easily the most as you can see - the legacy of now being the highest region in cases (several thousand over every other region today).

It will be driving things for a few more days until cases stabilise properly as London did.

But Midlands and Yorkshire as you see are outdoing London now too pretty much every day.


On ventilators there was a rise today of just 3 from 704 to 707.

Last Monday the rise was 8 to 777 - so it is 70 down on last Monday today.

Little change in most places:

East down 1 to 76, London up 1 to 225, Midlands level at 105, NE & Yorkshire up 1 to 91, South East down 5 to 73 and South West up 2 to 44

Given the patient intake it will be no surprise that the NORTH WEST went up the most - by 5 from 88 to 93.
 
93 patients today on ventilators from 3206 in hospital in the NW is 3%

This time last year there were 3456 in hospital in the NW - only a little more - but then 16 days away from the eventual peak at 4346

There were on 10 January 2021 a total of 296 on ventilators in the NW out of those 3456 patients - which is 8.6% of patients then on ventilators - we are ONE THIRD of that level today.

Those 296 rose to a peak of 417 just 12 days later at the peak of the wave last January - by that point 9.6% of total patients were on ventilators.

These numbers show why we can be very hopeful of a lot fewer deaths in 2022 v 2021
 
I could be really mean and suggest that you should have justified the above's inclusion by declaring how many green bottles accidentally fell during the party or how many of the red and blue ones were found in the trash subsequently. Though that might take until the next election to find out.

Not that I have the slightest intention of really policing this thread as being data only in the way it might have happened the other way around.

So this is just a joke. :)
 
Does anyone know when to expect the latest death certificate figure? the London figures on the dashboard have not updated since 24th Dec.
 
grunge said:
Does anyone know when to expect the latest death certificate figure? the London figures on the dashboard have not updated since 24th Dec.
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​

THERE IS A MESSAGE UP ON THIS ON GOV UK THAT WENT UP YESTERDAY. NOT TOTALLY SURE WHAT IT MEANS THOUGH BUT I ASSUME CONNECTED GIVEN THE DATE THOUGH DATA LIKE THIS IS OFTEN A WEEK OR TWO BEHIND. THE ONS NUMBERS WE GET ON FRIDAYS FOR PREVALENCE FOR INSTANCE ARE ALWAYS A WEEK BEHIND.​

​

​

QUOTE:-​

​

10 January 2022​

Log category:DATA ISSUE​

Correction to deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate​

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has corrected the number of deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate for the week ending 24 December 2021. Some deaths were not included in the published figures because of an issue with the ONS automated coding system.
 
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LATEST ZOE APP DATA GRAPH SHOWING NUMBERS STILL RISING BUT THE CURVE ALSO STILL SEEMING TO BE SMOOTHING OUT

NUMBERS SHOW PREDICTED CASES FALL AGAIN AND GO BELOW 200,000 ON ZOE FOR FIRST TIME IN A WEEK
AFTER STEADY FALLS - THE LATEST FROM 201,013 YESTERDAY TO 198,296

ONGOING SYMPTOMATIC CASES ARE AT 2.726,697 - HIGHEST EVER,OF COURSE - UP FROM 2,705,163 - A RISE OF 21.534 - ANOTHER FALL IN THE DAILY RISE - IT WAS 30,200 THE DAY BEFORE AND ABOUT 80K A WEEK AGO CLEARLY SHOWING WHY THE CURVE IS FLATTENING

IF THIS CONTINUES THEN THE RISE IN ONGOING CASES SHOULD REVERSE IN A FEW DAYS AND THE GRAPH WILL PEAK

1641901701029.png
 
ZOE APP DATA HEADLINES UK NUMBERS

North West remains top - but falls for the third straight day though by a little less than yesterday:- ON 4038 / 4475 FROM 4068 / 4510 & 4117 / 4565 over the past two days.

If the NW fall continues then the region peaked significantly below London which topped out in top spot two weeks ago on 5587 / 6080 and has fallen every day since.

Today - after halving in those two weeks - it is on 2937 / 3226 (down from 3065 / 3361) and now fallen down the list of 12 UK regions from top to fifth.

Second and third behind NW are now North East and then Yorkshire. North East rising the most on 3638 / 4372 & Yorkshire just behind also rising daily on 3409 / 3868.

IF current trajectories continue they may both ovetake North West in the next 5 - 7 days. Though that is a big IF.

South West England which was the first area to peak in November when it was ahead of all the much larger regions rose the least over Christmas and in past days has dropped down and has the best numbers in the UK now on 1971/ 2229 - the only region not 2000 or above.

South East which has fallen next most to London over past week or so and Scotland are the other two just over 2000 and in the least trouble right now.
 
ZOE APP DATA HEADLINES NORTH WEST & GM

Liverpool is now one of the biggest numbers on Zoe and the highest I have ever seen on Zoe in this part of the region.

BUT NOT THE TOP - SEE LATER!

Up today by 4K to 63,135.

St Helens is also spiking very high again on 57,894.

You may have noticed in the England hospital deaths there have often been high numbers v the rest of the NW in the past week or so and THIS is clearly why as both have been rising for two or three weeks.

Sefton the other Merseyside borough (including Southport) is on 49,721 - so this region is all high

Wirral has steadily rose up too and is currently on 43,110.

And West Lancashire between Merseyside and Wigan in GM is on 47,804.

Preston and South Ribble are also through the roof on 56K and 58K respectively.

The more southern parts of the NW are high but less so - though rising too.

Cheshire East on 35,648 and Cheshire West on 35,131 - very high for here but low compared with both Merseyside & Greater Manchester either side of the more rural Cheshire county.

AS FOR GREATER MANCHESTER - STILL RISING UNFORTUNATELY - SOME MORE THAN OTHERS AND SALFORD SETS A NEW RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST EVER IN THE COUNTY

BURY 29,294 - the only faller lately but rising again here now too vut just under 30K

TRAFFORD 37,953 - the second 'lowest' but still rising and would have been worst nearly every day with this score pre Omicron but as the first in GM to spike is now doing much better


ALL THE REST ARE 40K OR HIGHER!


ROCHDALE 43,327 - up 5K in 48 hours

BOLTON 46,725 - up nearly 8 K in 48 hours - biggest climber in past week or so after being the best.

WIGAN 47,350 - up 4K in 48 hours

STOCKPORT 48,322 - up 5K in 48 hours and like many of the above at highest ever numbers

MANCHESTER 49,230 - up only 2K in 48 hours and seems to be flattening

OLDHAM 49,811 - up 6K in 48 hours and looks certain to be next into the 50K club

TAMESIDE 52,749 - up 4K in 48 hours and first time over 50K



AND STILL TOP OF THE TREE AFTER BEING BEST BY MILES FOR WEEKS PRE OMICRON


SALFORD 63,703 - Up 5K in 48 hours and first GM score ever over 60,000 after being the first to top 50,000 a few days ago.
 
I am sure some City fans will be interested in noting that Liverpool and Salford are the peak boroughs in the numbers right now. And whilst Manchester is on its own record high both the above (as you see in the Zoe numbers) are well ahead of the city and at record NW levels.
 
WALES DATA

Dramatic fall in cases today but not all that it seems

4 deaths - was 8 last week

2176 cases - was 22,317 last week

NB LAST WEEK WAS FOR TWO DAYS SO THE DEATHS ARE ON PAR BUT THE CASES EVEN BASED ON HALF LAST WEEK APPEAR WAY DOWN

BUT only 9000 tests are reported as being done. Unusually low.

22% positivity - was 28% last week - which shows the number IS a fall in cases but not remotely the tenth of last week it might appear to be if you do not understand what the nuances here mean.

Patients 756 (not updated in 3 days) - was 677 last week

Ventilated 42 (not updated in 3 days) - was 36 last week
 
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