COVID Data Thread

Healdplace said:
Still no estimated time for the UK cases. It is a big job rejigging the numbers to include re-infections as I assume they are adding in the older data as well.

It seems likely to create an impression of a rise (possibly a bit of a jump) not the recent falls we have witnessed.
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I wonder how Sky and the beeb will report that??
 
cleavers said:
Saying 10pm now.
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Might take until tomorrow to understand the new system. Two weeks on I am still lost with the Scottish changes to the way they post cases which might as well be in Martian. They took a simple number - made it into several numbers none of which is the real one and left you to work out what was.

Hope Gov UK is not a similar complex reboot.

If it is I will create a conspiracy theory that this is being done to stop anyone paying any attention to case numbers any more.

Posting numbers from January in February (if it goes past midnight). Has to be a conspiracy.
 
Healdplace said:
Might take until tomorrow to understand the new system. Two weeks on I am still lost with the Scottish changes to the way they post cases whic might as well be in Martian.
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Cases is a farce now anyway, I tried to enter a negative test last week, it took me about 45 minutes, guess what I haven't tried again. I know someone who tested positive (asymtopatic pretty much) and they didn't bother to enter the result either, same reason, so there really is no way of knowing what case numbers actually are, other than those through hospital tests (and the ONS weekly random tests).
 
Cases are with Omicron nothing like as important as they were. They drive hospital numbers to a degree but as stays are ow much shorter than they were less than they did. Watching admissions and the ventilator numbers and the deaths that form the chain of three things that are linked are what we really need to follow.

As many cases (41% of them roughly) are teenagers and below and most of those are aged 9 and below. And these are thankfully hardly ever too serious much beyond a bit of a sniffle.
 
Healdplace said:
Cases are with Omicron nothing like as important as they were. They drive hospital numbers to a degree but as stays are ow much shorter than they were less than they did. Watching admissions and the ventilator numbers and the deaths that form the chain of three things that are linked are what we really need to follow.

As many cases (41% of them roughly) are teenagers and below and most of those are aged 9 and below. And these are thankfully hardly ever too serious much beyond a bit of a sniffle.
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Yeah well aware of all that, but it's still a farce that many (probably most) don't report their results at all, so why do they bother even disclosing them or the number of tests taken, when they have no real idea, and so why are they changing the system of reporting the number of cases ?
 
cleavers said:
Yeah well aware of all that, but it's still a farce that many (probably most) don't report their results at all, so why do they bother even disclosing them or the number of tests taken, when they have no real idea, and so why are they changing the system of reporting the number of cases ?
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No idea. Perhaps a plan to make everyone spend a week working it out and forget about other things goimg on. Magicians use this trick all the time. I once did a conference in LA with a guy who created some of the most amazing illusions in the world and he told me how he did a couple of them. They were deceptively simple yet brilliantly effective.
 
51 all settings deaths - was 56 last week

England only 37 - was 44 last week

92,368 cases - was 88,447 last week

England only 81,720 - was 77,232 last week
 
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Scotland's cases yesterday from out of the numbers they posted:-

7258 / 2970 / 4180 actually turned into 3539 added by Gov UK (obviously!) V 3518 the previous Sunday.

Today from 5887 / 1506 / 4336 posted by Scotland became 1961 on Gov UK tonight V 2956 last week

Clear as mud as to how. But seems good. Possibly.
 
The changes have made a massive difference to the overall totals of cases as will be no surprise. It is not just today they impact.

For instance Bolton's cases have jumped up 5500 in one day today and their Pop Score up from 27,089 to 28,987!!!

Very obviously they have not had 5500 cases today or risen by a Pop Score of 1898 rather than 189 cases and a Pop of 66 yesterday as they did.

I may be able to figure out today eventually but I think we will need to wait until tomorrow until we see true day to day comparisons again.

As this leap is caused by all the reinfections that have been added on retrospectively.

Not going to attempt figuring all that out at this hour!

PS: Seems they have not updated the days backward only jumped by the full total in one go!

So there will be no way other than to say Bolton 'added' 5500 cases today. Which it obviously didnt.

So it will be tomorrow before we can get any credible indication of what each borough is doing.

Night. Not getting started on that one. All the boroughs will now be screwed up by this change and it will be a week before we can even see where we stand compartively v where we stood up to today.


Going to bed!!!
 
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There were 137,260 cases in the North West - up 'slightly' from 5360 the day before - only a rise of 131,900.

Farcical as that is (as in totally making the number meaningless) it was created by the decision to now include every reinfection as a new case and to just add every one of these from before in one huge dump onto yesterday with no back dating to when they should have been added over many months.

North West DID have the biggest number of these as you can see.

Here are the others:-

London added 128,076, South East 109,114, West MIdlands 93,803, Yorkshire 89,449, East 78,291, East Midlands 69,822, South West 59,332 & North East 48,651

There can be no meaningful table for GM today as nobody in the 10 boroughs added less than Bury - UP 3609! Manchester alone added 12,108 cases yesterday.

GM added around 59,000 cases out of those 128,000 in NW.

At least we will get normal day to day numbers back today but Pop Scores are all messed up for the next 7 days so I will not post any of those.
 
We can see how relatively the reinfection numbers altered things in GM by noting how far up the Pop Scores for each borough went.

Only Bolton, Stockport and Oldham are still below the 30K club now. Stockport clearly did the best in GM out of the added reinfection cases - having the smallest increase. DId not massively change the picture - just changed the gaps between the three quite a bit.

Best vaccination rate in GM = lowest reinfection rise. Lowest vaccination rate in GM = highest reinfection rise.THE key stat.

Should be what the media are reporting.

Doubt they will.

BOLTON still has lowest Pop Score (but up 1898) on 28,987 - so will enter the 29K club today.

STOCKPORT (up 1669) on 29,395 - so now just 408 behind Bolton - it was 637 before yesterday.

OLDHAM (up 2109) 29,884 - so now 489 behind Stockport - it was just 49 behind before yesterday and likely to have become the direct challenger to Bolton as earky as today. That will now at least be delayed a while.

THE REST ARE OVER 30K

BURY (up 1892) on 30,126 - entered the 30 K club technically on Sunday based on this.

TRAFFORD (up 1685) on 30,171 - next best other than Stockport for reinfection cases it seems

MANCHESTER (up 2179) on 30,515 - biggest rise via the reinfections

ROCHDALE (up 2058) on 30,665

WIGAN (up 2006) on 30,695

TAMESIDE (up 2008) on 30,878

SALFORD (up 2070) on 31,880 - stays as the highest Pop Score in GM over the pandemic but the gap to second rises to over 1000 now.
 
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WALES DATA

0 deaths - was 2 last week

1635 cases - was 1977 last week

20.2% positivity - was 23.8% last week

820 patients (Friday) - was 717 last week

18 ventilated (FRiday) - was 22 last week
 
SCOTLAND DATA

30 deaths - was 23 last week

Cases ???? who knows was 3024 last week

22.0% positivity - was 21.6% last week

1177 patients - was 1206 yesterday & 1392 last week

29 ventilated icu - was 33 yesterday & 34 last week

These hospital numbers still falling
 
NORTHERN IRELAND DATA

4 deaths - was 5 last week

4622 cases - was 5023 last week

28,366 WEEKLY CASES - WAS 29,071 YESTERDAY & 30,808 LAST WEEK

179 CARE HOME OUTBREAKS - WAS 186 YESTERDAY & 213 LAST WEEK

These numbers going the right way now happily

337 patients - was 338 yesterday & 409 lsst week

13 Ventilated - was 16 yesterday & 17 laast week

As with Scotland - so here -and ventilators at levels not seen sibce last Summer as in England
 
1643729317487.png

TODAYS WEEKLY CASES IN NORTHERN IRELAND - MUCH AS BEFORE. BY FAR THE MOST ARE CHILDREN AND OVER 60 BELOW 2000 BETWEEN THEM.
 
The reinfection numbers being added is revealing new things.

About 11% of current cases are reinfections - with Omicron V Delta mainly before.

The reinfection rate for Delta was around a tenth at over 1%.

So a large bulk of the reinfections recorded with Covid have come since Christmas after past Delta patients from last year became more easily reinfected Omicron ones. Usually though with much milder symptoms due to both the vaccinations and the natural immunity that Delta will have fired up.
 
Not a clue why the deaths today are being reported as they are on Gov UK:-

219 in UK -

V 439 last week

England only 185 -

V 409 last week.

England hospitals alone today reported 294. It is always the big catch up day on Tuesday but that 294 was down on the last 2 weeks.

Cannot square that circle. There would have to be huge numbers discounted.

They really seem to be going out of their way to make the data now look not worth bothering with. There have been mutiple changes made over the last 2 weeks that have created more confusion than clarity and limit any meaningful comparisons.

Seems a very odd thing to do so late into the pandemic.
 
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