Russian invasion of Ukraine

Gabriel said:
Which, coupled with enormously crippling economic sanctions, will set Russia back decades. With the West apparently militarily impotent, he can delude himself into believing that Russia can be resurgent and that the world order is irrevocably changing, but after decades enjoying improved living standards and softer lifestyles, it’s hard to imagine how Russians will stomach a decade of self-inflicted hardship.
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Perhaps the alternative of being shot or sent to Siberia might influence them?
 
Chippy_boy said:
I just find some opinions that if we can just hold out a bit longer Putin will just pack up and go home, staggeringly naive.

The only way he stops this is when there's something he can "sell" to his electorate.
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Maybe worth thinking about medium term possible outcomes:

1. Putin puppet regime in whole of Ukraine

2. Partitioned Ukraine, puppet regime in Eastern portion

3. Russia retreats in defeat, Zelinskiy democratic govt across whole of sovereign Ukraine

Bearing in mind that we've had a form of (2) in place for many years already, (3) in its entirety seems very, very unlikely
 
domalino said:
It's not propaganda that 2,000 people were arrested for protesting, the biggest since Navalny was arrested and 20,000 people were arrested and beaten.

It's not propaganda that Russia has taken down twitter and Facebook to stop people seeing what's going on.

It's not propaganda that they've closed down the only Russian TV station that aired negative opinions of the government.

It's not propaganda that dozens of high profile Russian celebrities have spoken out against the war.


Putin is not doing these things because he has universal support for his invasion. A crackdown on free press and media comes when things are getting unruly and you need to stop the damage.
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We have anti war protesters in the UK who are generally disliked by the majority. Probably similar in Russia.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
I'm not equating the two but there are plenty on our side believing our propaganda too. The Russian people don't support this, the army are turning back, the Ukrainians are winning etc, the Chinese will stop this etc.

The Russian people and army are behind their leader and he's marching in to take Ukraine and fuck the consequences. That's about it.
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Yep, As a couple of posters have said their other halfs are Russian and lived here for 25 years, And after watching all our negative news on Putin & this War in this time period they believe none of it and still trust him. So that doesn't bode well for the average Russian being spoon fed state media 24/7. He's telling every single one of them the West is trying to Destroy Russia.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Perhaps the alternative of being shot or sent to Siberia might influence them?
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Perhaps, but the situation today is markedly different from the situations in the 1930s or 1950s. Russians have gotten used to the luxuries and freedoms enjoyed elsewhere, and for younger ones in particular, a prolonged war can only lead to greater disenchantment. Putin certainly has a stranglehold on his own people, but that will prove increasingly difficult to maintain.
 
The blue phantom said:
Yep, As a couple of posters have said their other halfs are Russian and lived here for 25 years, And after watching all our negative news on Putin & this War in this time period they believe none of it and still trust him. So that doesn't bode well for the average Russian being spoon fed state media 24/7. He's telling every single one of them the West is trying to Destroy Russia.
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warsawinstitute.org

Two-Thirds of Russians See US as the Biggest Enemy

Although the Cold War ended three decades ago, the attitude of Russian authorities and citizens remains the same, with the United States still being the country's number one enemy.
warsawinstitute.org warsawinstitute.org
 
bellsouth said:
My wife is Russian, she’s lived in the UK for 25 years and whilst definitely not a Putin supporter fits into that 70% as does her father, a very intelligent man, whom I respect a lot. It’s honestly very difficult for me to get my head around their views which are basically that Russians in East Ukraine have been persecuted, murdered etc by a fascist Ukraine over the years and that Putin has up til now done everything he can for a peaceful solution but now has been left with no other option (oh and NATO takes is share of the blame in all this too). These are of course completely opposite to my views but arguing has become impossible - it’s literally like arguing to a mirror - I say ‘you’re being lied to’ - they say ‘no, you are being lied to’.
It’s difficult for me to understand how smart people can think like this, all I’ve come up with is that this belief that the west manipulates the truth has been ingrained in them for decades that it just becomes who they are.
The whole situation is very sad
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Most people don’t want to think their country are the bad guys. Most Russians will not accept they are bombing Ukrainian cities. The invasion is not an invasion, it is a peace keeping special operation and largely welcomed by Ukrainians. Russians have to cling to that because the alternative is that they are the aggressor and the ‘fascists’ in this conflict and that is something they cannot accept.

The Ukrainians are portraying this as their ‘Great Patriotic War’. Kyiv has been bombed by Hitler and now Putin. They are creating their own heroic resistance and symbolism, which in turn reinforces the idea of nationhood and identity and it is ideas that last.

I have no idea if this conflict will last another day, a week or a month, but the longer it drags on, selling the idea that this is a ‘liberation’ and Ukrainian cities are not being levelled becomes harder, and more entrenched will be the attitudes of the Ukrainians themselves.
 
The blue phantom said:
Yep, As a couple of posters have said their other halfs are Russian and lived here for 25 years, And after watching all our negative news on Putin & this War in this time period they believe none of it and still trust him. So that doesn't bode well for the average Russian being spoon fed state media 24/7. He's telling every single one of them the West is trying to Destroy Russia.
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Yes, there were interviews with educated Russians on the radio last night all saying the same thing: their parents, family etc largely supported Putin and had been brought up to see the West as their persecutors. And they believe just as strongly as we do that we are being lied to by the media.

I've seen the power of a biased media first hand in this country and have seen that it can utterly swing majority opinion when drip fed for years.
 
Didsbury Dave said:
The insurgency will be bloody and costly but he won't care. I guess that links with china and his gas supplies and further negotations with the west will save his economy too. I don't believe he's blundering into this with no end game. I think the end game is a New World Order.
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A lot of it hinges on how bloody and costly I suppose but the hope I have is the international outrage, altho it could start to tail off over months of time.

I predicted he wouldn’t invade and the massing of troops on the border was just a warning to the West so what do I know.
 
BobKowalski said:
Most people don’t want to think their country are the bad guys. Most Russians will not accept they are bombing Ukrainian cities. The invasion is not an invasion, it is a peace keeping special operation and largely welcomed by Ukrainians. Russians have to cling to that because the alternative is that they are the aggressor and the ‘fascists’ in this conflict and that is something they cannot accept.
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Very true. Much like the west and Americans in particular turn a blind eye to the various "questionable" ventures by the US. No-one is whiter than driven snow.
 
Octavian said:
A lot of it hinges on how bloody and costly I suppose but the hope I have is the international outrage, altho it could start to tail off over months of time.

I predicted he wouldn’t invade and the massing of troops on the border was just a warning to the West so what do I know.
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Fair enough. I don't want to be the harbinger of doom here and I don't know how this will play out either.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Very true. Much like the west and Americans in particular turn a blind eye to the various "questionable" ventures by the US. No-one is whiter than driven snow.
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At least in the West, we're legally allowed to hold our government to account through protests and democratic elections.

I get the point you're trying to make, but comparing today's western world to Russia is chalk and cheese. At this moment in time is any Western country literally invading another sovereign country, committing war crimes and brutally murdering women and children? We even have evidence that they're planning further invasions of a second sovereign country.

Maybe we should let them crack on and do whatever they want because 'Murica invaded 'Nam half a century ago?
 
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