The Title Race - 2021/22

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Arsenal play the late game today and the early kick off on Saturday. Their midweek game v the Dippers, (who played early on Saturday and don't play again until Forest in the cup late next Sunday) is sandwiched in between. Bad timing for the Arse.
Bad timing has nothing to do with it. Got to give them a leg up to keep them in the race or Sky won't get their Super Sunday when we play them in April.
 
Bad timing has nothing to do with it. Got to give them a leg up to keep them in the race or Sky won't get their Super Sunday when we play them in April.
Leicester played in Europe so the game today had to be Sunday. The villa game at 12 30 was picked for tv before the Liverpool game was moved. It’s just bad luck nothing more. Less of the conspiracy bullshit please it’s tiring.
 
That’s a lot in 10 games when they’ve only dropped 18 points (2 defeats and 6 draws) in 28 games already. Plus they’re on an 8 game winning run, and have only dropped 7 points (1 defeat and 2 draws) in their last 17 games.

They’re in better winning form now than when they were dropping more points earlier in the season, and Diaz looks a great signing for them.

Them dropping 10+ points would mean either:
3 defeats and 1 draw (11 points dropped)
1 defeat and 4 draws (11 points)
2 defeats and 2 draws (10 points)
0 defeats and 5 draws (10 points)

I can see both teams dropping points before the end of the season (well, it’s a certainty someone or both will as we play each other). But I’m not sure it’ll be 10+ points.

I think they’ll match or slightly better their 89 points season trajectory. I think we’ll get close to if not match our 93 points season trajectory. So that’s no more than 5-7 points dropped each:
1 defeats and 2 draws (7 points dropped)
2 defeats and 0 draws (6 points)
0 defeats and 3 draws (6 points)
1 defeat and 1 draw (5 points)
… each.
I just see with big games qnd tough games coming up for them and us more points will be dropped especially with both teams still in the other 2 cups
 
The closer we get to the end of the season, the more concerned I am about goal difference. If we beat the scousers, that will probably be irrelevant but if we lose??? We really need to start punishing teams, 4,5 or even 6. We take our foot off the gas too much and it could cost us long term
 
The closer we get to the end of the season, the more concerned I am about goal difference. If we beat the scousers, that will probably be irrelevant but if we lose??? We really need to start punishing teams, 4,5 or even 6. We take our foot off the gas too much and it could cost us long term
I've said this before but imagine both teams going into the last game of the season on 89 points and both with a goal difference of 70
 
I had voted 85 to 89, but as we get closer to the end, I think it's increasingly likely that is not going to be enough.

Liverpool can get a maximum of 96, and even allowing for us beating them (hardly a "given") then that's 93. I would not put it past them to win the rest of their games, and certainly I'd be surprised to see them drop more than 6 points including losing to us.

Of course if they were to beat us, they could still lose 2 other games and get 90 points. Also I think they are likely have a better GD than us, even if we do beat them. So I think this looks like at least 91 points being needed.

i.e. we need at least 22 points from our remaining 10 games, realistically 7 or 8 more wins and dropping points in no more than 3 games.
 
City (69 points, GD +50)
Liverpool (66 points, GD +53)
Crystal Palace (A) - 14th March​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Arsenal (A) - 16th March​
Won 3-0 last season.​
Burnley (A) - 2nd April​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Watford (H) - 2nd April​
Not in the league last season​
Liverpool (H) - 10th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Man City (A) - 10th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Wolves (A) - 16th April​
Won 3-1 last season.​
Aston Villa (A) - 16th April​
Lost 2-7 last season.​
Watford (H) - 23rd April​
Not in the league last season.​
Everton (H) - 23rd April​
Lost 0-2 last season.​
Leeds (A) - 30th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Newcastle (A) - 30th April​
Drawn 0-0 last season.​
Newcastle (H) - 7th May​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Spurs (H) - 7th May​
Won 2-1 last season.​
West Ham (A) - 15th May​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Southampton (A) - 15th May​
Lost 0-1 last season.​
Aston Villa (H) - 22nd May​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Wolves (H) - 22nd May​
Won 4-0 last season.​
Brighton (H) - DATE TBD​
Won 1-0 last season.​
United (H) - DATE TBD​
Drawn 0-0 last season.​

Corresponding fixtures last year:
Played​
Won​
Drawn​
Lost​
Goals For​
Goals Against​
GD​
Points​
City
9​
6​
3​
0​
15​
4​
+11​
21​
Liverpool
9​
3​
3​
3​
12​
12​
0​
12​
(Watford game not included for either)

Both teams could win every game (bar the game against each other) but nobody in their right mind would swap our fixtures for theirs.

Still like our chances, will like them even more if we beat Palace tonight. Still think high 80's will be enough.
 
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City (69 points, GD +50)
Liverpool (66 points, GD +53)
Crystal Palace (A) - 14th March​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Arsenal (A) - 16th March​
Won 3-0 last season.​
Burnley (A) - 2nd April​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Watford (H) - 2nd April​
Not in the league last season​
Liverpool (H) - 10th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Man City (A) - 10th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Wolves (A) - 16th April​
Won 3-1 last season.​
Aston Villa (A) - 16th April​
Lost 2-7 last season.​
Watford (H) - 23rd April​
Not in the league last season.​
Everton (H) - 23rd April​
Lost 0-2 last season.​
Leeds (A) - 30th April​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Newcastle (A) - 30th April​
Drawn 0-0 last season.​
Newcastle (H) - 7th May​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Spurs (H) - 7th May​
Won 2-1 last season.​
West Ham (A) - 15th May​
Drawn 1-1 last season.​
Southampton (A) - 15th May​
Lost 0-1 last season.​
Aston Villa (H) - 22nd May​
Won 2-0 last season.​
Wolves (H) - 22nd May​
Won 4-0 last season.​
Brighton (H) - DATE TBD​
Won 1-0 last season.​
United (H) - DATE TBD​
Drawn 0-0 last season.​

Corresponding fixtures last year:
Played​
Won​
Drawn​
Lost​
Goals For​
Goals Against​
GD​
Points​
City
9​
6​
3​
0​
15​
4​
+11​
21​
Liverpool
9​
3​
3​
3​
12​
12​
0​
12​
(Watford game not included for either)

Both teams could win every game (bar the game against each other) but nobody in their right mind would swap our fixtures for theirs.

Still like our chances, will like them even more if we beat Palace tonight. Still think high 80's will be enough.
That's a great post. Thanks for sharing it.
 
Ain't a chance in hell Liverpool are dropping 9/10pts
I'd have to say I agree with this. The stats are one thing, but apart from their "wobble" around Christmas, Liverpool rarely look like dropping a point. I would not be shocked if they won every game from here on in, which is why our head to head is IMO going to be vital.

Other than playing us, I think only Arsenal away and Southampton away are going to trouble them at all.
 
I'd have to say I agree with this. The stats are one thing, but apart from their "wobble" around Christmas, Liverpool rarely look like dropping a point. I would not be shocked if they won every game from here on in, which is why our head to head is IMO going to be vital.

Other than playing us, I think only Arsenal away and Southampton away are going to trouble them at all.

I think the rags will be another tricky one for them as will Villa but generally I agree, they could win all of their games.

Mentally they are fully set on their first target, which is winning all of their games and getting to the Etihad with the chance to beat us and get on top.

It's whether they can do that, whether they can then go on and keep winning and, most importantly, whether we can keep winning too.

What's odd is that both teams seem weaker. Defensively they concede some shocking chances the opposition inevitably miss. And offensively we can look short of ideas at times. But yet the potential points tally is still so high for both teams. It is one hell of a rivalry.
 
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