Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fred_Quimby]

My first post on here.

Have we forgotten what Hitler did? Is this Poland without the support we gave them? Are we to just 'allow' Putin to move into a democratic, free country? The excuse is 'but he has nukes' and we do nothing. Is he going to use them if we step in to defend Ukraine?

I don't know the answer but we have to stop him. We didn't think twice about Iraq and Kuwait.

 

[west didsblue]

Whilst we'd all love that ,there's very little chance of it happening

This thread is littered with predictions that have totally underestimated the Ukrainian response to Russian aggression. I wouldn’t like to pretend to know what will happen in this latest battle but I wouldn’t rule anything out including a humiliating defeat for Russia.

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

This thread is littered with predictions that have totally underestimated the Ukrainian response to Russian aggression. I wouldn’t like to pretend to know what will happen in this latest battle but I wouldn’t rule anything out including a humiliating defeat for Russia.

Russia are sending in a load of clueless half arsed twats in spray painted transit vans and clapped out old soviet tanks that are totally unsuited to the environment.

Ukraine has home advantage and the advantage of western modern equipment and training.

I know who my money’s on.

 

[Invisible Man's Bandage]

Russia are sending in a load of clueless half arsed twats in spray painted transit vans and clapped out old soviet tanks that are totally unsuited to the environment.

Ukraine has home advantage and the advantage of western modern equipment and training.

I know who my money’s on.

Add to that the biggest advantage of all that the Ukrainians have over the Russians.

The fact that they are hugely motivated to defend their country whereas the average Russian soldier (regular or conscript) doesn't think that potentially losing their legs or life is worth even a square metre of Ukrainian territory. It was fine when they thought that they would just be on an unopposed outing into Kyiv but a whole world of difference now they are seeing friends and comrades killed or crippled for life.

 

[mosssideblue]

Was there any confirmation that resupply of weapons reached the Donbas area before Putin started this latest attack?

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

Was there any confirmation that resupply of weapons reached the Donbas area before Putin started this latest attack?

I don’t think they would confirm it, let the Russians think they are up against a couple of Ak47s and then unleash the anti tank missiles.

 

[mosssideblue]

Add to that the biggest advantage of all that the Ukrainians have over the Russians.

The fact that they are hugely motivated to defend their country whereas the average Russian soldier (regular or conscript) doesn't think that potentially losing their legs or life is worth even a square metre of Ukrainian territory. It was fine when they thought that they would just be on an unopposed outing into Kyiv but a whole world of difference now they are seeing friends and comrades killed or crippled for life.

That is a huge motivation, but having more advanced weapons, a far better understanding of the landscape coupled with superior, live and accurate intelligence gives me belief the Ruskies will again fail.

 

[west didsblue]

Was there any confirmation that resupply of weapons reached the Donbas area before Putin started this latest attack?

I think a lot will have happened over the last few weeks in terms of resupplying Ukraine that we’ll only find out about after the war.

 

[mosssideblue]

I don’t think they would confirm it, let the Russians think they are up against a couple of Ak47s and then unleash the anti tank missiles.

Agree. Have to assume though that they are armed to the teeth

 

[mosssideblue]

I don’t think they would confirm it, let the Russians think they are up against a couple of Ak47s and then unleash the anti tank missiles.

And whilst those in Odessa await, maybe convert another one or two Ruskie ships into submarines to give Pootin something else to think about

 

[metalblue]

That is a huge motivation, but having more advanced weapons, a far better understanding of the landscape coupled with superior, live and accurate intelligence gives me belief the Ruskies will again fail.

Add in that the ruSSians have gone in half arsed again without sorting out their units properly from the mish mash that retreated from the north then you have to give them more than a boxers chance.

The ruSSians are going for overwhelming numbers- maybe rumours they are trying to tie to a date are true which will surely be a disaster in the long run even if they get some earlier limited successes in pushing Ukrainian troops back a few miles. We already see in the south there are reports of partisan Ukrainian forces attacking them in areas they occupy. Add in the heavy offensive weapons that are now coming - the Americans are training Ukrainian forces on the use of their howitzers for example - this is going to be a living hell for the invaders no matter what they achieve in the coming few days/weeks, if anything. I’d even go as far as to say I’d not be surprised if they don’t hold anything much more than Crimea at the end of this.

 

[west didsblue]

Add in that the ruSSians have gone in half arsed again without sorting out their units properly from the mish mash that retreated from the north then you have to give them more than a boxers chance.

The ruSSians are going for overwhelming numbers- maybe rumours they are trying to tie to a date are true which will surely be a disaster in the long run even if they get some earlier limited successes in pushing Ukrainian troops back a few miles. We already see in the south there are reports of partisan Ukrainian forces attacking them in areas they occupy. Add in the heavy offensive weapons that are now coming - the Americans are training Ukrainian forces on the use of their howitzers for example - this is going to be a living hell for the invaders no matter what they achieve in the coming few days/weeks, if anything. I’d even go as far as to say I’d not be surprised if they don’t hold anything much more than Crimea at the end of this.

It’s certainly possible that they’ll be booted out of Crimea as well if things go well for Ukraine in the Donbas. Total disaster for Russia would be losing Sevastopol as their main Black Sea port which they leased from Ukraine even before the 2014 invasion. Can’t see Ukraine agreeing the renewal of that lease if they retake Crimea.

 

[Gabriel]

What I’ve never understood about Russia’s plan after it immediately started to go awry, is just what in God’s name would they do with Ukraine even if they somehow won. Not only would suppressing its population be impossible, but the financial costs of rebuilding the country would cripple Russia for decades and that’s before we consider the fact that sanctions would not be lifted. I’ve seen it described as an all or nothing approach, but in truth it’s a nothing or nothing approach. Madness.

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

And whilst those in Odessa await, maybe convert another one or two Ruskie ships into submarines to give Pootin something else to think about

Its possible Odessa is now more than out of reach, they tried to stretch the Ukraine army across multiple fronts and it failed. If the fighting is now focused on Donbas any movement of tank columns will probably be met by drones. It would be suicide to roll tank columns elsewhere now, only thing the Russians have at the moment are cruise missiles. How many of them do they have left?

 

[mosssideblue]

Its possible Odessa is now more than out of reach, they tried to stretch the Ukraine army across multiple fronts and it failed. If the fighting is now focused on Donbas any movement of tank columns will probably be met by drones. It would be suicide to roll tank columns elsewhere now, only thing the Russians have at the moment are cruise missiles. How many of them do they have left?

The consensus from the military experts on the news channels is that they don't have many left. No idea what that means relatively though

 

[feedmpenzaandhewillscore]

The consensus from the military experts on the news channels is that they don't have many left. No idea what that means relatively though

If it gets to that point then potentially there is a stalemate situation and the Russians consolidate in Donbas. They don’t seem to have the capability to attempt large land grabs like they did in the early days of the conflict and by doing it they are opening themselves up to being ambushed.

 

[KS55]

What I’ve never understood about Russia’s plan after it immediately started to go awry, is just what in God’s name would they do with Ukraine even if they somehow won. Not only would suppressing its population be impossible, but the financial costs of rebuilding the country would cripple Russia for decades and that’s before we consider the fact that sanctions would not be lifted. I’ve seen it described as an all or nothing approach, but in truth it’s a nothing or nothing approach. Madness.

Gas, gas, gas

 

[Gabriel]

Gas, gas, gas

Perhaps, but I’m not even sure that would compensate the cost of rebuilding and controlling the country,

 

[KS55]

Perhaps, but I’m not even sure that would compensate the cost of rebuilding and controlling the country,

The amount of gas in the East would fulfil 100% of Europes needs for the foreseeable future. Without it, Russia would lose a huge income. So exploiting it or even just holding it is a stop loss programme.

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The amount of gas in the East would fulfil 100% of Europes needs for the foreseeable future. Without it, Russia would lose a huge income. So exploiting it or even just holding it is a stop loss programme.

You think? Ukraine apparently has been a net importer of gas for many years. Even if the reserves are genuinely vast, it would take a very long time indeed to ramp up production to meeting all of Europe's needs.

Natural gas in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

The only sensible hard logic I can find for Putin's invasion is that he saw his kleptocracy was collapsing under the weight of its own corruption so needed a triumph to keep the populace onside.

But given the various deranged outpourings from Putin and henchmen since the start of the year, it seems more and more likely that he genuinely believes his own fascist propaganda. Who knows? We jut have to hope the Russians keep on losing on the ground. I've no idea how likely that is, but it's certainly turned out better than most believed possible at the start, whatever happens next.