Russian invasion of Ukraine

roubaixtuesday said:
You think? Ukraine apparently has been a net importer of gas for many years. Even if the reserves are genuinely vast, it would take a very long time indeed to ramp up production to meeting all of Europe's needs.

en.wikipedia.org

Natural gas in Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

The only sensible hard logic I can find for Putin's invasion is that he saw his kleptocracy was collapsing under the weight of its own corruption so needed a triumph to keep the populace onside.

But given the various deranged outpourings from Putin and henchmen since the start of the year, it seems more and more likely that he genuinely believes his own fascist propaganda. Who knows? We jut have to hope the Russians keep on losing on the ground. I've no idea how likely that is, but it's certainly turned out better than most believed possible at the start, whatever happens next.
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The gas remains unexploited as yet, but it is vast. It needs western money to develop it.
Putins motivation is putting back together the soviet umma. The gas here is a happy by product which can pay for rebuilding. The man is seriously deluded and, therefore, dangerous.
 
CNN say there are approx a thousand civilians at the steel works , maybe why the troops are fighting on , how do we get supplies into them and weapons , they must run out at some point . Wish we would let them have planes now
 
kaz7 said:
CNN say there are approx a thousand civilians at the steel works , maybe why the troops are fighting on , how do we get supplies into them and weapons , they must run out at some point . Wish we would let them have planes now
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They are reportedly getting some supplies in - but haven’t disclosed how for obvious reasons. All they have said is it is very complicated.
 
SWP's back said:
It’s so strange to watch crystal clear images of artillery shells hitting things having been used to grainy images from wars gone by or the marvels of Hollywood special effects and/or cgi.
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Quite staggering how a drone, that costs a hundred bucks or so, is a complete game changer for ground conflicts.
 
Russia has begun dropping "bunker-buster" bombs on a Mariupol steel plant where Ukrainians are refusing to surrender, the commander of the Azov Regiment of the National Guard has claimed


Kremlin troops have taken control of Ukraine's eastern city of Kreminna, the regional governor said today.

Luhansk governor Serhiy Gaidai told a briefing that Ukrainian troops had now withdrawn from the city.

"Kreminna is under the control of the 'Orcs' (Russians). They have entered the city," Mr Gaidai said.

"Our defenders had to withdraw. They have entrenched themselves in new positions and continue to fight the Russian army."

He went on to say Russian forces had attacked "from all sides

news.sky.com

Ukraine war latest: Putin wants to end war, says Trump - but 'we'll see what happens'

Donald Trump has been asked about the state of peace talks after his team met with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. He said we will have to "see what happens" - adding the Russian president want to "end the war". Follow the latest.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
 
SWP's back said:
It’s so strange to watch crystal clear images of artillery shells hitting things having been used to grainy images from wars gone by or the marvels of Hollywood special effects and/or cgi.
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Imaging technology is advancing at a rapid rate. You can get a 4k video camera with a really good quality lens that sits in the palm of your hand for very little money these days capable of producing really sharp images at a decent frame rate. 10 years ago to get anywhere near that kind of picture quality you'd be looking at something much larger and costing many thousands of pounds.
 
Some of the recent threats coming out of Russia are hilarious...

A lot of the go something like this:

If Western nations continue to provide arms to Ukraine, Russia may be forced to take hostile action!

Should Finland or Sweden join NATO, Russia may be forced to invade one or more of its neighbors!

These sorts of threats remind me of an old joke in the USA regarding Los Angles police. The joke, accompanied by video went like this:

Los Angeles police officer discharges his gun at fleeing suspect: Bang! Bang, bang! and then shouts:

"LAPD! Stop!"

Bang bang!

"Or I'll shoot!"
 
Gabriel said:
What I’ve never understood about Russia’s plan after it immediately started to go awry, is just what in God’s name would they do with Ukraine even if they somehow won. Not only would suppressing its population be impossible, but the financial costs of rebuilding the country would cripple Russia for decades and that’s before we consider the fact that sanctions would not be lifted. I’ve seen it described as an all or nothing approach, but in truth it’s a nothing or nothing approach. Madness.
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And that's a point global political leaders should be making day after day.
 
Invisible Man's Bandage said:
Add to that the biggest advantage of all that the Ukrainians have over the Russians.

The fact that they are hugely motivated to defend their country whereas the average Russian soldier (regular or conscript) doesn't think that potentially losing their legs or life is worth even a square metre of Ukrainian territory. It was fine when they thought that they would just be on an unopposed outing into Kyiv but a whole world of difference now they are seeing friends and comrades killed or crippled for life.
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..........and that they have come into this country to fight what are to all intents and purposes their 'brothers' in a type of civil war.
 
Gabriel said:
What I’ve never understood about Russia’s plan after it immediately started to go awry, is just what in God’s name would they do with Ukraine even if they somehow won. Not only would suppressing its population be impossible, but the financial costs of rebuilding the country would cripple Russia for decades and that’s before we consider the fact that sanctions would not be lifted. I’ve seen it described as an all or nothing approach, but in truth it’s a nothing or nothing approach. Madness.
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A Russian friend of mine can't understand why they would want it either, or more to the point, why go to war over it.

The country is poor and extremely corrupt, so why not simply buy the support and influence at whatever cost? In hindsight it would have been so much cheaper.

He used to have a lot of respect for Putin, but now considers him a fool and I'm sure that many other Russians feel the same.
 
Slipper One said:
A Russian friend of mine can't understand why they would want it either, or more to the point, why go to war over it.

The country is poor and extremely corrupt, so why not simply buy the support and influence at whatever cost? In hindsight it would have been so much cheaper.

He used to have a lot of respect for Putin, but now considers him a fool and I'm sure that many other Russians feel the same.
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Ukraine isnt poor and corrupt
 
kaz7 said:
Ukraine isnt poor and corrupt
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Well kaz7, he knows far more about Ukraine than I do and I suspect you.

His mother died in Kyiv last year while visiting his aunt and he sends his aunt money every month so she can have her cancer treatment. He has visited Kyiv on a number of occasions, so I'd be more inclined to listen to him with his personal experience of the country than you. Unless of course you are more familiar with the country and people and then I would of course gladly defer to you.
 
Slipper One said:
Well kaz7, he knows far more about Ukraine than I do and I suspect you.

His mother died in Kyiv last year while visiting his aunt and he sends his aunt money every month so she can have her cancer treatment. He has visited Kyiv on a number of occasions, so I'd be more inclined to listen to him with his personal experience of the country than you. Unless of course you are more familiar with the country and people and then I would of course gladly defer to you.
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He has probably tried to get a puppet into power but failed already.

He knew that everyday without one of hos puppets in power in Ukraine is another day closer to them moving irreversibly towards democracy and freedom. And each step away from Russia makes it more difficult.

Kleptocratic Russia is locked in to destroying emerging symbolic threats in neighbouring countries. They fear contagious pro-democracy sentiment rising in Russia and toppling the elite.

See China also cracking down in Hong Kong and pushing back against their relative freedoms as compared to the mainland.
 
kaz7 said:
Ukraine isnt poor and corrupt
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Ukraine is poor for sure, at least by European standards.

GDP per capita is ~$4.3k, similar to countries like Namibia and Mongolia.

Russia is around $11k. Bulgaria is the lowest EU country again at ~$11k. UK is ~$45k

en.wikipedia.org

List of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org

Corruption is rather more subjective I guess, but there is a corruption index.

Ukraine ranks #117, not much better than Russia #129. UK is #11, with Denmark and NZ in the lead.

www.transparency.org

2020 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore the results

How does your country measure up in the 2020 Corruption Perceptions Index?
www.transparency.org www.transparency.org
 
Ukraine is massively corrupt - as a result of puppet leaders installed by Moscow with the primary objective of being pro-Russia and the secondary objective of screwing up Ukraine as much as possible.
 
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