The Title Race - 2021/22

  • Thread starter Thread starter Deleted member 81382
  • Start date Start date
Status
Not open for further replies.
Colin Bells Holdall said:
I am sure we beat the rags to the title on GD.
If pts and GD are the same then Goals scored are next and the scousers are ahead of us on that.
Win the games and GD/ GS don’t matter.
Click to expand...
I know that, I just think it’s unlikely that we would lose one and they would draw one. I think either us or them or both will end up winning all games left
 
BrazilianBlue (Gus) said:
Someone needs to explain to me the obsession over GD. How unlikely would it be for us to be tied with them in points at the end? IF they win, it will be with more points than us, not the same. Just play to win, forget about that
Click to expand...

It's difficult to see how GD will come in to it. It would need City to draw the next two games and Liverpool to win two and loose one to put us on level points (82) with 3 games remaining. There may be other permutations. So as you say forget about GD.
 
berryblue said:
It's difficult to see how GD will come in to it. It would need City to draw the next two games and Liverpool to win two and loose one to put us on level points (82) with 3 games remaining. There may be other permutations. So as you say forget about GD.
Click to expand...
City lose 1 and Liverpool draw one brings it down to goal difference.
Very possible.
 
We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.

Game by game their chances evaporate.

It’s the only way I can deal with the pressure, to look at the mathematical probabilities. It’s stacked in our favour.
 
Withnail said:
By the time Everton play tomorrow they could be in the bottom 3. Hopefully, this will trigger a performance of the season for them and they can nab a draw.
Click to expand...
They’ll be staying in there, awful side. Literally have 0 confidence they can get anything.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.

Game by game their chances evaporate.

It’s the only way I can deal with the pressure, to look at the mathematical probabilities. It’s stacked in our favour.
Click to expand...
69% according to Betfair Exchange are our chances.

Although at one point it was as high as 90%…
 
BrazilianBlue (Gus) said:
Someone needs to explain to me the obsession over GD. How unlikely would it be for us to be tied with them in points at the end? IF they win, it will be with more points than us, not the same. Just play to win, forget about that
Click to expand...
I don't think it will go to GD, but there's a sense that a couple of run ins where gd have been important for City. And if Liverpool and City drop points, it'll likely be only one game and a Liberpool draw and City defeat isn't a wild, impossible prediction.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.

Game by game their chances evaporate.

It’s the only way I can deal with the pressure, to look at the mathematical probabilities. It’s stacked in our favour.
Click to expand...
I like to look at the bookies' odds after we have played to see our odds shortening and theirs drifting.
The bookies rarely get it wrong so it gives me a sense of calm.
 
Johnny Mars Bar said:
We’re enormously more likely to win the league now than before we kicked off today. And then, we were enormously more likely to win the league than before we played Brighton.
Click to expand...

I get what you mean, but probabilities haven't changed significantly, let alone *enormously more*. See 538, it's 65:35 City.

Both teams will have more difficult final 5 games than Watford/Everton. Liverpool's are more challenging on paper, because they play Newcastle away just 60 hours after Villarreal and because they visit Villa and Southampton around games vs Spurs and Chelsea.
 
Last edited:
I think we now have 3 levels of possible points dropping

Very possible if the opposition turn up and play at their best

They play spurs we play Hammers


marginal if either us or them take them lightly

We both play wolves
We both play Villa
We both play Newcastle

not likely unless either of us have an off day

We play leeds, they play Saints

Everton today on recent history, seasons form and sensibility is 3 points for the red scouse, but you can only hope.
 
urban genie said:
I think we now have 3 levels of possible points dropping

Very possible if the opposition turn up and play at their best

They play spurs we play Hammers


marginal if either us or them take them lightly

We both play wolves
We both play Villa
We both play Newcastle

not likely unless either of us have an off day

We play leeds, they play Saints

Everton today on recent history, seasons form and sensibility is 3 points for the red scouse, but you can only hope.
Click to expand...
On paper we should both win all our remaining games, but it doesn’t often work like that.

I don’t know if the CL semis will keep us both honest or tire either of us out.

Exciting times though.

The pressure is on them right now, they need to win 6 games, we need to win 5.
 
Manchester33 said:
On paper we should both win all our remaining games, but it doesn’t often work like that.

I don’t know if the CL semis will keep us both honest or tire either of us out.

Exciting times though.

The pressure is on them right now, they need to win 6 games, we need to win 5.
Click to expand...
Pressure also insofar if they lose a game we need to drop points in two games, where even, god forbid, we lose a game we only need them to drop points in one and it's back in our hands.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Unread Posts

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top