The Title Race 2022/23

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AndyP68 said:
It’s going to be close. If we beat them at home we are in with a good chance. If we don’t then it’s tough.

Assuming the game is tomorrow and we win we are 2 points behind with 11 games to play. A draw and it’s 5 and a defeat it’s 8. I can’t see us clawing back 8.

I don’t buy it that they will crumble. They’ve won games in the last minute and are playing well. The pressure will build though.

If they win it they will be worthy winners. I don’t think they’ve cheated and play good football and better them than the rags or dippers.

If we win, it will rank amongst our finest possibly the best since 2012.
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Why? For me, It won’t beat the seasons we beat the dippers by one point and the 100 point season.
 
AndyP68 said:
It’s going to be close. If we beat them at home we are in with a good chance. If we don’t then it’s tough.

Assuming the game is tomorrow and we win we are 2 points behind with 11 games to play. A draw and it’s 5 and a defeat it’s 8. I can’t see us clawing back 8.

I don’t buy it that they will crumble. They’ve won games in the last minute and are playing well. The pressure will build though.

If they win it they will be worthy winners. I don’t think they’ve cheated and play good football and better them than the rags or dippers.

If we win, it will rank amongst our finest possibly the best since 2012.
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Clearly that game is key, but I think Liverpool will be as important. They've taken 30 pts at home this season, and just 11 pts away from home.

Arsenal have to go to Anfield, while we play both of them at the Etihad.

City would be favourites to gain 5/6 points across those two matches.
 
bluenova said:
Clearly that game is key, but I think Liverpool will be as important. They've taken 30 pts at home this season, and just 11 pts away from home.

Arsenal have to go to Anfield, while we play both of them at the Etihad.

City would be favourites to gain 5/6 points across those two matches.
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How can you get 5 points from 2 matches ?
 
I’m very confident, perhaps overly so, that we’ll take care of Arsenal at home

It’s the other games that worry me. Away to Palace for example
 
Newman123 said:
Tbh we're a young team and went from 2 seasons at 8th and one at 5th to being in a title race. We're also not Liverpool/UTD where the media is trying to convince everyone we're the best team in the world.

Our players/team are celebrating so hard cause they dont think winning the league/being the best team is their god given right like the rag cunts/Liverpool lot think.
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Becoming rather unlikable with these celebrations and last minute winners
 
I just want us to have a really strong end to the season. If we do that, things will take care of themselves. If Arsenal win the league with a 90+ points total, then fair play to them.

I'd hate a scenario where both teams are scrapping to hit 85 points.
 
Alfie Budd said:
Nice piece of work. Thanks for going to the trouble of doing this.
I see that Arsenal play on Friday night before coming to the Etihad the following midweek giving them maximum preparation time. I doubt our visit to Brighton will be happening that weekend due the the FA Cup semis with one or both teams looking like they’ll be involved there. We’ll very possibly have a Wembley trip on Sunday afternoon to deal with before playing a well-rested Arsenal on the Wednesday.
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Convenient eh
 
I’m still feeling very confident the title is ours- Arsenal still have tough fixtures away to come , Anfield and our place - if they do it then all credit to them, but for me we are still going to do it
 
FWIW, at this point last season, we won 9 and drew 3 of our remaining 12 games (including draws away at Palace and home to Liverpool). That would put us on 88 points this time.

Another thing of note. IF you care about expected points calculations, Arsenal are still overachieving at the rate they were earlier in the season. However, they're overachieving slightly less compared to their xG in both for and against columns than they were earlier in the season.
 
JewelZee said:
I'm missing something maybe? I not only believe we can win 12 on the bounce, I'm expecting it, but I'm not looking to jinx us. I'm just saying Arsenal will drop a bucketful of points from now 'til seasons end. I'm going to say 10 to 12. We can take this up at season's end, Meanwhile CTID.
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urban genie said:
tbh at this moment I am too busy enjoying the rags humiliation than about the maths of this.

bur yeah arse can drop points, but so can we tbh, we will just have to see.
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I'm just feeling, though, that we're at different point in the arcs of our respective seasons. That's what gives me hope. I believe they've peaked and, actually, what looks like a mentality monster performance against Bournemouth would have absolutely been a 3-0 or 4-0 stroll in the park for them earlier in the season. Same with Villa. Now their performances are getting tight (in the sense of tense). By contrast, after stuttering all season after the first month or so we're now looking ominous. No, I don't think they'll fold, they're far too good for that.
It'll be a close-run thing, I believe, either way, for them or for us. One point in it, two at the outside. Maybe even on goal difference.
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
Why? For me, It won’t beat the seasons we beat the dippers by one point and the 100 point season.
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Because of the attempt to derail us by the charges, the disruption of the world cup, the fact we aren’t firing on all cylinders and the fact that 3 on the trot is extremely rare. It will be an incredible achievement. They are all incredible but to fight for this takes something quite special given the background
 
A great win over Newcastle to keep the pressure on, then Arsenal find a way to win despite being 2-0 down. Credit to them, they're showing a really strong mentality to go and win the title.

Pressure rises with every game now. European football resumes for them. The relegation battle makes every point a real fight. On one hand you look favourably on their ability to keep winning from losing positions. On the other, you question why they are falling behind against teams they should beat.

Ultimately it comes down to us. The heart and fight against Newcastle was what impressed me the most. If we can get Stones fit to the end of the season then we have a great chance of going on a run. Akanji is a liability. Dias and Ake were defending like their lives depended on it. Foden is back performing. Haaland is full of fight. Grealish the same and Bernardo is back to chasing everything. The desire is there so a winning run isn't out of the question. Plenty of tough games for both teams now, but if we can be within 3pts after we play them then I think the wheels could come off their challenge considering how new to this they are.
 
The big unknown on this run-in is if the extra pressure of City playing in the CL and later stages of the FA Cup will impact badly on us. Arsenal will place little importance on the Europa League and will play reserves because they are already essentially qualfied for next season's CL.
The other factor will be the absurd international break. We, more than most clubs are a team which thrives on momentum and have already suffered because of this "stop/start" season.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
The big unknown on this run-in is if the extra pressure of City playing in the CL and later stages of the FA Cup will impact badly on us. Arsenal will place little importance on the Europa League and will play reserves because they are already essentially qualfied for next season's CL.
The other factor will be the absurd international break. We, more than most clubs are a team which thrives on momentum and have already suffered because of this "stop/start" season.
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If we get past Leipzig, getting a favourable draw in the CL is potentially huge. Ideally we’d want Real Madrid, Napoli and the winners of PSG v Bayern in the opposite half to us. That would leave a much more straightforward (on paper) route to the final, like the scousers had last season. That would hopefully take the pressure off a little in the title race.
I’m sure it won’t work out that way - we’ll more than likely get a brutal draw!
 
We'll need KDB to get back to something vaguely resembling his normal self. He was bloody awful against Newcastle and honestly that was not atypical of his recent performances (that stunning goal aside). We are SO reliant on him to create decent chances and assists and with him so badly misfiring, it's like fighting with one arm behind our back.
 
jrb said:
Merson’s been drinking again.

View attachment 71097
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Arsenal's next 3:
Fulham (A)
Palace (H)
Leeds (H)

Arsenal's next 7 after that:
Liverpool (A)
West Ham (A)
Southampton (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Brighton (H)

Somehow I get the feeling it won't be their next 3 that are league defining, although we do need to beat Liverpool (H) in that time.
 
MCFC1993 said:
Arsenal's next 3:
Fulham (A)
Palace (H)
Leeds (H)

Arsenal's next 7 after that:
Liverpool (A)
West Ham (A)
Southampton (H)
Man City (A)
Chelsea (H)
Newcastle (A)
Brighton (H)

Somehow I get the feeling it won't be their next 3 that are league defining, although we do need to beat Liverpool (H) in that time.
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Fulham away won't be easy, they're having a great season.
 
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