US Politics Thread

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SWP's back said:
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If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.
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Agree. Its far to early to look at pooling data. Even in the run in it tends to be way out and the Dems generally do well in the only votes that count. If there is a quiet confidence about the dems then there is absolutely a sense of chaos and incompetence about the GOP and no signs of that changing any time soon.
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
If there’s one theme I’ve noticed with Biden it’s that he does seem to consistently outperform the layman’s expectations at the ballot box. Call it a shy Biden effect maybe, but I think lots of less vocal people tend to vote for him as a stable/status quo candidate and a moderating influence. I think he’ll always get a few points extra from the Don’t Knows because he’s a safe choice.

I saw this at the 2020 primaries (when I personally wanted to see a more progressive candidate), the 2020 election and now we’re starting to see it in this cycle as well.
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Yep and without tooting my own horn, I’ve been steadfast on him (well his performances at the ballot box) since 2019 and have been correct every time. Especially relevant in the Trump thread where it appears 90% think Trump is a dead cert.
 
SWP's back said:
Yep and without tooting my own horn, I’ve been steadfast on him (well his performances at the ballot box) since 2019 and have been correct every time. Especially relevant in the Trump thread where it appears 90% think Trump is a dead cert.
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I’ve also said a few times in that thread that I don’t see Trump’s path to victory. The maths just doesn’t math for me. Covid deaths, more Gen Z voters, increased polarisation. He isn’t getting new votes from anywhere and in some places demographics alone will see him get substantially less.

His only way of winning is to suppress turnout but his very presence on the ballot significantly motivates the opposite. He will lose and by 2028 Texas will be a blue state - and then the GOP are staring down the barrel of decades out of power and a significant leftward swing in the Overton window.
 
TinFoilHat said:
Would Trump instigate a "civil war" on the Texas border just before an election?

Looking the the situation down there it looks like MAGA's last stand.
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Texas is an interesting place politically. It's been GOP run for years and it's top state politicians have huge corruption issues. They really don't have a good story to tell.

The demographics are moving rapidly away from them. It's a growing state with lots of new businesses moving in and a lot of population spreading out of the big cities. I think it had a 45 / 55 split for Trump last time out but its a gap that has been narrowing for years. It used to be rock solid Red but the dems have a chance.
 


So a major bipartisan deal is ready to vote on, billions for boarder, money for Ukraine, Isreal, Taiwan etc etc, all addressed.


the GOP in the house look to be voting against it. and somehow are banking on being able to sell to there base that the emergency at the boarder will get fixed without the money for the emergency at the boarder they are banging the drum over?
 
SWP's back said:
As a bettor myself, long may it continue as I’ve had some great odds.
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Are you betting on the 2024 election outcome?

Look - it's one thing to post something on a forum expression disdain for bettors - it's an entirely different thing to bet against the odds.

There's a bunch of very, very smart people watching odds who could give a shit who wins the Presidency - but if odds favor a bet, tons of currency will flood in. The Mama-Poppa MAGA idiot family aren't going to control betting odds.
 
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grunge said:


So a major bipartisan deal is ready to vote on, billions for boarder, money for Ukraine, Isreal, Taiwan etc etc, all addressed.


the GOP in the house look to be voting against it. and somehow are banking on being able to sell to there base that the emergency at the boarder will get fixed without the money for the emergency at the boarder they are banging the drum over?
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Will this measure even reach the floor, or is that not a factor for bills passed by the Senate and turned over the the House for a vote? - I'm honestly not sure how congressional rules work in this case.

If a House vote does not occur on this, or if the House fails to pass this bill - Democrats need to hang this around the neck of Republicunts in the 2024 elections. It's insane how much unpopular shit the Republicans have foisted on America - in a rational world, Biden would win by 75% or more.
 
TinFoilHat said:
Would Trump instigate a "civil war" on the Texas border just before an election?

Looking the the situation down there it looks like MAGA's last stand.
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From the sounds of it he's all over the senate republicans to vote down the border bill. If they do it just shows they have absolutely no interest in governing and just want power and money.

Theyve been banging the border drum since Biden took over and now have a bill that has measures to actually close the border if migration gets too high. But no, Donald want chaos so fuck everything.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
Texas is an interesting place politically. It's been GOP run for years and it's top state politicians have huge corruption issues. They really don't have a good story to tell.

The demographics are moving rapidly away from them. It's a growing state with lots of new businesses moving in and a lot of population spreading out of the big cities. I think it had a 45 / 55 split for Trump last time out but its a gap that has been narrowing for years. It used to be rock solid Red but the dems have a chance.
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Apparently Ted Cruz is shitting himself, his race is extremely close and he has fuck all republican money cos Trump takes it all.
 
Blue_Lightsaber said:
But we live in the age of stupidity!

I don't even know why people bother with education and degrees when they're all wanting to burn books and be stupid!
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In terms of politics - I agree.

In terms of someone just out of High School/College looking to be hired - well, I think both of us agree that a degree is at least helpful.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
Sorry -- also -- as a few of us brought up -- the NH polls headed in predicted a Tump win percentage point-wise that turned about to be double what actually transpired vs. Haley. That's pretty good evidence that there's a "silent majority" (as @Uncle Wally One Ball put it) out there . . .
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Polls are all over the place - Biden way behind, Trump in trouble, Trump slightly behind, Nicky Haley has a chance...whatever... I'm going with gut feel/previous majority poll results/bettors. Biden is in big trouble; a felony conviction against Trump will make a big difference. It's very early though in 2024 - factors not currently in play might make all the difference.

IMO the inevitable Biden-v.-Trump Presidential race is currently a coin flip, but favoring Trump. Whereas - a felony conviction against Trump prior to the election - might make all the difference.

For maximum impact, the hoped-for conviction has to occur days prior to the election - otherwise the MAGA media machine will respond, downplaying any conviction, and rapidly diluting its effect. If the only felony conviction against Trump is for hush money payments to Stormy Daniels... Democrats are in big trouble.
 
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super_city_si said:
Apparently Ted Cruz is shitting himself, his race is extremely close and he has fuck all republican money cos Trump takes it all.
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This will be the issue for many Republicans. No money and a terrible record that the dems can go after.

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
It's easy to site polls for one trend or another.

Which - IMO - makes the inevitable Biden-v.-Trump Presidential race a coin flip. Whereas - a felony conviction against Trump prior to the election - might make all the difference.

For maximum impact, the hoped-for conviction has to occur days prior to the election - otherwise the MAGA media machine will respond, downplaying any conviction, and rapidly diluting its effect. If the only felony conviction against Trump is for hush money payments to Stormy Daniels... Democrats are in big trouble.
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I don't think it's that simple. The Trump civil fraud trial is yet to conclude and that will be a bad day for Trump. We know the base will ignore any bad news but as we keep saying the base is not enough.

The Stormy D case is fairly minor but it's still bad. And could see him jailed. Even a suspended sentence is bad news. It confirms he's a liar.

But after that any of the other cases will play out extremely badly. And if he delays them enough to get to November without a start or significant progress, that will also piss people off. Voting for Biden is also a vote to allow the prosecution of Trump to continue. What more incentive do people need?
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
I don't think it's that simple. The Trump civil fraud trial is yet to conclude and that will be a bad day for Trump. We know the base will ignore any bad news but as we keep saying the base is not enough.

The Stormy D case is fairly minor but it's still bad. And could see him jailed. Even a suspended sentence is bad news. It confirms he's a liar.

But after that any of the other cases will play out extremely badly. And if he delays them enough to get to November without a start or significant progress, that will also piss people off. Voting for Biden is also a vote to allow the prosecution of Trump to continue. What more incentive do people need?
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The Trump civil fraud case isn't going to sway anyone. Because third party accounting rules in force at the time, coupled with tangential depreciation along the elliptic curvature of the asset deferred time tensor clearly shows that Trump has no liability... huh?!?, whatthefuck!!!... no lay person is going to understand this.

The Stormy Daniels hush money case is going to have very minor impact.

And the other cases aren't (very likely) going to go to trial before the election.

If you're counting on the electorate turning against Trump because his felony trials are delayed... well, I hope you're right. But let's be honest... you're engaging in wishful thinking.
(I was all in for Trump!!! but then his felony trial was delayed - now, I'm not voting and the missus is now voting for Biden... really???)

In reality, delayed trials will not sway enough voters either way to make a difference.

Hell... FogBlue even doubts that a felony conviction will make the slightest difference. I strongly disagree due to recently exit polling of Republican caucus voters... but who knows.

55% Trump as next US President versus 45% Biden for me ATM (Haley, Kennedy, Harris and so on are less than 1 %).
 
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