The calculated risk would've been:
Will he be found guilty or innocent?
Did he do it?
Would he do it again if he did do it?
Would we stand to gain more by having him for a season or two before he was found guilty, & then losing him for several months after?
Losing him could be akin to losing any player to a long-term injury, which no one can legislate for.
We took a risk previously on an injured Gundog who couldn't play for months, but that turned out OK in the long-term.
Are there better alternatives for the money with less risk?
Decisions decisions decisions... It's a calculated risk I'd have taken a punt on considering Xhaka, Toney & Paqueta regaining his Brazil spot after being cleared by his country's FA.
City in August 2023:
Will he be found guilty or innocent? We genuinely don't know. This is news to us and has caught us by surprise.
Did he do it? We have no way of knowing, we have no inside information and the window shuts in a week.
Would he do it again if he did do it? Hypothetical, but the problem is that he's being investigated right now.
Would we stand to gain more by having him for a season or two...? We don't know how long it will take for a verdict to be issued. Could be as early as November 2023. We don't know the full extent, but the punishment could be severe. We could be without him for a very long time and the severity may affect his form. The allegations carry a criminal element in the form of spot-fixing. There are also other targets available.
Nobody can legislate for long-term injury, but you can legislate for buying a player you know to be under investigation. What's more, the circumstantial evidence against him does not look favourable.
We took a calculated risk on Gundogan and lost him in his first season for six months. The addition of Gundogan did not materially benefit City in his first season. He came good later. We therefore think that Paqueta - currently at greater risk than Gundogan was in August 2016 - is not a risk worth taking.
Are there better alternatives...? We don't necessarily need better but we do need comparable. We believe Matheus Nunes to be a good long-term option and eminently achievable. The addition of Kovacic, brilliance of KDB, reliability of Bernardo and continuing emergence of Foden can cover all bases. We have observed what going for a player at all costs can do to a club.
Summary:
Most decisions in football carry calculated risk. They do not demand undue risk though. Trying to sign Paqueta at that time, when so little was known, would have been reckless. We know that we can get him further down the line. Have we considered insurance implications? Could we get insurance if the player has a pre-existing disciplinary matter? If you're allegedly involved in illicit South American betting circles then what's to say our insurers may be twitchy about providing for him? Possibly not, but we don't know.
Our owners have been rewarded for being bold and ambitious in the past, but not desperate and needy. One of their great strengths has been to show restraint when all temptations have been hanging in front of them.
