PL charge City for alleged breaches of financial rules

Prophet of Doom said:
Heard the Palace Chairman moaning that teams should follow the rules - which is quite easy for a team on the PL gravy train happy to finish between 12th to 17th every season confident that the teams coming are restricted and doomed to go down
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I heard Parish at the end of last week on Talksport and I thought he was OK.
 
blueste41 said:
I'm a betting trader, we don't set the odds you do by choosing which outcome to put your money on. The more money that goes on a particular outcome the lower the odds of that outcome becomes. It has to be that way because we work on something called an overround, essentially this means the odds are adjusted so whatever the actual outcome is we make the same profit.
The difference in odds of us winning the league and being relegated are irrelevant because those two markets are independent of each other.
The true odds of a market are more indicative at betting exchanges where the odds are set by traders buying and selling each side of the market at a price others are willing to accept (in much the same way stocks are bought and sold).
If you look at the trades for the two markets you mention you will see that they are not that dissimilar to the odds at the bookies.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.229393513
The truth of it is that if we were 2000/1 we would have taken on a lot more liability than we have, people would have then layed off their bets at the exchange for a huge profit and currently be sunning themselves on their private island in the Caribbean!
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Thanks for the reply.

I know how betting and markets/over rounds work bud, only as an amateur but, I do think this one is a line cast out to catch some mugs by making it a 'reasonable' punting option by dropping the price.

It ain't going to happen anyway and I think @csit17 posted earlier in the thread, it'd likely be deemed a wriggle out void bet if the worst happened at a 'high at bookies'.
 
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blue b4 the moon said:
Thanks for the reply.

I know how betting and markets/over rounds work bud, only as an amateur but, I do think this one is a line cast out to catch some mugs by making it a 'reasonable' punting option by dropping the price.

It ain't going to happen anyway and I think @csit17 posted earlier in the thread, it'd likely be deemed a wriggle out void bet if the worst happened at a 'high at bookies'.
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We can't manipulate the market from odds that should be 2000/1 down to 12/1 as you suggest. Lets say that bookies were offering 2000/1 but traders at BFEX would sell you that bet at 12/1:- So you buy £200 of city to go down at 2000/1 and then sell it at BFEX for 12/1, this simple trading calculator shows what your profit would be which in turn informs you of our exposure if we were to offer 2000/1.
I'm also not certain of the assertion that bets will be void as the market rules state that bets will be settled based on the league table.

IBAS1.JPG
 
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blue b4 the moon said:
Thanks for the reply.

I know how betting and markets/over rounds work bud, only as an amateur but, I do think this one is a line cast out to catch some mugs by making it a 'reasonable' punting option by dropping the price.

It ain't going to happen anyway and I think @csit17 posted earlier in the thread, it'd likely be deemed a wriggle out void bet if the worst happened at a 'high at bookies'.
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That’s what I thought.
They’re going to get a decent amount of interest at 12’s from those who are just dumb greedy and see nice profit rather than those who have analysed the market and the (un)likelihood of City’s relegation.
 
pauls said:
Parish Interestingly mentioned the "alleged " Independent panel can be challenged in the high court which occurred with one of his ex Managers so any attempted shenanigans should be seized on by Pannick and Co.
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A friend of mine worships at the same synagogue in North London as Lord Pannick.

He says he's a top fella, a character, with a quite brilliant sniper like mind and memory.
 
blueste41 said:
I'm a betting trader, we don't set the odds you do by choosing which outcome to put your money on. The more money that goes on a particular outcome the lower the odds of that outcome becomes. It has to be that way because we work on something called an overround, essentially this means the odds are adjusted so whatever the actual outcome is we make the same profit.
The difference in odds of us winning the league and being relegated are irrelevant because those two markets are independent of each other.
The true odds of a market are more indicative at betting exchanges where the odds are set by traders buying and selling each side of the market at a price others are willing to accept (in much the same way stocks are bought and sold).
If you look at the trades for the two markets you mention you will see that they are not that dissimilar to the odds at the bookies.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.229393513
The truth of it is that if we were 2000/1 we would have taken on a lot more liability than we have, people would have then layed off their bets at the exchange for a huge profit and currently be sunning themselves on their private island in the Caribbean!
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As has been said on here many times before - odds reflect the money not the probability. Great further explanation thankyou.
 
blueste41 said:
I'm a betting trader, we don't set the odds you do by choosing which outcome to put your money on. The more money that goes on a particular outcome the lower the odds of that outcome becomes. It has to be that way because we work on something called an overround, essentially this means the odds are adjusted so whatever the actual outcome is we make the same profit.
The difference in odds of us winning the league and being relegated are irrelevant because those two markets are independent of each other.
The true odds of a market are more indicative at betting exchanges where the odds are set by traders buying and selling each side of the market at a price others are willing to accept (in much the same way stocks are bought and sold).
If you look at the trades for the two markets you mention you will see that they are not that dissimilar to the odds at the bookies.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/football/market/1.229393513
The truth of it is that if we were 2000/1 we would have taken on a lot more liability than we have, people would have then layed off their bets at the exchange for a huge profit and currently be sunning themselves on their private island in the Caribbean!
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What about the opening odds before anyone has bet anything?
 
blueste41 said:
We set them based on probability derived from any applicable data we have. In some instances we just set all possible outcomes at evens and let the market form itself. Not many trades are needed before the market sets itself anyway.
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The wisdom of the crowd.

I always thought a soft bookmaker used WOTC while a sharp bookmaker backed its own information like Pinnacle.

Then a level up again you get a Company like Smartodds or Starlizard who take on and beat the bookies…mostly in Asian markets.
 
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Cobwebcat said:
The wisdom of the crowd.

I always thought a soft bookmaker used WOTC while a sharp bookmaker backed its own information like Pinnacle.

Then a level up again you get a Company like Smartodds or Starlizard.
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They are essentially value betters, very good ones but they are just spotting value in the market.
 
Bookies just copy the Betfair exchange, rarely will you find odds bigger at the Bookies then the exchange and if you do it won’t last long.
 
Just checked very little money has been matched on City to be relegated, I will worry when I see big money lining up to back City to be relegated at the minute it’s chancers/guessers at play with small stakes.
 
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