US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[Robanompivenov]

My prediction

 

[SebastianBlue]

Or that the folk who have staked over £130 Million on Trump to get the gig are convinced they are on a winner. I mean there's now over 150% to be made on every £1 backing Kamalla. It does seem a steal going off folk saying she'll win in a landslide.

Is it possible that the **** could take another 5 - 10 Million votes to go with the 75 Million he took in 2020, That's how I'm looking at it. I mean it just means you now have 85 Million fuckin Lunatics compared to 75.

That does not contradict my post in any way. ;-)

 

[AliBobbyJ]

After the QPR match in 2012 I ended up in a pub off Deansgate with the day's highlights on TV. Up came the dismayed faces of the rags as they learned City had won and when we saw the old pisscan appear I said or probably yelled "Sod off Ferguson, your day is done." This time tomorrow it will the same for Trump.
"SOD OFF YOU ORANGE ****. "

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I offer you this. My favourite comment so far...

 

[Plays By Sense Of Smell]

Is it just me that can hear Michael Buffer whilst reading those results

Trump looks to have flattened Harris and is about to go for the pin, when the lights go out, and there’s an eerie ‘DONNNGG!’

A coffin lid opens and a seemingly invincible Biden rises to lay the smack down on trump’s candy ass…

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)

The only thing betting markets tell you about is the betting markets.

Having said that I still think the fat old bastard is going win, I always have.

 

[bluenova]

I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)

Political betting is a bit odd. I won quite big on Trump in 2020, because he was still hot favourite even after it was clear he wasn't going to win (it didn't stop him declaring victory a few hours later). Harris is definitely the value bet now, as she's almost certainly got a better chance than the polls predict, but that still means you're risking money. If you do make a small bet, then one way to look at it, is that, if things are genuinely close, then at some point the results coming in will reflect that, and the odds will get closer, letting you cash out. Never any guarantees though.

There's definitely an element of wishful thinking on both sides. The betting markets are strongly suggesting the polls are pro-Harris. But I've also heard so many people who seem to be projecting the "it can't be real that Trump is going to get in again after everything", and assuming the polls are actually pro-Trump.

Ultimately, there's a lot of evidence to support either hypothesis, that realistically we haven't a clue - but what I can confidently predict is that we'll get a lot of "See I told you it was going to be a boy" gloating after the election, on what's essentially a 50/50 guess.

 

[Gabriel]

If Harris loses the race, one does wonder what it means for the likelihood of a woman becoming president via election. The Democratic Party will then have run two candidates from a party position of incumbency and lost both times, while the Republican Party appears to have adopted an ever more masculine image. Should Harris lose, even if winning the popular vote like Hilary Clinton, then the system is such that it's terribly difficult to see either party putting a woman at the top of the ticket in 2028.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The dynamic of this is thread is very interesting.

You’ve got a small contingent of us that have been intently following, analysing, discussing, and debating this election for months (even years) in the other US politics threads (that are currently locked). Most with skin in the game as either Americans or, like me, non-Americans that live in the US (and have American children).

You have others—probably most participants—that are just interested in the election on the day and aren’t looking to make any predictions or bold assertions about the why or how or what of the election, they just want to follow along.

Then you have a contingent of posters that were rarely, if ever, seen in the US politics threads, going full Wolf Blitzer, sharing dubious claims, making ignorant but exceedingly confident proclamations, and generally wanting to appear as experts on the subject they have just now decided to care about for the day.

This really is the match thread for the Election.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I find it interesting that there's not a single American woman posting here that we know about, and my guess is, very few if any young people. If Harris is to win, it's these two groups that will rise up.

As such, I am taking nearly all predictions from UK-based FOCs (no offense :)) with a heavy dose of salt.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I still think Harris will win comfortably. The betting follows the money and the money follows the polls. The polls are based upon miniscule samples of people and are almost always wrong. They're more likely to be correct months before the election before bias and Harris led at that point, tons of people haven't just suddenly switched to Trump.

It could go either way but I just can't see Trump winning the really close swing states such as Pennsylvania. It really depends which poll you believe but some have her winning by 3-4%, others it's 50/50 but Trump never seems to lead.

I think even places like Georgia and Nevada will go closer than the polling currently suggests. Either way none of it is posting towards a Trump win. He has a 50/50 chance at best but any other result seems to lean towards Harris.

My prediction

I'm stuck between thinking it's really close in the swing states and Trump has a fighters chance.

To then thinking he doesn't seem to have a solid lead in any of them. They could literally all go to Harris and he could be fighting for Florida where abortion is on the ballot.

On balance I think Harris wins but I've no idea what the map will look like. She could win Florida and lose Penn.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Extra time or straight to penalties?

The pools panel to decide…

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I find it interesting that there's not a single American woman posting here that we know about, and my guess is, very few if any young people. If Harris is to win, it's these two groups that will rise up.

As such, I am taking nearly all predictions from UK-based FOCs (no offense :)) with a heavy dose of salt.

Fully agree. After every election there is always a simple narrative that we should have seen it coming because of x.

The x this year will be women voters and women's rights / health care.

 

[Frank the Yank]

My prediction of final battleground vote shares:

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump)
Georgia - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Michigan - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Nevada - 49 - 50 (Trump)
North Carolina - 48 - 50 (Trump)
Pennsylvania - 50 - 48 (Harris)
Wisconsin - 50 - 48 (Harris)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 286
MAGA - 252

Kamala Harris wins the election.

Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Fully agree. After ever election there us always a simple narrative that we should have seen it coming because of x.

The x this year will be women voters and women's rights / health care.

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

 

[Frank the Yank]

I know the title says US Presidential election but the entire House gets elected and about 1/3 of the Senate.

Both the House and the Senate are in the balance.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.

If she gets NC and loses PA and holds Biden's serve everywhere else, she can still win. GA and WI are the ones that worry me most. If she holds those I don't think Trump has a shot even if she loses PA; the other states he could likely win (NV? AZ? He isn't winning MI if he can't win WI) don't make up enough ground.

 

[johnny crossan]

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

We should have a variant of the Guess The Team Compy - who lines up in red or blue?

 

[Frank the Yank]

If she gets NC and loses PA and holds Biden's serve everywhere else, she can still win. GA and WI are the ones that worry me most.

Let’s be honest, she isn’t holding Bidens serve. NC looks like a pretty big hill to climb. Trump probably wins AZ, GA and perhaps NV. If that happens she had to run the table in PA, MI, and WI. Could happen. Like drawing to an inside straight. It could happen to you will go get to the poor house rather quickly playing poker.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

When you look back Hilary was not a good candidate. Low energy and a sense of entitlement maybe with someone who's back story was too Washington elite. Biden wasn't a great candidate either but he was an obvious choice at that time.

Harris has been careful to avoid overplaying her credentials and experience. Her campaign has been good. Trump has been Trump.