US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I still think Harris will win comfortably. The betting follows the money and the money follows the polls. The polls are based upon miniscule samples of people and are almost always wrong. They're more likely to be correct months before the election before bias and Harris led at that point, tons of people haven't just suddenly switched to Trump.

It could go either way but I just can't see Trump winning the really close swing states such as Pennsylvania. It really depends which poll you believe but some have her winning by 3-4%, others it's 50/50 but Trump never seems to lead.

I think even places like Georgia and Nevada will go closer than the polling currently suggests. Either way none of it is posting towards a Trump win. He has a 50/50 chance at best but any other result seems to lean towards Harris.

My prediction

I'm stuck between thinking it's really close in the swing states and Trump has a fighters chance.

To then thinking he doesn't seem to have a solid lead in any of them. They could literally all go to Harris and he could be fighting for Florida where abortion is on the ballot.

On balance I think Harris wins but I've no idea what the map will look like. She could win Florida and lose Penn.

 

[Frank the Yank]

Extra time or straight to penalties?

The pools panel to decide…

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

I find it interesting that there's not a single American woman posting here that we know about, and my guess is, very few if any young people. If Harris is to win, it's these two groups that will rise up.

As such, I am taking nearly all predictions from UK-based FOCs (no offense :)) with a heavy dose of salt.

Fully agree. After every election there is always a simple narrative that we should have seen it coming because of x.

The x this year will be women voters and women's rights / health care.

 

[Frank the Yank]

My prediction of final battleground vote shares:

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump)
Georgia - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Michigan - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Nevada - 49 - 50 (Trump)
North Carolina - 48 - 50 (Trump)
Pennsylvania - 50 - 48 (Harris)
Wisconsin - 50 - 48 (Harris)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 286
MAGA - 252

Kamala Harris wins the election.

Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Fully agree. After ever election there us always a simple narrative that we should have seen it coming because of x.

The x this year will be women voters and women's rights / health care.

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

 

[Frank the Yank]

I know the title says US Presidential election but the entire House gets elected and about 1/3 of the Senate.

Both the House and the Senate are in the balance.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Good for you for putting out your prediction. Think you are a bit over optimistic.

The key is Pennsylvania, which I very much doubt will be called before midnight local time east coast USA. He’ll it probably might not get decided before 500 am tomorrow.

However, Harris can not win without PA while I can see a pathway for Trump to get 270 LOSING PA.

If she gets NC and loses PA and holds Biden's serve everywhere else, she can still win. GA and WI are the ones that worry me most. If she holds those I don't think Trump has a shot even if she loses PA; the other states he could likely win (NV? AZ? He isn't winning MI if he can't win WI) don't make up enough ground.

 

[johnny crossan]

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

We should have a variant of the Guess The Team Compy - who lines up in red or blue?

 

[Frank the Yank]

If she gets NC and loses PA and holds Biden's serve everywhere else, she can still win. GA and WI are the ones that worry me most.

Let’s be honest, she isn’t holding Bidens serve. NC looks like a pretty big hill to climb. Trump probably wins AZ, GA and perhaps NV. If that happens she had to run the table in PA, MI, and WI. Could happen. Like drawing to an inside straight. It could happen to you will go get to the poor house rather quickly playing poker.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Yep. I am not going to amplify nor underscore your point directly due to my unusually large fear of the hex/jinx.

I will add there's an even simpler narrative as well -- here's a chance to break a glass ceiling, maybe the last one in America. They was once a chance with Hillary Clinton, and several factors combined to muck it up.

I suspect many women want to make sure that doesn't happen again.

When you look back Hilary was not a good candidate. Low energy and a sense of entitlement maybe with someone who's back story was too Washington elite. Biden wasn't a great candidate either but he was an obvious choice at that time.

Harris has been careful to avoid overplaying her credentials and experience. Her campaign has been good. Trump has been Trump.