Majorly flawed way of looking at it. Ederson has no influence on what the takers do, he can't make them put it off target or hit it poorly. All that stat shoes is he and we have had no fortune with penalties.My friend I don't think you understand the HUGE difference between 78% (the expected percentage of converting a penalty) and 97% (the expected percentage of converting a penalty against ederson). you are talking saving 1 out of 33 and saving 7 out of 33.
He moves a split second before it’s taken 100% of the time. All the penalty taker needs to do is put it in the opposite direction.Helps if you dive the right way .
Think people just don’t understand goalkeeping at the highest level and how clinical the finishing is.Majorly flawed way of looking at it. Ederson has no influence on what the takers do, he can't make them put it off target or hit it poorly. All that stat shoes is he and we have had no fortune with penalties.
You think their keeper last night had anything to do with haaland smashing the bar? If penalties are trickling under his body then there would be a case to make about him not saving penalties, they're not, so there isn't.
There'd be nothing but praise on here if Gvardiol and Nunes didn't play like they'd been lobotomised.
That's the frustrating thing that actually isn't his fault but that blows my mind anyway, that 32/33 went in!! Not a single penalty against us in the last 7 years has missed the target with ederson in goal! How is that even possible I don't get it.Not quite. You've not accounted for shots off target.
That's the frustrating thing that actually isn't his fault but that blows my mind anyway, that 32/33 went in!! Not a single penalty against us in the last 7 years has missed the target with ederson in goal! How is that even possible I don't get it.
That would be meaningful if you did a systematic comparison with other PL keepers. And particularly Allison, who has been considered, rightly I think, to be the other best keeper in the league over the last few years. By the way, off the top of my head, it seems to me he saved a last-minute penalty against Palace, at the very least. Haven't checked the others, and I can't quite be bothered. It is normal for a penalty to be scored. That goal is huge when you're facing a top PL striker hitting a dead ball from a distance of twelve yards.
What is abnormal is how shit City players have been at taking them, and I mean by that not even putting them on target, or hitting posts or the bar.
In the last 7 seasons alisson saved 3 out of 12 for liverpool. Again, I don't think you understand just how much worse ederson is than everyone else at penalties. It's a total different stratosphere.That would be meaningful if you did a systematic comparison with other PL keepers. And particularly Allison, who has been considered, rightly I think, to be the other best keeper in the league over the last few years. By the way, off the top of my head, it seems to me he saved a last-minute penalty against Palace, at the very least. Haven't checked the others, and I can't quite be bothered. It is normal for a penalty to be scored. That goal is huge when you're facing a top PL striker hitting a dead ball from a distance of twelve yards.
What is abnormal is how shit City players have been at taking them, and I mean by that not even putting them on target, or hitting posts or the bar.
Can you recall any instance where you have thought ederson should have saved a penalty after it being poorly taken yet it's still gone in? That's a genuine question btw, I'm not saying it hasn't happened but I don't have any recollection of it occurring.Over Ederson's career at City around 80% of pens are scored in the premier league. https://theanalyst.com/2024/05/premier-league-penalties-like-free-goal
That would mean City conceding 26/27 out of the 33 faced rather than the 32 we have done. Maybe we have faced 32 unstoppable penalties but I highly doubt that.
Ederson can be a great goalkeeper and a terrible penalty saver, they aren't mutually exclusive.
It is not a small sample size and the skew is extremely substantial. If our next 5 penalties we face are all smashed against the bar, that would be an insanely unlikely event to occur. Your defense of ederson is that an insanely unlikely (less than 1 in a million probably) event could occur.Can you recall any instance where you have thought ederson should have saved a penalty after it being poorly taken yet it's still gone in? That's a genuine question btw, I'm not saying it hasn't happened but I don't have any recollection of it occurring.
The skew really isn't all that substantial, the small sample size just gives that illusion. If our next 5 penalties we face are all smashed against the bar like haalands was last night, ederson saves none of them but his individual penalties scored against him percentage suddenly falls in line with the league median, are we then going to claim he's gone from a keeper that is a poor penalty stopper to a respectable one despite him not saving one.
The anomaly here isn't that ederson hasn't made a penalty save in a long time, it's that we haven't faced a poorly taken penalty in a long time.
Can you recall any instance where you have thought ederson should have saved a penalty after it being poorly taken yet it's still gone in? That's a genuine question btw, I'm not saying it hasn't happened but I don't have any recollection of it occurring.
The skew really isn't all that substantial, the small sample size just gives that illusion. If our next 5 penalties we face are all smashed against the bar like haalands was last night, ederson saves none of them but his individual penalties scored against him percentage suddenly falls in line with the league median, are we then going to claim he's gone from a keeper that is a poor penalty stopper to a respectable one despite him not saving one.
The anomaly here isn't that ederson hasn't made a penalty save in a long time, it's that we haven't faced a poorly taken penalty in a long time.
Hard to tell if they are poorly taken as he rarely dives the right way. I think Edersons a great goalie and he's improved ten fold in his weaknesses but penalty saving is still a weird area for him. His stats are horrific.Can you recall any instance where you have thought ederson should have saved a penalty after it being poorly taken yet it's still gone in? That's a genuine question btw, I'm not saying it hasn't happened but I don't have any recollection of it occurring.
The skew really isn't all that substantial, the small sample size just gives that illusion. If our next 5 penalties we face are all smashed against the bar like haalands was last night, ederson saves none of them but his individual penalties scored against him percentage suddenly falls in line with the league median, are we then going to claim he's gone from a keeper that is a poor penalty stopper to a respectable one despite him not saving one.
The anomaly here isn't that ederson hasn't made a penalty save in a long time, it's that we haven't faced a poorly taken penalty in a long time.
It is not a small sample size and the skew is extremely substantial. If our next 5 penalties we face are all smashed against the bar, that would be an insanely unlikely event to occur. Your defense of ederson is that an insanely unlikely (less than 1 in a million probably) event could occur.
Don't expect you to recall them all, I can barely recall a handful of them at most but wouldn't you agree if there was one where it was easily saveable but ederson didn't save it, that would probably stand out and stick in your mind? It would be remembered by at least somebody on here surely? Can anybody give us one?No I don't remember in detail all of the penalties but there is zero chance that all 32 were unsaveable.
The standard deviation using 80% scoring rate is 2.3, so using the expected saves of 6.6 (33*0.2) means Ederson is around 2.5 standard deviations away from average which is essentially an outlier. In the opposite direction it would be the same likelihood as saving 12.2 out of 33.
The chances of someone missing the next 5 pens against us is 0.2^5 = 0.032% so not very likely.
33 is a really small sample size for anything when you're turning it into a percentage, there's a 3% swing attributed for every sample, that's far too big. In anything serious, the stats would be dismissed due to such a small sample size.