When you scratch below the surface of small territorial gains over the last few months, the underlying narrative is that Russia is on the ropes, economically and militarily. Several things point towards this: the level of inflation, the extent in the degradation in their oil refining, capacity, the use of North Korean troops on the battlefield, the inability to retake Kursk, the significant reduction in artillery use of late and the state and type of hardware being used on the front line.
Just because people say something will happen and it doesn’t for ages, doesn’t mean it never will. The available, relevant evidence suggests Russia is likely in serious trouble.