The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
youngbob said:
Predicted back in February that we'd pick up 22 points from our next 11 games (including Southampton). And 24 from the last 13.

In reality we've picked up 21, and we need to win at least one our remaining two games and avoid defeat in the other to finish top five. That would take us up to 25 from the last 13 games. I think that's possible. Beating Bournemouth would be a massive help.
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I don't think the position is as precarious as some think it is. We might not win or even draw either match and still qualify.

As I posted earlier, if we win just one and lost the other it still means that Newcastle need a win and a draw, Chelsea and Villa need to win both theirs and Forest need to win all three so you're looking at 9 results going against us (and as I type Forest are currently drawing 1-1 v Leicester at half time).

ALL of those need to happen for us NOT to qualify, and even then we might be OK if Forest get something at Chelsea on the final day, but that's a lot that needs to go against us to knock us out.
 
chesterbells said:
When I was on here earlier this morning there seemed to be a consensus that a Newcastle win would be a good outcome for us. I think your take is overly pessimistic pal; I’d rather say, we’ll need 4 points. I can’t see a scenario where we’d need 6, though I’m prepared to be corrected.
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The only scenario where we could miss out after reaching 69 points would involve us finishing below Villa on GD, which would require Villa to win their next to games by a minimum of 19 goals.
 
robbieh said:
Well. How about teams that while not being consistent have shown glimpses of quality.

We've just been consistently poor. What has got us where we are is a certain level of experience. However the football has been very uninspiring.
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I don't think we've been consistently poor, I think we had a really bad patch due to injuries and two of those players were season long injuries, with other players (Stones, Akanji etc.) also missing much of the campaign.

Despite everything we're still currently 4th on merit and in the FA Cup final and I really don't think the team get enough credit. You can't win everything every season, while that might be an amazing achievement, that WOULD be dull and uninspiring, it would kill the game as everybody, City fans included, would get bored of it. You need competition and a certain amount of jeopardy, it's part of the entertainment.
 
Brightwell Bros. said:
We are the third (or fourth) best team in the country. We're playing the stodgiest football we've played for a long time with a squad at the end of their cycle, but anyone would think we are the shittest team in the league on some comments here. Pep has settled in, we will finish top five comfortably, and we might yet win a trophy. I just don't have it in me to get distraught at an away draw (even against a relegated team) that doesn't cost us anything in the short or medium term.
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Great post, 100% correct.

I don't get all this "we need to win both matches" or "we need 4 points" thing. By my reckoning if we win one and lose one we need NINE other results to go against us not to qualify. We may not need to win either.
 
coolcity said:
I don't think we've been consistently poor, I think we had a really bad patch due to injuries and two of those players were season long injuries, with other players (Stones, Akanji etc.) also missing much of the campaign.

Despite everything we're still currently 4th on merit and in the FA Cup final and I really don't think the team get enough credit. You can't win everything every season, while that might be an amazing achievement, that WOULD be dull and uninspiring, it would kill the game as everybody, City fans included, would get bored of it. You need competition and a certain amount of jeopardy, it's part of the entertainment.
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The start of the season despite getting lots of points we were distinctly average. Then we imploded for a couple of months. Subsequently the patient has stabilized but is still in a fairly moribund state.
 
We will likely be 7th by the time we play Bournemouth. Thats when arses will really start flapping.

We will play Bournemouth in that 7th place 3 days after a cup final which might have gone to extra time / pens with all the cup final emotions - with our Dads Army that can’t play every 3 days !!

Fucked it up yesterday.
 
robbieh said:
The start of the season despite getting lots of points we were distinctly average. Then we imploded for a couple of months. Subsequently the patient has stabilized but is still in a fairly moribund state.
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By our recent standards, yes, but if you watch a lot of the other PL matches you'll soon realise that nobody is really that much better than we are with the exception of the current Liverpool squad. You can't expect 110% every season, you could see how knackered they were in the cup final last season and then for most of the squad it was straight into the international matches. I think it's that, rather than the age of the squad combined with key injuries and an ongoing injury list that has been the main issue. Totally unavoidable and totally understandable.
 
robbieh said:
The start of the season despite getting lots of points we were distinctly average. Then we imploded for a couple of months. Subsequently the patient has stabilized but is still in a fairly moribund state.
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It absolutely amazes me that people think that other teams fighting for Champions League haven't also been distinctly average, on average more distinctly average than us, as they are below us.

Chelsea have taken 1 point out of 6 against Ipswich this year and they were fucking woeful in both games.
Villa went on a run not so long ago where they drew to West Ham, lost to Wolves then drew to Ipswich. They were fucking dogshit in those games.
Forest have currently won one in their last five.

What about these teams exactly screams "more deserving"?

And the whole thing about our performance in the CL being woeful - Yeah? Well there were 12 teams that still got knocked out before us - so how woeful were they?

It's asinine. If we finish in the top 5, we deserve to be in the CL.
 
coolcity said:
Great post, 100% correct.

I don't get all this "we need to win both matches" or "we need 4 points" thing. By my reckoning if we win one and lose one we need NINE other results to go against us not to qualify. We may not need to win either.
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If we just win the 1 we're on 68 points.

Newcastle just need to beat Everton at home to finish above us. Villa should win both games against the awful United and equally poor Spurs. Finish on 69.

For me we need to worry about Chelsea and Forest. Chelsea should beat United. Giving them 66 with their game with Forest to come.

If that game ends as a draw all well and good, otherwise Chelsea get 69 or Forest depending on what happens with Leicester could get 70, although the West Ham game looks tricky.
Under normal circumstances I'd agree with you. But the fact that United and Spurs are basically walk overs at this moment in time I wouldn't be surprised if we need 4 points.
 
coolcity said:
Great post, 100% correct.

I don't get all this "we need to win both matches" or "we need 4 points" thing. By my reckoning if we win one and lose one we need NINE other results to go against us not to qualify. We may not need to win either.
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Have you actually looked at the fixtures ? We will be 7th when kick off against Bournemouth. Love to know how you work out we get top 5 by not winning another game !
 
Prophet of Doom said:
We will likely be 7th by the time we play Bournemouth. Thats when arses will really start flapping.

We will play Bournemouth in that 7th place 3 days after a cup final which might have gone to extra time / pens with all the cup final emotions - with our Dads Army that can’t play every 3 days !!

Fucked it up yesterday.
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Sounds to me like you're flapping already. It's statistically unlikely we'll be 7th by the start of the final match.

There is far too much made of the age thing. Liverpool's average age is only 4 months younger than ours and they just won the league with matches to spare.
 
robbieh said:
If we just win the 1 we're on 68 points.

Newcastle just need to beat Everton at home to finish above us. Villa should win both games against the awful United and equally poor Spurs. Finish on 69.

For me we need to worry about Chelsea and Forest. Chelsea should beat United. Giving them 66 with their game with Forest to come.

If that game ends as a draw all well and good, otherwise Chelsea get 69 or Forest depending on what happens with Leicester could get 70, although the West Ham game looks tricky.
Under normal circumstances I'd agree with you. But the fact that United and Spurs are basically walk overs at this moment in time I wouldn't be surprised if we need 4 points.
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Yes but assuming Newcastle beat Everton, it still means that Chelsea, Villa and Forest all need to win their final 2 matches (assuming Forest beat Leicester, currently 2-1 up with 30 mins to play), and remember Forest have to play Chelsea in the final match. Even Arsenal aren't safe yet.
 
We need 4 points. Chelsea losing earlier means they either get a maximum of 69 points and Forest get 67 or Chelsea get 66 and Forest 70. If we finish level with Villa our goal difference gets us ahead.

It’s less likely we qualify with 68 points, the only really likely scenario that happens is a Forest and Chelsea draw and we finish ahead of Forest on goal difference with Chelsea on 67 points. Villa are unlikely to drop points against Spurs and united.
 
Have to say Villa's last 2 fixtures look to be the best of the bunch right now! Spuds right before the final resting players all over the place and then the (hopefully) dejected Rags after the final.
 
Cumbie Blue said:
Have to say Villa's last 2 fixtures look to be the best of the bunch right now! Spuds right before the final resting players all over the place and then the (hopefully) dejected Rags after the final.
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Just thankful a few of the top contenders play each other in the next matches
 
pavelsrnicek said:
We need 4 points. Chelsea losing earlier means they either get a maximum of 69 points and Forest get 67 or Chelsea get 66 and Forest 70. If we finish level with Villa our goal difference gets us ahead.

It’s less likely we qualify with 68 points, the only really likely scenario that happens is a Forest and Chelsea draw and we finish ahead of Forest on goal difference with Chelsea on 67 points. Villa are unlikely to drop points against Spurs and united.
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That is the correct analysis
 
We need 4 points. Anything less than that and you are leaving it in the hands of others. Bizarrely, if United draw at Chelsea and draw at home v Villa then two points would probably do it! I will be shouting for United in both those games.
 
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