Its quite simple for me, as it stands it's a very tight race, and hard to pick between the teams. If City continue to improve, especially in terms of their defending and giving up of chances, then Arsenal would need to improve likewise in their attacking and creating / finishing of chances.
If you asked me what was more likely, I'd say City improving their defensive side over us improving our attacking. We can do it, I remember the attacking side of our game improving greatly post Dubai trip in 23/24 after a quite a quite stodgy first half of that season, but yeah that's the sort of levels we'd need to hit.