EU referendum

[BigJoe#1]

An interesting point was raised in one of the recent debates.

Given the unease about the EU in Europe in general. What would happen if we voted to remain, then after the forthcoming elections in Germany and France, they held referendums and voted to leave. We, good old Britainwould be left supporting the broken economies of Southern and Eastern Europe. Unlikely I know but not impossible.

 

[Manchester_lalala]

An interesting point was raised in one of the recent debates.

Given the unease about the EU in Europe in general. What would happen if we voted to remain, then after the forthcoming elections in Germany and France, they held referendums and voted to leave. We, good old Britainwould be left supporting the broken economies of Southern and Eastern Europe. Unlikely I know but not impossible.

I'd personally laugh my arse off, I hope it happens.

 

[Ancient Citizen]

European army, who'd of guessed it? Cameron tearing apart our forces for years, it all comes togethor now. I hate that ****.

Indeed. With the French leading the charge against the filthy aggressors in tanks that conk out after 5 miles because all the fucking
petrol stations are on strike. Germans feel guilty for their past nastiness, so tend to let the Brits do all the dirty work in recent conflicts, the Italians
only have reverse gear on their tanks, The Spanish won't fight in the afternoon as it's kip time, and the rest are too skint to scrape up the price of a catapult.
Sleep easy ;-)

 

[Monkfish]

An interesting point was raised in one of the recent debates.

Given the unease about the EU in Europe in general. What would happen if we voted to remain, then after the forthcoming elections in Germany and France, they held referendums and voted to leave. We, good old Britainwould be left supporting the broken economies of Southern and Eastern Europe. Unlikely I know but not impossible.

we would have another referendum and either vote to leave or stay in

Precisely we will never know how many votes are lost to this which is the point being made. Thank you!

no it wasn't, go and re-read your post

 

[mcfc1632]

I really don't think turnout will be that high in Scotland - I sense some apathy by many voters there and they don't seem to be anywhere near engaged in this as they were for their indy ref - many seem to be working out various calculations on what outcome their vote could trigger another indy ref - Gibraltar is the only block that I know of that will be a slam dunk for remain at around 90%

This got me thinking. To this point I have been somewhat 'assuming' that Scotland will be a solid in vote - but I wonder if those that are most keen on Scottish Independence could vote 'tactically'?

If they wanted to secure a repeat referendum in Scotland - the easiest way is for there to be a Brexit vote.

 

[mcfc1632]

I've heard this said a number of times and it needs consideration although it won't change any minds. Personally I think the opposite will happen. Apart from a reversal of Cameron's concession on benefit payments which they have to reject because it goes against Treaty law and they won't allow any of the member states to meddle with the Treaties. It would bring the whole thing crashing down. So they will wait until after we have voted to remain and then reverse the concession. So apart from that initial kick up the arse I think they will treat us with kid gloves because they must be aware that UKIP could possibly gain influence at our next general election (pretty obvious isn't it) and UKIP will hark back to any vindictiveness to strengthen their argument next time around. UKIP have been a thorn in the side of the EP and they won't want to give ANY cause for them to increase in numbers (if they can) or have any further influence in Westminster. That's my take on it. I actually think they will be shit scared to upset us any more.

I agree I think uk leaving would be an utter disaster for the Eu countries as there are so many fragile economies in the eu and they would love to leave if they could. I actually think if vote leave wins the right outcome would be that would be a catalyst for a new Europe based on cooperation not coercion and one where the economic benefits of a single market work for all not just Germany and France. In order to go forwards you need to reject where it is now. Only then will people actually listen and do something about it and we can start again based on a fairer system. Voting in just gives the mandate to closer political integration and more powers moving away from he uk to Brussels ( which really means the Franco German alliance)[/QUOTE]


This I fully agree with but it brings home the level of contempt that the UK is held by the EU leaders.

A leave vote could trigger the collapse of the EU as it is currently constituted - makes you wonder why they gave us the sq root of fuck all in those 'important negotiations'

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

I agree I think uk leaving would be an utter disaster for the Eu countries as there are so many fragile economies in the eu and they would love to leave if they could. I actually think if vote leave wins the right outcome would be that would be a catalyst for a new Europe based on cooperation not coercion and one where the economic benefits of a single market work for all not just Germany and France. In order to go forwards you need to reject where it is now. Only then will people actually listen and do something about it and we can start again based on a fairer system. Voting in just gives the mandate to closer political integration and more powers moving away from he uk to Brussels ( which really means the Franco German alliance)

This I fully agree with but it brings home the level of contempt that the UK is held by the EU leaders.

A leave vote could trigger the collapse of the EU as it is currently constituted - makes you wonder why they gave us the sq root of fuck all in those 'important negotiations'[/QUOTE]


I know but I don't want to see the collapse of countries which I really love in Southern Europe so am hoping we vote leave , then there is a renegotiation and a sensible democratic economic cooperation pact across Europe. At the moment it's not working for us and it's not working for those countries. Germany and France have always been at each other for centuries and the Eu was designed to keep them peaceful. It's done that but the price is now too much for the rest of Europe including us.

 

[hgblue]

This I fully agree with but it brings home the level of contempt that the UK is held by the EU leaders.

A leave vote could trigger the collapse of the EU as it is currently constituted - makes you wonder why they gave us the sq root of fuck all in those 'important negotiations'

I know but I don't want to see the collapse of countries which I really love in Southern Europe so am hoping we vote leave , then there is a renegotiation and a sensible democratic economic cooperation pact across Europe. At the moment it's not working for us and it's not working for those countries. Germany and France have always been at each other for centuries and the Eu was designed to keep them peaceful. It's done that but the price is now too much for the rest of Europe including us.[/QUOTE]
The chance of us voting to leave and the response of the EU being 'ok now bugger off', as is being implied by the Remain side is zero. There would follow a serious negotiation of the UKs place in the EU and if they were to offer us significant concesssions to stay I see no reason why that couldn't be put back to the British people in a second referendum.

 

[YPhrunts]

[QUOTE="hgblue,
The chance of us voting to leave and the response of the EU being 'ok now bugger off', as is being implied by the Remain side is zero. There would follow a serious negotiation of the UKs place in the EU and if they were to offer us significant concesssions to stay I see no reason why that couldn't be put back to the British people in a second referendum.[/QUOTE]

That would mean altering the existing Treaties and that is never going to happen, it can't, it would mean the end of the Union.

 

[cibaman]

I know but I don't want to see the collapse of countries which I really love in Southern Europe so am hoping we vote leave , then there is a renegotiation and a sensible democratic economic cooperation pact across Europe. At the moment it's not working for us and it's not working for those countries. Germany and France have always been at each other for centuries and the Eu was designed to keep them peaceful. It's done that but the price is now too much for the rest of Europe including us.

The chance of us voting to leave and the response of the EU being 'ok now bugger off', as is being implied by the Remain side is zero. There would follow a serious negotiation of the UKs place in the EU and if they were to offer us significant concesssions to stay I see no reason why that couldn't be put back to the British people in a second referendum.[/QUOTE]

THe second referendum would only happen if there were a failure to negotiate a deal. IF the June referendum is to leave, the PM wouldn't have a manadate to negotiate better terms to stay in, and just wouldn't be allowed by the Leavers to even try. HE or she would be out on their ear the moment they even suggested the idea.

 

[hgblue]

[QUOTE="hgblue,
The chance of us voting to leave and the response of the EU being 'ok now bugger off', as is being implied by the Remain side is zero. There would follow a serious negotiation of the UKs place in the EU and if they were to offer us significant concesssions to stay I see no reason why that couldn't be put back to the British people in a second referendum.

That would mean altering the existing Treaties and that is never going to happen, it can't, it would mean the end of the Union.[/QUOTE]
We already have a Eurozone and non Eurozone situation developing and I see no reason why the treaty can't be changed to reflect this? The Eurozone will be free to continue with their project of ever closer union and we'd have a more looser relationship which suits us. Failing that we just negotiate the best possible deal for ourselves outside the EU. I'm not particularly bothered either way.

 

[hgblue]

The chance of us voting to leave and the response of the EU being 'ok now bugger off', as is being implied by the Remain side is zero. There would follow a serious negotiation of the UKs place in the EU and if they were to offer us significant concesssions to stay I see no reason why that couldn't be put back to the British people in a second referendum.

THe second referendum would only happen if there were a failure to negotiate a deal. IF the June referendum is to leave, the PM wouldn't have a manadate to negotiate better terms to stay in, and just wouldn't be allowed by the Leavers to even try. HE or she would be out on their ear the moment they even suggested the idea.[/QUOTE]
Not so imo, prominent Outers like Johnson and Gove aren't actually rabidly anti EU and have said many times they favour being inside a reformed EU. If we vote to leave they would be involved in any exit negotiations and would be inclined to offer a second referendum if significant concessions were offered imo. Johnson said as much in the very early days of the campaign and was quickly hushed up.

 

[Pino]

Meanwhile over in Europe
According to an internal audit published in 2008, MEPs channelled £125,000-a-year allowances for secretaries and research assistants into family-owned businesses, foreign bank accounts and ‘front’ companies.
The Galvin Report revealed that politicians strived to ‘use up’ their portion of a £100million expenses pot without the need to provide receipts.
But the dossier by chief auditor Robert Galvin, from which leaks first emerged two years ago, did not name the worst culprits.
And the day-to-day spending of the European Parliament’s 736 members – 72 of them from the UK – remains secret as they are exempt from Freedom of Information requests.
Various TV companies have filmed MEPs signing in for 300 Euro daily expense allowance and then going home….

An independent UK will no longer have to fund billions in UK contributions to the EU or be restricted in the rate of VAT …. amongst may other things…..

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

THe second referendum would only happen if there were a failure to negotiate a deal. IF the June referendum is to leave, the PM wouldn't have a manadate to negotiate better terms to stay in, and just wouldn't be allowed by the Leavers to even try. HE or she would be out on their ear the moment they even suggested the idea.

Not so imo, prominent Outers like Johnson and Gove aren't actually rabidly anti EU and have said many times they favour being inside a reformed EU. If we vote to leave they would be involved in any exit negotiations and would be inclined to offer a second referendum if significant concessions were offered imo. Johnson said as much in the very early days of the campaign and was quickly hushed up.[/QUOTE]


Agreed . The reality is if we vote out is we would not be out, we would discuss and reach a common accord to stay.

If however we vote to remain those in power at the Eu would not give two shits and would just crack on to create the federal state.

Once they start doing that I can GUARANTEE Dave and George would start saying oh it's awful, the Eu this and the Eu that....

Corbyn might actually say something as well....

 

[marco]

havn't taken any notice of the polls up to now and except from posters on here saying which way they swing i have not met one IN person and that's from loads of people i know, is it the area i am in or a good indication for the outers

 

[SWP's back]

Absolutely piss poor effort at trying to put words in my mouth.

Explain yourself then

 

[YPhrunts]

[QUOTE="hgblue,
Not so imo, prominent Outers like Johnson and Gove aren't actually rabidly anti EU and have said many times they favour being inside a reformed EU. If we vote to leave they would be involved in any exit negotiations and would be inclined to offer a second referendum if significant concessions were offered imo. Johnson said as much in the very early days of the campaign and was quickly hushed up.[/QUOTE]

Because Boris was floating a boat to see where it went which was not very far. He probably realised that he was talking out of the wrong orifice as was Gove.
Mate we are signed up to all the Treaties apart from the Fiscal Pact. The 27 members were very reluctant to give Cameron his concession on welfare benefits and that was only because he probably said to them behind closed doors that if he didn't go back home with something then his reputation would be in tatters and we would likely vote out. What they will do with those concessions after we have voted to remain is kick them into touch. They have to. Either that or they ALL adopt them and Hungary 'aint keen on that.
The madhouse is beyond reform, beyond concessions. The CAP Treaty is set in stone and that is the most expensive part of the budget. If we vote out they will wave goodbye. There won't be another vote unless we ask for one and if we vote out and Cameron starts fucking about asking for concessions then the Tory party will split and anything could happen after that.

 

[cibaman]

[QUOTE="hgblue,
Not so imo, prominent Outers like Johnson and Gove aren't actually rabidly anti EU and have said many times they favour being inside a reformed EU. If we vote to leave they would be involved in any exit negotiations and would be inclined to offer a second referendum if significant concessions were offered imo. Johnson said as much in the very early days of the campaign and was quickly hushed up.

Because Boris was floating a boat to see where it went which was not very far. He probably realised that he was talking out of the wrong orifice as was Gove.
Mate we are signed up to all the Treaties apart from the Fiscal Pact. The 27 members were very reluctant to give Cameron his concession on welfare benefits and that was only because he probably said to them behind closed doors that if he didn't go back home with something then his reputation would be in tatters and we would likely vote out. What they will do with those concessions after we have voted to remain is kick them into touch. They have to. Either that or they ALL adopt them and Hungary 'aint keen on that.
The madhouse is beyond reform, beyond concessions. The CAP Treaty is set in stone and that is the most expensive part of the budget. If we vote out they will wave goodbye. There won't be another vote unless we ask for one and if we vote out and Cameron starts fucking about asking for concessions then the Tory party will split and anything could happen after that.[/QUOTE]

Cameron will not be asking for concessions if we vote out. He will not be PM. Whoever gets the job, most likely Johnson, will only get it on condition that they accept that out means out. The Eurosceptic Tory MPs are not going to get so close to leaving the EU, to actually win a referendum, and then have it snatched away. For many Tories there are no circumstances in which they would consider that further concessions, whatever those may be, would be preferable to leaving the EU.

 

[BigJoe#1]

[/QUOTE]
We already have a Eurozone and non Eurozone situation developing and I see no reason why the treaty can't be changed to reflect this? The Eurozone will be free to continue with their project of ever closer union and we'd have a more looser relationship which suits us. Failing that we just negotiate the best possible deal for ourselves outside the EU. I'm not particularly bothered either way.[/QUOTE]

I have a problem with the eurozone and the no-euro zone. Even though call me Dave assures us that we won't be paying to prop up eurozone countries, I think indirectly we are and we will continue to. For example the Money that we contributing and the EU gives back to us deciding whre we should spend it could I suppose dry up over night and less would come our way whilst the money being used to support the other economies in "invisible" ways would increase accordingly. Will we have any right to audit and check where our contributions are invested?

 

[BigJoe#1]

we would have another referendum and either vote to leave or stay in


no it wasn't, go and re-read your post

Again either you're mis-reading what is written or choosing to be ignorant, not sure which.

I pointed out that UKIP are predominantly considered as having immigration high on their agenda, indeed you could argue it's the only item on their agenda. In these circumstances there could be a number of moderate voters who would be deterred from voting Leave as they would be worried that they'd be classified as being UKIP supporters and racist, which you will find the majority of Brexit voters are neither.

Hope this helps.