EU referendum

[YPhrunts]

So, let me get this right...

We're in a 'club' (the EU) and we don't all get along, but put up with each other because we think there's a common benefit...
Then one of the lads says 'I don't want to be a member any more, I think you're all a bunch of wasters'

Then two weeks later, that lad is supposed to negotiate individually with each of those nations to cut itself a better deal?
Yes, we have goods they want, and they have goods we want... but we import more than we export and there's more of them. I'm really not convinced we'd be holding the upper hand!

Ah, some will say - but we can now negotiate with America or China and cut our own lucrative deals.
Hmmmm - those are two extremely large markets / economic powers, we've just left the EU and are in an 'unstable' condition and we're going to renegotiate a BETTER deal? - dream on.

Every other nation on earth will know that after an EU exit, we'll be 'needing' some results - that doesn't strengthen us, it weakens us. Furthermore, who is going to cut us a better deal and risk losing the far larger market - the EU? It's like undercutting the deal you have with your major customer to please a smaller customer? - business suicide.

Of course, there will be SOME wins - businesses that couldn't sell successfully to the EU could now sell to us, but they aren't going to be improve the quality and safety of their products, they're going to pleased they don't have to meet EU regulations.

You make it sound as if we've got to start wheeling and dealing on June 25 if Brexit win. There are two years before anything will change at all and two years is a long time to organise ourselves for the deals that will follow. It won't be governments doing the horse trading either. It will be businesses. If you think Merkel and Co are going to tell Volkswagen and Bosch etc what they can and cannot do trade wise then you have been taken in. Tariffs will be decided by those directly involved and Merkel and Co are going to have to listen and act on mutual interests.

 

[smudgedj]

You make it sound as if we've got to start wheeling and dealing on June 25 if Brexit win. There are two years before anything will change at all and two years is a long time to organise ourselves for the deals that will follow. It won't be governments doing the horse trading either. It will be businesses.

It´s not actually two years - it´s actually as long as it takes. As in it can be extended if both parties agree.

 

[sir baconface]

same as the ones playing in countries not in the EU ??

Haha. Too logical, mate.

Back to the drawing board, Fanchester.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

It´s not actually two years - it´s actually as long as it takes. As in it can be extended if both parties agree.

Not as easy as that mate.....EU is legally able to offer us a "take it or leave it" deal......and you can guarantee they not going to give us a better deal than the rest of its members.....that just wouldnt be good business....we shouldnt kid ourselves...they will hold all the cards!

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

The process of leaving
Article 50 – the only established legal way to leave the EU – is a major liability. Once triggered, there is no turning back, it excludes the UK from key decisions as well as the final vote and it leaves the EU in charge of the timetable during two years of negotiations, following which the UK could be presented with a ‘take it or leave it’ deal. Our results show that leaving without a preferential trading agreement would dent UK GDP significantly.

 

[BigJoe#1]

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

Not as easy as that mate.....EU is legally able to offer us a "take it or leave it" deal......and you can guarantee they not going to give us a better deal than the rest of its members.....that just wouldnt be good business....we shouldnt kid ourselves...they will hold all the cards

The process of leaving
Article 50 – the only established legal way to leave the EU – is a major liability. Once triggered, there is no turning back, it excludes the UK from key decisions as well as the final vote and it leaves the EU in charge of the timetable during two years of negotiations, following which the UK could be presented with a ‘take it or leave it’ deal. Our results show that leaving without a preferential trading agreement would dent UK GDP significantly.

TB#1. Don't be fooled, when we leave the EU will not be able to survive in its current format. There will be many other countries wanting to have the same choice as we're having right now.

If the EU was a close knit tight community, even then it'd be difficult to hold it together, but as it is it has no chance. We will not be as weak as many in here are suggesting. I think we'll be quite strong given that we will have taken the initiative. Opinion and speculation I know but I do not perceive the EU as being strong and stable enough to cope with our exit and without our money. Either way it will be interesting!

 

[Two Gun Bob]

I have just payed 50% off my apartment in the Dorm for October
Averaging the risk I guess
As these months plod on I feel the country will indeed vote out and rightly so.
My house mortgage got dearer
My Holidays got dearer
The economy is weakened

But you know what it mztters not as we are now in control of our own destiny and that more than makes up for any blips
The right to self determination,nothing more nothing less
And god speed Boris and no to Johny Turk !

 

[FanchesterCity]

You make it sound as if we've got to start wheeling and dealing on June 25 if Brexit win. There are two years before anything will change at all and two years is a long time to organise ourselves for the deals that will follow. It won't be governments doing the horse trading either. It will be businesses. If you think Merkel and Co are going to tell Volkswagen and Bosch etc what they can and cannot do trade wise then you have been taken in. Tariffs will be decided by those directly involved and Merkel and Co are going to have to listen and act on mutual interests.

The business starts right on day 1. As soon as the result is known, businesses will react for good or for bad.
I'm pretty sure governments will be exerting influence on businesses, and even with a direct B2B transaction, the rules of the game will have changed - from the manufacturing standards and regulations through to staffing in multinationals - again for good or for bad.
There is simpler accounting for sales and purchases within the EU, as soon as we leave, we may choose to have a grace period, but business will have to start planning for the transition immediately.

So if you're buying from a German firm, their accounting for UK sales needs to be adjusted too - which costs them. I doubt they will accept a plea of 'lets call it quits because we have to adjust our systems on our side too!'.

Change costs - and our European counterparts will be looking to recoup those costs.

 

[FanchesterCity]

same as the ones playing in countries not in the EU ??

The point was - do you retrospectively issue work permits, or revisit each case on it's own merits.
Plus, of course, for the future we now have to issue permits - but we've not being doing that for EU players - ergo, could we see a change in the ease of using EU players.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

So, let me get this right...

We're in a 'club' (the EU) and we don't all get along, but put up with each other because we think there's a common benefit...
Then one of the lads says 'I don't want to be a member any more, I think you're all a bunch of wasters'

Then two weeks later, that lad is supposed to negotiate individually with each of those nations to cut itself a better deal?
Yes, we have goods they want, and they have goods we want... but we import more than we export and there's more of them. I'm really not convinced we'd be holding the upper hand!

Ah, some will say - but we can now negotiate with America or China and cut our own lucrative deals.
Hmmmm - those are two extremely large markets / economic powers, we've just left the EU and are in an 'unstable' condition and we're going to renegotiate a BETTER deal? - dream on.

Every other nation on earth will know that after an EU exit, we'll be 'needing' some results - that doesn't strengthen us, it weakens us. Furthermore, who is going to cut us a better deal and risk losing the far larger market - the EU? It's like undercutting the deal you have with your major customer to please a smaller customer? - business suicide.

Of course, there will be SOME wins - businesses that couldn't sell successfully to the EU could now sell to us, but they aren't going to be improve the quality and safety of their products, they're going to pleased they don't have to meet EU regulations.

There are other 'lads' in this club that think exactly the same as us, your analogy falls into the same old trap that it is just the uk that has an issue with the club and its eu versus the uk. Isn't it odd the amount of right wing parties that have come to fruition with various degrees of power in the eu with the word 'freedom' in their title ? Below is just a view from Holland - you have the French, Italian and Danish lads gagging to have a referendum too.

Once a beacon of progressive politics, the Netherlands today is a traumatised, angry and deeply confused nation. Support for immigration and the European project are at all-time lows. Synagogues and Jewish schools need police protection from homegrown jihadists, and freedom of expression is under serious pressure. Leading pundits and comedians incite hatred against Muslims in much the same way that antisemites rage against “the Jews”.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/06/netherlands-eu-immigration-liberalism-european


Membership rules to this club will change - the biggest fear for the eu hierarchy is without a shadow of a doubt that the uk will encourage many other eu countries who to date have not been able to get referendums have the excuse to get them.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

TB#1. Don't be fooled, when we leave the EU will not be able to survive in its current format. There will be many other countries wanting to have the same choice as we're having right now.

If the EU was a close knit tight community, even then it'd be difficult to hold it together, but as it is it has no chance. We will not be as weak as many in here are suggesting. I think we'll be quite strong given that we will have taken the initiative. Opinion and speculation I know but I do not perceive the EU as being strong and stable enough to cope with our exit and without our money. Either way it will be interesting!

Thanks for your reply.....Lots of if's, but's and maybe's in there mate....The "outs" havent got a clue what will happen as this has never been done before so have very little weight behind any arguments about leaving the EU......The problem I have as you mentioned...is that the "outs" only have opinion and speculation........I'm no expert on economy or trade deals etc but atleast the "ins" have facts and recent history to base an argument on.....Article 50 is just one "fact" to show why we opening ourselves up for a big fall and a massive risk just not worth taking....comes down to risk/rewards and I've seen alot of reports from people that "dont" like being a member of the EU......but the risk to leaving just isnt worth any rewards in the long term.....

 

[smudgedj]

Not as easy as that mate.....EU is legally able to offer us a "take it or leave it" deal......and you can guarantee they not going to give us a better deal than the rest of its members.....that just wouldnt be good business....we shouldnt kid ourselves...they will hold all the cards!

http://openeurope.org.uk/intelligence/britain-and-the-eu/what-if-there-were-a-brexit/

The process of leaving
Article 50 – the only established legal way to leave the EU – is a major liability. Once triggered, there is no turning back, it excludes the UK from key decisions as well as the final vote and it leaves the EU in charge of the timetable during two years of negotiations, following which the UK could be presented with a ‘take it or leave it’ deal. Our results show that leaving without a preferential trading agreement would dent UK GDP significantly.

So you reckon that Germany and France, both of which are net exporters to the UK, are going to engage in a tariff war? Germany are going to stop selling their cars and France are going to stop selling their anti freeze containing wine, or place such tariff that the UK can´t afford to buy them.

 

[Monkfish]

Gove and Johnson have both said that they want Cameron to continue in the event of Brexit. They are all Eton boys and the school tie comes before the country.

Cameron will know he presided over the countries biggest disaster since WWII, ain't no way he would stick around to watch unemployment grow massively, the GDP fall dramatically, the UK begin to break up and the standard of living collapse. He isnt the brightest PM we have ever had but give him some credit - he wrote a letter preparing to resign over Scotland, tiny in comparison to the nightmare scenario he faces here

 

[Two Gun Bob]

On the inside or the outside out it matters not
What matters is that you really appreciate the implications of each maneover.
This is the most important decision as a member of the British isles than you will ever ever ever make again

Think not of your immediate pocket but think more of your children and your grandchildren
For the love of Crom it has to be out
The right for self determination
Do not decide this for your own selfish means !
Bless you all my British compatriats

 

[FanchesterCity]

There are other 'lads' in this club that think exactly the same as us, your analogy falls into the same old trap that it is just the uk that has an issue with the club and its eu versus the uk. Isn't it odd the amount of right wing parties that have come to fruition with various degrees of power in the eu with the word 'freedom' in their title ? Below is just a view from Holland - you have the French, Italian and Danish lads gagging to have a referendum too.

Once a beacon of progressive politics, the Netherlands today is a traumatised, angry and deeply confused nation. Support for immigration and the European project are at all-time lows. Synagogues and Jewish schools need police protection from homegrown jihadists, and freedom of expression is under serious pressure. Leading pundits and comedians incite hatred against Muslims in much the same way that antisemites rage against “the Jews”.


http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/06/netherlands-eu-immigration-liberalism-european


Membership rules to this club will change - the biggest fear for the eu hierarchy is without a shadow of a doubt that the uk will encourage many other eu countries who to date have not been able to get referendums have the excuse to get them.

Course all the members have issues / concerns, but right now, it's us making the choice to opt out (maybe).
That MIGHT actually be the catalyst for others doing the same - in which case, the picture changes yet again - we can only cross that bridge when we come to it.

I think if we leave, it will be a major blow to the EU - we are one of the big boys, enough to cause it to collapse? - we shall see.

Whatever the repercussion for the EU itself - if we leave, there's a lot of change coming within the UK. It may well be change for the good in the long term, but I'd expect at least an initial negative impact in the first few years after the decision. My own view is that the effect will be negative in the long term too, but that's the crux of the entire debate - and nobody can say for certain, it's pure opinion.

 

[FanchesterCity]

Cameron will know he presided over the countries biggest disaster since WWII, ain't no way he would stick around to watch unemployment grow massively, the GDP fall dramatically, the UK begin to break up and the standard of living collapse. He isnt the brightest PM we have ever had but give him some credit - he wrote a letter preparing to resign over Scotland, tiny in comparison to the nightmare scenario he faces here

If we choose to leave - the smart move would be for him to resign. If it goes pear shaped as he suggests, then he'll have quit on a 'matter of principle' and be proven to be right. If we prosper, then it would always be seen as 'despite him, not because of him' - so either way, it's smart to just resign.
If we stay in - he can probably get as far as the next term (imo).

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

So you reckon that Germany and France, both of which are net exporters to the UK, are going to engage in a tariff war? Germany are going to stop selling their cars and France are going to stop selling their anti freeze containing wine, or place such tariff that the UK can´t afford to buy them.

Again, as I've just mentioned to another poster....you dont know what Germany and France will do and I dont need to make an argument for what they will do if we leave....I'm not wanting to vote out.....all the "leaves" can do is base their reasoning on opinion and false hope that Britain are great and we dont need anyone......(genuine question) I'm no expert but isnt it the EU that will set the tariffs not individual countries? Also shouldnt we be more concerned about what we can sell and not what we can buy......after all its exporting goods that would grow the economy? Buying more than you sell just increases the debt or am I missing something?

 

[BigJoe#1]

Thanks for your reply.....Lots of if's, but's and maybe's in there mate....The "outs" havent got a clue what will happen as this has never been done before so have very little weight behind any arguments about leaving the EU......The problem I have as you mentioned...is that the "outs" only have opinion and speculation........I'm no expert on economy or trade deals etc but atleast the "ins" have facts and recent history to base an argument on.....Article 50 is just one "fact" to show why we opening ourselves up for a big fall and a massive risk just not worth taking....comes down to risk/rewards and I've seen alot of reports from people that "dont" like being a member of the EU......but the risk to leaving just isnt worth any rewards in the long term.....

The facts from the Brexit view are:

1) we will have £8,500,000,000 a year to spend - our net contribution to the EU.

2) In addition to the above figure we will have the money (£5,500,000,000) that we give to the EU that they then give back to us telling us where to spend it. The difference us we will be able to decide where we spend that money.

3) we will have control over our borders in that we can decide which skills we need and we can select who comes here, be they from the EU or elsewhere, something we cannot do right now as we are obliged to accept any EU citizen into our country regardless of their skill set and what contribution they may or may not make.

4) we will be able to recruit nurses,doctors or any other professionals from outside the EU something we cannot do at present as we are obliged to take EU unskilled nationals.

These are FACTS about the Leave campaign.... There are more, many more.

You are correct about the unknown element. But I'm not scared of the Unknown, are you?

 

[Monkfish]

On the inside or the outside out it matters not
What matters is that you really appreciate the implications of each maneover.
This is the most important decision as a member of the British isles than you will ever ever ever make again

Think not of your immediate pocket but think more of your children and your grandchildren
For the love of Crom it has to be out
The right for self determination
Do not decide this for your own selfish means !
Bless you all my British compatriats

you do know that voting in or out means we have enacted self determination, and being able to vote out whenever we want means we still have self determination even if we vote to stay?

for the love of Churchill it has to be remain

 

[sir baconface]

Cameron will know he presided over the countries biggest disaster since WWII, ain't no way he would stick around to watch unemployment grow massively, the GDP fall dramatically, the UK begin to break up and the standard of living collapse. He isnt the brightest PM we have ever had but give him some credit - he wrote a letter preparing to resign over Scotland, tiny in comparison to the nightmare scenario he faces here

Either way, I bet Dave wishes he'd stayed in the Boar's Head.

 

[FanchesterCity]

So you reckon that Germany and France, both of which are net exporters to the UK, are going to engage in a tariff war? Germany are going to stop selling their cars and France are going to stop selling their anti freeze containing wine, or place such tariff that the UK can´t afford to buy them.

They aren't going to start discounting them to us. So at best, the prices stay the same, and at worst, they start creeping up - because our exit has inconvenienced them, and they are no longer obligated to price as per the rest of the EU.
If our demand for their product is greater than their need for something in return, the prices will rise. This is what we saw in the past - more expensive cars in the UK than in Europe. I'd expect a return to that former situation.

It would be unfair to believe absolutely everything will go up on price, but again it's a question of balance... will we benefit as a nation overall or not. Huge question.