EU referendum

EU referendum

  • In

    Votes: 503 47.9%

  • Out

    Votes: 547 52.1%
  • Total voters
    1,050
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Chippy_boy said:
Which makes them worthless of course.

Like predicting the progression of cancer stages, or predicting the changes in our climate, or predicting the trajectory of moon rockets. All predictions are a complete waste of time aren't they.

Especially when they don't suit your agenda.
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You don't predict the trajectory of a rocket going to the moon, you calculate it. The other prediction types you used as evidence are based on years of data and result in probabilities rather than a prediction. A better example of "prediction" would be a palm reader.
 
2011-07-21-Europe-debt-threat-to-globe-500.jpg

The Maastricht criteria-
Government debt:
The ratio of gross government debt to GDP must not exceed 60% at the end of the preceding fiscal year. Even if the target cannot be achieved due to the specific conditions, the ratio must have sufficiently diminished and must be approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace.
Untitled18.png
 
Prestwich_Blue said:
Quite a few of us who voted in 1975 thought we were voting for a Common Market, which seemed an eminently sensible idea. What we got (though we weren't told about it) was the European Union. The signs were there in hindsight but we didn't have the internet in those days so couldn't really know. And those few who warned that it was the first step in the creation of a European super-state were ridiculed. Now we're saying "We didn't vote for that at the time" which is the main reason why us older people are voting to leave. In a nutshell, we were conned. You could even say we were groomed, with all sorts of promises and treats.

The Lisbon and Maastricht treaties were the next steps and there was some disquiet but we didn't have the chance to vote on those. Voting t stay in on Thursday removes one of the last major barriers to the implementation of the Five Presidents' plan for fiscal, monetary and political union. That's in the public domain because of the internet though no one on the Leave campaign has brought it up when they really should have. There is simply no prospect that we will be able to opt out of that, which will involve joining the Euro and surrendering fiscal policy to the EU Finance Ministry. There is currently no guarantee, despite what Cameron will have you believe, that the NHS will be protected under TTIP. Does anyone really believe that Hunt even wants to protect it?

If that's fine with you, then vote Remain by all means. But do it with your eyes wide open and don't come back in 15 years time saying "But I didn't vote for that in 2016".
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I have never felt any affiliation towards UKIP but reading your post just brought something home to me - that whtever the outcome everyone in the country owes UKIP a debt of gratitude.

I say this because:

1/ in 1975 we were offered a vote (well not offered it was a constitutional necessity) - and with hindsight we were clearly conned

2/ Ahead of the 1992 Maastricht treaty we were promised a referendum which was reneged upon by John Major

3/ Ahead of the 2007 Lisbon treaty we were promised a referendum which was reneged upon by Tony Blair and Gordon Brown

4/ we are having a referendum now for the sole reason that Cameron promised it due to the self-serving reasons of getting re-elected and fear of the UKIP vote and despite so much sneaky machinations and outright lying of the REMAIN side it is so very close.

We would normally not have been given this chance because EU politics consider the citizens of the EU countries as plebs to be treated with contempt

We will never get this chance again and people do not have to be pro-UKIP to be grateful that circumstances have provided this opportunity

Lets take the this once in a lifetime chance
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Anyone know how vote is going to be delivered tomorrow? Will it be a running tally or as a result in one hit?
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Don't know, but there's 380 ish counting areas as it's by local authority. The figures are then sent to Manchester for announcement.

I'd imagine it will be released by area at some point, but maybe not on the night, although the BBC have a page for local results, so maybe they will!

The only issue there is that the TV companies have hours to fill when there won't be anything to report, so that can't be allowed!
 
EalingBlue2 said:
Exit poll and a conclusive result 30 seconds after the poll closes I reckon . Is it a 10pm close
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No exit polls allowed for tomorrow as I understand it. The only exit polls that will be run will be private ones by hedge fund managers so they can make a killing- if you want an idea of what those polls are saying then look at the action on GBP/USD late afternoon onwards.
 
masterwig said:
Vote based on what you think is best for the economy or security or opportunity but the main thrust of the Brexit campaign has become democracy and frankly it's a fallacy.
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The power to elect or un-elect the people who make decisions and laws that effect your life is ALL that its about, the rest are just details that future elected governments can deal with, we might want to have more or less immigration, we may or may not want to trade with certain countries, but that will be up to a government WE elect to do our bidding.
 
AlgarveBlu said:
No exit polls allowed for tomorrow as I understand it. The only exit polls that will be run will be private ones by hedge fund managers so they can make a killing- if you want an idea of what those polls are saying then look at the action on GBP/USD late afternoon onwards.
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Presumably that's the exact reason there aren't any?

They'd be meaningless anyway, as there's no prior data to assess what an exit poll might mean. If 90% of Clacton residents vote Leave, it's not a terribly good basis for any guesswork to choose them, unless they can also predict a similarly polarised Remain place.
 
Gaylord du Bois said:
Just had a quick look on BBC site. No exit poll. Basically first past the magic number which will calculated on the turnout.http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/artic...t-how-the-eu-referendum-votes-will-be-counted
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wow that's interesting so we will need enough votes in enough areas that are demographically correct to be able to make a prediction and much will depend if out areas or in areas come in first .

Might be like the US where rural votes some in early and the republicans look brilliant them the big precincts like Miami dade, Cleveland etc come in and hundreds of thousands of votes swing in minutes
 
TRUE BLUE NO1 said:
Seemed the best place to put this.....I always understood that anyone already here wouldnt be affected by a leave vote??

http://readmancity.com/2016/06/21/city-players-who-could-be-affected-by-brexit/

CITY PLAYERS WHO COULD BE AFFECTED BY BREXIT

SAMIR NASRI
The Frenchman has played in England for the past eight years, but that does not mean that he will automatically qualify for a work permit.

ELIAQUIM MANGALA
Mangala arrived at City in 2014 and has been heavily linked with a move away from the club in recent weeks.

GAEL CLICHY
Clichy, like Nasri, has spent a lot of his career in England – 13 years. However, his time in the country could end if Brexit were to happen.

JESUS NAVAS
Navas arrived with Pellegrini in 2013 but his lack of international football since signing for City could cost him a work permit.

BACARY SAGNA
Again, Sagna has spent almost the entirety of his career in England. However, he could be a victim of Britain voting to leave the EU.
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Load of rubbish mate.

The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. This provides that “Withdrawal from a treaty does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination”. Everyone will continue to enjoy all the rights and freedoms which they chose to exercise before Britain decided to leave the EU. There will be no change to their situation, whatever the result of the referendum.


http://www.oas.org/legal/english/docs/Vienna Convention Treaties.htm
 
smudgedj said:
Load of rubbish mate.

The Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. This provides that “Withdrawal from a treaty does not affect any right, obligation or legal situation of the parties created through the execution of the treaty prior to its termination”. Everyone will continue to enjoy all the rights and freedoms which they chose to exercise before Britain decided to leave the EU. There will be no change to their situation, whatever the result of the referendum.


http://www.oas.org/legal/english/docs/Vienna Convention Treaties.htm
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cheers mate.....guessed it was just an opinion of one "City fan" but as it was new to me, just wanted to check....
 
willy eckerslike said:
The other prediction types you used as evidence are based on years of data and result in probabilities rather than a prediction. A better example of "prediction" would be a palm reader.
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You're playing with words. Predictions (Metalwanker's word, not mine) can of course include statistical prodictions basded on probabilities. Which is precisely what the Insitute for Fiscal Studies and god-knows-how-many other institutions, analysts and experts have done.

No, the problem is not with the word "prediction" or it's suitabiliy or not. The problem is that the concensus position is that in all likelihood, Brexit will be very bad for our economy, for jobs, for inflation, prices, peoples' wealth. The Brexiters who are idealogically sold on leaving, can't stomach this likelihood so we have all this *shite* - and it is shite - trying to pretend the predictions, forecasts, calculations and in some cases cast iron certainties, are wrong.

I'd have a modicum of respect if they actually said, "you know what, I think we may well be worse off for a number of years, but in the end it will be worth it". I'd fundamentally disagree with that assessment, but at least it would be an honourable position.
 
blueonblue said:
The power to elect or un-elect the people who make decisions and laws that effect your life is ALL that its about, the rest are just details that future elected governments can deal with, we might want to have more or less immigration, we may or may not want to trade with certain countries, but that will be up to a government WE elect to do our bidding.
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I didn't elect the Prime Minister. Only people in Witney got to choose. When he steps down, nobody gets to vote on his successor (see Gordon Brown). We didn't vote for the foreign secretary or the health secretary. We didn't vote for anyone in the House of Lords where they can kill legislation sent up by people we did vote for.

If you accept we elect the government I'm not sure you can take issue with who that government selects as EU commissioner. It's just one more step. The European Parliament is actually more democratic than our own given the electoral system used.

You use 'we' meaning the UK. But 'we' may not apply to whole nations (Scotland), regions (the north west), cities (Manchester) and so on.

How far do we take self rule?
 
Chippy_boy said:
You're playing with words. Predictions (Metalwanker's word, not mine) can of course include statistical prodictions basded on probabilities. Which is precisely what the Insitute for Fiscal Studies and god-knows-how-many other institutions, analysts and experts have done.

No, the problem is not with the word "prediction" or it's suitabiliy or not. The problem is that the concensus position is that in all likelihood, Brexit will be very bad for our economy, for jobs, for inflation, prices, peoples' wealth. The Brexiters who are idealogically sold on leaving, can't stomach this likelihood so we have all this *shite* - and it is shite - trying to pretend the predictions, forecasts, calculations and in some cases cast iron certainties, are wrong.

I'd have a modicum of respect if they actually said, "you know what, I think we may well be worse off for a number of years, but in the end it will be worth it". I'd fundamentally disagree with that assessment, but at least it would be an honourable position.
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Most Brexit supporters I've spoken to agree we'll take a hit early on, but I'm not voting for a one, two, three year plan. It's for the long haul.

However when it comes to campaigning, saying the obvious isn't always wise. Both sides avoid certain phrases, words etc, that might cause a headline for their opposers.

To me it boils down to what level of independence do we want. Are you happy to continue toeing the line at the whim of Germany, who are geographically positioned to fit neatly with other member states, controlling them to get THEIR way against our wishes. Unfortunately this is down partly also to the perception of the UK from other nations, our history and position on the outside of the continent, coupled with our alignment to other English speaking nations, mainly the US.

Or, rebuild our country without the beaurocracy of outside influences.
 
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