EU referendum

[EalingBlue2]

The power to elect or un-elect the people who make decisions and laws that effect your life is ALL that its about, the rest are just details that future elected governments can deal with, we might want to have more or less immigration, we may or may not want to trade with certain countries, but that will be up to a government WE elect to do our bidding.

You at best will get to choose some people who make a tiny fraction of the decisions that govern your life and make those decisions on interests that will never be your own for short term party political ends. But will always be controlled by bigger powers like the market and reality

 

[EalingBlue2]

Most Brexit supporters I've spoken to agree we'll take a hit early on, but I'm not voting for a one, two, three year plan. It's for the long haul.

However when it comes to campaigning, saying the obvious isn't always wise. Both sides avoid certain phrases, words etc, that might cause a headline for their opposers.

To me it boils down to what level of independence do we want. Are you happy to continue toeing the line at the whim of Germany, who are geographically positioned to fit neatly with other member states, controlling them to get THEIR way against our wishes. Unfortunately this is down partly also to the perception of the UK from other nations, our history and position on the outside of the continent, coupled with our alignment to other English speaking nations, mainly the US.

Or, rebuild our country without the beaurocracy of outside influences.

On a totally globalised world with completely interdependent technologies , economies, trade etc - how exactly do you think you can do anything without the bureaucracy of outside influences.

 

[EalingBlue2]

Presumably that's the exact reason there aren't any?

They'd be meaningless anyway, as there's no prior data to assess what an exit poll might mean. If 90% of Clacton residents vote Leave, it's not a terribly good basis for any guesswork to choose them, unless they can also predict a similarly polarised Remain place.

they would just have to be much bigger and reflect all ages , all constituencies and all demographics comprehensively and I suspect that would mean a poll of tens of thousands and hideously expensive

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

Well guys (and Ladies!) the vote is almost here...less than 24hours! I truly believe staying "in" the EU is best for the country and dont believe any long term gain is worth the short term risks but I have really appreciated the debate from both sides....at the end of the day, we all want what is best for the country, just disagree on how we get there....whatever happens, I wont be back on here pointing fingers because I dont feel thats the best way to go forward as a country....we just need to make the best of whatever decision is made....hopefully this is "in" but I'll support whatever happens tomorrow....I've learned alot about the pros and cons from from both sides and if nothing else its helped me make a informed personal decision/opinion for what I believe is the best way to vote.....cheers all.

Time for me to head off to the transfer thread...hopefully some good news round the corner!;)

 

[cibaman]

No exit polls allowed for tomorrow as I understand it. The only exit polls that will be run will be private ones by hedge fund managers so they can make a killing- if you want an idea of what those polls are saying then look at the action on GBP/USD late afternoon onwards.

Its not a case of them not being allowed. Exit polls basically calculate the swing from the previous election/referendum. They ask roughly 150 voters at each of roughly 150 polling stations how they voted. Then they compare the results with those from the same polling stations at the previous election/referendum. Work out the swing and extrapolate. Without a recent previous election/referendum to provide comparative figures they can't make a reliable prediction.

They probably will be conducting exit polls. In case there is a second referendum in the near future. They just will not publish the results tomorrow as they will not be meaningful. The Hedge funds will be in the same position but will still be making big bets.

 

[TRUE BLUE NO1]

You can go back to the website and cut and paste my reply and call the poster a **** for getting everyones hopes up about Mangala. lol

lol!!...you read my mind!;)

 

[borassic]

I think one positive we can take out of this (apart from us staying in the EU) is that the proletariat have at least become semi engaged with politics.

 

[Citizen of Legoland]

On a totally globalised world with completely interdependent technologies , economies, trade etc - how exactly do you think you can do anything without the bureaucracy of outside influences.

Of course it won't disappear, however in simpler terms, what Germany wants ...

It's the nature of the beast that is the EU. A single dominant force surrounded by benefiting nations. I believe we'll be better, in the long term, leaving. I also believe the EU is good for the remaining nations, so don't want it to break up, and it won't, for the foreseeable.

 

[AlgarveBlu]

Its not a case of them not being allowed. Exit polls basically calculate the swing from the previous election/referendum. They ask roughly 150 voters at each of roughly 150 polling stations how they voted. Then they compare the results with those from the same polling stations at the previous election/referendum. Work out the swing and extrapolate. Without a recent previous election/referendum to provide comparative figures they can't make a reliable prediction.

They probably will be conducting exit polls. In case there is a second referendum in the near future. They just will not publish the results tomorrow as they will not be meaningful. The Hedge funds will be in the same position but will still be making big bets.

ok interesting, I wasn't sure what the exact policy would be on exit polls - I'll be looking at GBP/USD carefully tomorrow, anything heading towards 1.50 would indicate a remain victory is well on the cards.

 

[yep]

 

[Pam]

Oh my complete and utter blood pressure.

 

[Pam]

The Tories are going to split, I think. I haven't seen such infighting since Michael Foot and the Gang of Four. Last night's debate was hilarious.

 

[dave_blue12]

I think the outers have an idealistic and unrealistic view of the world that somehow leaving the EU will give the UK the power and will to shape a better future. It won't, we live in a world dominated by massive corporations where the UK is but a spec in global terms. All the talk of sovereignty and democracy is the Brexit campaign blowing smoke up your arse. It really is bullshit of the highest order.

Sadly I fear the majority of the population will pay for this idealistic view held by those who vote out but that's democracy for you !

 

[Metal Biker]

Which makes them worthless of course.

Like predicting the progression of cancer stages, or predicting the changes in our climate, or predicting the trajectory of moon rockets. All predictions are a complete waste of time aren't they.

Especially when they don't suit your agenda.

You said, after a hissy fit, you were "never going to speak to me again!" You've done so twice.

You said you were going to stay away from this thread. You've been back dozens of times.

I don't think anyone can take your opinion on anything seriously as you change your mind every few days. Going to vote out tomorrow?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The Tories are going to split, I think. I haven't seen such infighting since Michael Foot and the Gang of Four. Last night's debate was hilarious.

I hope this happens as it might be the only thing that might make a properly balanced coalition likely (and do away with gimmicks such as Cameron hoped for with the referendum).

If i hear "take back control" parroted by people who mean "give me control" again, I might scream. (NB: this is not that I think all Leave supporters are in it for themselves, just several of the figureheads who will gain from it!)

 

[Pam]

Well guys (and Ladies!) the vote is almost here...less than 24hours! I truly believe staying "in" the EU is best for the country and dont believe any long term gain is worth the short term risks but I have really appreciated the debate from both sides....at the end of the day, we all want what is best for the country, just disagree on how we get there....whatever happens, I wont be back on here pointing fingers because I dont feel thats the best way to go forward as a country....we just need to make the best of whatever decision is made....hopefully this is "in" but I'll support whatever happens tomorrow....I've learned alot about the pros and cons from from both sides and if nothing else its helped me make a informed personal decision/opinion for what I believe is the best way to vote.....cheers all.

Time for me to head off to the transfer thread...hopefully some good news round the corner!;)

Admirable sentiments but if we end up with a shagged economy because people think the immigrant issue is more important than taking ridiculously unnecessary risks with other people's jobs. So there will be finger-pointing alright. And when I have to kill the cat again in the event of any catastrophe tomo, on Brexit's head be it.

 

[Metal Biker]

You're playing with words. Predictions (Metalwanker's word, not mine) can of course include statistical prodictions basded on probabilities. Which is precisely what the Insitute for Fiscal Studies and god-knows-how-many other institutions, analysts and experts have done.

No, the problem is not with the word "prediction" or it's suitabiliy or not. The problem is that the concensus position is that in all likelihood, Brexit will be very bad for our economy, for jobs, for inflation, prices, peoples' wealth. The Brexiters who are idealogically sold on leaving, can't stomach this likelihood so we have all this *shite* - and it is shite - trying to pretend the predictions, forecasts, calculations and in some cases cast iron certainties, are wrong.

I'd have a modicum of respect if they actually said, "you know what, I think we may well be worse off for a number of years, but in the end it will be worth it". I'd fundamentally disagree with that assessment, but at least it would be an honourable position.

Yes, pay no attention to the nasty man!

 

[mcfc1632]

Actually I don't. With all due respect to her and her family and terrible though the whole thing is, she was murdered because her political actions, which granted were a reflection of her political beliefs, offended someone with serious mental issues. She didn't die FOR her political beliefs. It wasn't a selfless sacrifice, she didnt deliberately put herself at risk, she was murdered by a nutjob.

exactly - I was not wanting to waste too much effort in a reply to Pam.

I meant only that her political actions and the murderers mental issues which made her his target well predated the decision to hold a referendum.

The incident was nothing to do with the referendum and attempts by some Remainers to link it only demonstrates the shallowness of their arguments and principles

 

[Pam]

Just listening to the fucking Tory Brexit camp pretending to care about people's wages all of a sudden. Sickening.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

If those cut and paste jobs are backing up actual facts whats the problem with it? I gave up long ago trying to actually debate on here as its like talking to a brick wall in most cases so I post actual factual data and let people decide.

He cut and pasted something from a report published by a respected & supposedly independent EU focused think tank. Except when you looked at their funding much came from the government, the EU and people like the oil companies and banks, including Goldman Sachs. And he who pays the piper calls the tune.