2020 US Elections

[SWP's back]

Why on earth was Trump in Nebraska? Isn't that solid red territory with very few votes?

He’s out of cash and trying to get some.

 

[bluejon]

Right. So the polls didn't reflect a huge Trump defeat (which was the myth I was referring to); they reflected close to what the final vote was. So this round unless things change they're reflecting a bigger lead for Biden. If he wins the popular vote by roughly the margin he leads by -- say 7% -- how does that translate into an EC victory for him? The permutation set is pretty thin unless the state polls really have it wrong. But many of those have been adjusted to bring in more non-college educated white voters AND "shy" Trump voters, and the numbers still are where they are.

I suspect the mispriced long-odds option to bet on is a huge Biden victory (like 370+ EC votes) vs. a narrow Trump one.

I bloody hope you're right. Someone ran a war-games type simulation on the outcome of this and the only one that didn't end up in civil disturbances was a run away Biden win. Anything else and the electorate got pissed off and got quite fighty and shooty. We shall see.

 

[MillionMilesAway]

He’s out of cash and trying to get some.

But he's a multimegasuperduperzillionaire surely?

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

But he's a multimegasuperduperzillionaire surely?

FAKE NEWS!!!

 

[kaz7]

See the trophy robot was wheeled out last night to read a autocue with her robot voice , very inspiring

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

See the trophy robot was wheeled out last night to read a autocue with her robot voice , very inspiring

That's Trophy Robot of 'extraordinary abilities' to you..... ;-)

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

See the trophy robot was wheeled out last night to read a autocue with her robot voice , very inspiring

She is dying for him to lose, and the divorce papers will be filed on January 22nd, 2021 if he does. Look, I know people paint her as unfeeling and say "this is what happens to gold diggers" and all that, but I do feel sorry for her. She must be very lonely.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Right. So the polls didn't reflect a huge Trump defeat; they reflected close to what the final vote was. So this round unless things change they're reflecting a bigger lead for Biden. If he wins the popular vote by roughly the margin he leads by -- say 7% -- how does that translate into an EC victory for him? The permutation set is pretty thin.

I'd add to that - the polls at the end were close but in the months leading up it was Hilary around +5% most of the way. That is what people refer to as the polls being wrong, they are not a prediction but we all take them to be a prediction. It was that little dip following the FBI blunder with a week to go that pushed it just enough for Trump.

You also have to factor in that Trump attracted a hole new dynamic to the GOP vote that the pollsters underestimated. They will have adjusted the formula this time. So the shy Trump voters who were assumed to be non turnout will now be counted - these are the white trash that typically never vote in strong numbers. Trump has to keep these people on board. I think he will but its the other end of the scale where I thing he losses votes, the wealthy suburburban women. Hence the pleading for women to vote for him.

 

[kaz7]

She is dying for him to lose, and the divorce papers will be filed on January 22nd, 2021 if he does. Look, I know people paint her as unfeeling and say "this is what happens to gold diggers" and all that, but I do feel sorry for her. She must be very lonely.

She made her bed , she could have divorced him years ago, maybe she is afraid he wouldnt give her a settlement if she did , who knows ,it is however hard enough to be in the white house when the spouse , michelle used to say how difficult the loss of freedom was

 

[kaz7]

What is this that if you havent voted for two years but vote this time it wont be counted ?