2020 US Elections

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Anytime in the next month. Regardless of the counted vote both parties are ready to step in with an army of lawyers. This is going to be messy.

As I have said many times. The army of lawyers can only make arguments around how a vote works in each state. Its a step that might help you turn around a couple of hundred or maybe thousand deficit if you target some specific issues. But if there are millions of postal votes alongside millions of in person votes and the outcome is a Biden win by hundreds of thousands - Is Trump really going to try to argue that the millions of postal votes should be thrown out.

Re-counted maybe. Counted in some other way maybe. But in a slam dunk Biden win the lawyers cant just go in and make up the numbers. They have to have a case to argue, and the bigger the turnout the harder it is to have any plausible argument that you can push that flips a state from one result to another. And if you need to do that in multiple states do you have any credibility as POTUS?

I suspect this is what is driving the turnout. Americans dont trust Trump to concede in a fair but close election so even though many think Trump is going to lose they are determined to ensure he loses in a way that cant be argued in court in any reasonable way. That is a big difference over 2016 where on election day people just assumed Hilary would win even though she was fairly uninspiring in the campaign and the lead was falling in the run up.

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

I don't think that everybody who voted leave was racist, mate. Far from it. Many would have had genuine reasons and concerns and voted accordingly.
That's not to say there weren't many others who did vote for leave for one reason and one reason only.
Wherever it was the right thing or wrong thing to do will play out in time, it doesn't really affect me one way or another as I'm a Spanish resident, a UK passport holder and when seeing the potential for leave happening, now hold an Irish passport as well. Covered all my bases.

Trump though is a different kettle of fish. The uneducated and those living in their own bubble in large parts of the US, the ones who only focus on one aspect of the media will still think that Trump is the right man.
Anybody who digs deeper should be mortified that he's potentially going to get 4 more years.

Of course mate, and can you get me one of those Irish passports now please?

Interesting stat just flagged up on Fox before Trump interview just now - 1.8m extra guns sold in the money of October!!

Says it all, educated or not, thick as mince anybody who thinks owning a gun is a good thing.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

On the eve of the result, I keep remembering.

I think of 2016 after Trump won. The prediction of World War 3, nuclear holocaust, rounding up and imprisonment of minorities, legalised murder, fascist dictatorships and the KKK.

What did we get? Basically nothing. No big wars, no genocides or tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue, no war with Russia or Syria, no concentration camps for Muslims. In the end we got a strongly opinionated and pretty uncouth standard Republican. Legislatively, the country is almost no different now than it was 4 years ago - no major changes have been made outside of the SCOTUS which is basically a luck of the draw type thing depending on when people retire or die, and even that's a continuation of existing legislation rather than a change to the structure.

All that energy, all that paranoia and screeching and impotent rage and what actually changed as far as the US is concerned from 4 years ago? Very little. Nothing that can't be changed back in about a month. Trump's Presidency had exactly the impact that I always believed it would and the predictions led where I always believed they would.

In 10 years nobody will remember a single detail of his Presidency and instead they'll be focused on the next Republican who is definitely a racist fascist and going to be the end of us all, just like Trump was, just like Romney was, just like Bush was. Hell, he might even become a figure of "well he wasn't that bad" if he gives out some sweets to the First Lady and does a bit of painting.

When I think of the last 4 years, I won't think of what the US right gained but instead what the US left lost. They lost their perspective, they lost their rationality and they lost their moral high ground. They lost their minds. And all for a one note no mark President who didn't achieve anything and will have no historical impact at all. Sad to see. Let's hope that Trump Derangement Syndrome as the right called it was always a real thing and once he's out of office, some semblance may return.

You've managed to craft a post that is actually covered in your own jism.

You know what I remember?

That you got Donald Trump totally wrong.

I mean he made you his woman, didn’t he?

I remember you slinking off in embarrassment after the Soleimani incident, ne'er to be seen on the Trump thread for months.

What you know about what my country has been through, who we are after this, what Trump has done to friendships and families, to discourse and trust, could fit in a Dixie cup.

Why would anyone think your bullshit analysis or predictions have any credence now?

We don't.

 

[bluejon]

As I have said many times. The army of lawyers can only make arguments around how a vote works in each state. Its a step that might help you turn around a couple of hundred or maybe thousand deficit if you target some specific issues. But if there are millions of postal votes alongside millions of in person votes and the outcome is a Biden win by hundreds of thousands - Is Trump really going to try to argue that the millions of postal votes should be thrown out.

Re-counted maybe. Counted in some other way maybe. But in a slam dunk Biden win the lawyers cant just go in and make up the numbers. They have to have a case to argue, and the bigger the turnout the harder it is to have any plausible argument that you can push that flips a state from one result to another. And if you need to do that in multiple states do you have any credibility as POTUS?

I suspect this is what is driving the turnout. Americans dont trust Trump to concede in a fair but close election so even though many think Trump is going to lose they are determined to ensure he loses in a way that cant be argued in court in any reasonable way. That is a big difference over 2016 where on election day people just assumed Hilary would win even though she was fairly uninspiring in the campaign and the lead was falling in the run up.

If it's a landslide Biden win then you're right, but just about any other scenario is a mess. Trump is already screaming that loads of the votes are fraudulent (especially the mail in) and I suspect there will legal arguments already to go to throw spanners in the works left, right and centre. The point will be to obfuscate, confuse and deflect with the hope that it ends up going to the supreme court.

 

[r.soleofsalford]

You've managed to craft a post that is actually covered in your own jism.

You know what I remember?

That you got Donald Trump totally wrong.

I mean he made you his woman, didn’t he?

I remember you slinking off in embarrassment after the Soleimani incident, ne'er to be seen on the Trump thread for months.

What you know about what my country has been through, who we are after this, what Trump has done to friendships and families, to discourse and trust, could fit in a Dixie cup.

Why would anyone think your bullshit analysis or predictions have any credence now?

We don't.

Ouch 8-)

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

Yeah, and he lost by 3 million votes. He will lose this election by god knows how many million this time and may win via the EC, but the idea that there is this shy vote waiting to sweep him to power doesn‘t really stack up. What will give him power is a system which is designed to temper rule by the majority.

I don’t believe the shy vote will sweep him to victory either, but it does exist.
I really hope he gets a hiding.
The shy vote from last election, in my view, could just as easily do a complete 180 degree flip this time around.Or a large portion of them.

Being replaced by others this time around is not enough for Trump. He needs as well as.

Basically what I’m hoping is that the dumb fuck cult element is smaller than even Trump thinks.
That last time around more of his vote was the electorate that wouldn’t actually admit to voting for him because they were fully aware of his character flaws.

Yes he may attract a few more now that won’t admit it for their own personal reasons.

But he will also lose a lot of his support from last time, who had their own reasons beyond the cult mindset. They did exist and they are more likely to change their stance than the cult members.

You can only hope.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

I know some pretty clever people (Advanced degree's, US DoD employees) who voted Trump in 2016.

They are not voting Trump this time.

Exactly my point only more succinct.

 

[BobKowalski]

Made my point. Of those 14 per cent who were black and voted Trump last time, you could not rule out some previously voted for Obama?

My original point being to Pablo, you can't pigeon hole 14 per cent of the black vote and one third Hispanic, as being motivated to vote for Trump because they are racist.

There is a floating voter block which will always exist and have a say in marginal races?

I voted Blair in twice but have never voted Labour since and since voted Conservative because it was right for my family circumstances.

You said ‘plenty of women, including black‘ voted for both Obama and Trump, which was incorrect as black women did not (source Pew Research). I doubt if the black male electorate voted for Obama, more likely they are solid Republican conservative voters.

Those that voted for both were predominately white voters who like to vote for the ‘outsider‘ based on the odd belief that people with zero experience at governing will be good at governing, a notion that the pandemic has shown to be somewhat flawed.

 

[mat]

Kasey Hunt on MSNBC claiming her republican sources expected Texas to be decided on a coin toss.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

You've managed to craft a post that is actually covered in your own jism.

You know what I remember?

That you got Donald Trump totally wrong.

I mean he made you his woman, didn’t he?

I remember you slinking off in embarrassment after the Soleimani incident, ne'er to be seen on the Trump thread for months.

What you know about what my country has been through, who we are after this, what Trump has done to friendships and families, to discourse and trust, could fit in a Dixie cup.

Why would anyone think your bullshit analysis or predictions have any credence now?

We don't.

I thought he made a fair point, but appreciate that you have every right to call me names for doing so. I'm looking forward to Baden's victory - brought to be no doubt by those who obsess with Trump calling his supporters idiots for four years and in doing so successfully changing their minds / voting preference.