2020 US Elections

[gordondaviesmoustache]

If this final Iowa poll is remotely true then Trump’s done. He took Iowa by 10 points in 2016.

It's Hawkins I feel sorry for.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

It’s not fucking difficult to work out who will be doing the shooting.

Is it the people with the guns?

 

[Churchlawtonblue]

Is it the people with the guns?

lol

 

[west didsblue]

Is it the people with the guns?

Not much gets past you;-)

 

[MillionMilesAway]

The vast majority of those with assault rifles and unlimited ammunition will be on one side.

The People's Front of Judaea?

 

[MillionMilesAway]

I can’t see it. Biden’s not been fanning the flames and winding up his followers and stating that the opposition need locking up and praising his supporters attempts to intimidate the opposition. It’s all be one sided and thus yes, it’s one sided on here as well.

It seems a real stretch to think that the side who apparently need to wait for the postal votes will kick off before those votes are counted.
As opposed to those who would prefer not to have them counted.

Somewhere, there's going to be a big fire in a vote-counting site.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

In 2016, Hillary Clinton made her last big public appearance in Pittsburgh, speaking in front of Pittsburgh University's famous Cathedral of Learning landmark. Yesterday Biden (with Lady Gaga) was also there.

Hope that's not an omen!

I think there is quite a science to where they go in the last few hours of campaigning, although the idea that there are still votes up for grabs seems odd after months of it. Not sure if the last day is when they try to swing marginal states or just go to 'safe seats' for a bit of flag waving and feel-good stuff for TV?

 

[west didsblue]

The People's Front of Judaea?

Splitters

 

[SWP's back]

I think there is quite a science to where they go in the last few hours of campaigning, although the idea that there are still votes up for grabs seems odd after months of it. Not sure if the last day is when they try to swing marginal states or just go to 'safe seats' for a bit of flag waving and feel-good stuff for TV?

I guess it’s trying to wring every last drop out of the votes and making sure that everyone votes.

Last time 130m voted and the electoral college swung on 70,000 across 3 states. That’s 0.0538% of the votes cast.

Every little helps.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

It seems a real stretch to think that the side who apparently need to wait for the postal votes will kick off before those votes are counted.
As opposed to those who would prefer not to have them counted.

Somewhere, there's going to be a big fire in a vote-counting site.

Yes, I hadn't thought about it like that. Quite possible that in the face of an initial trump 'victory' some may see it as their patriotic duty to burn postal votes.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

He may be up (or look it) in a few states for a few hours and attempt to claim victory but the majority of it will be resolved by Wednesday night (states time), so I can’t see any of the above.

It will be his militias and flag waving pick up drivers that lose their shit when it all starts slipping away. You seen many groups of Dems marching around with guns and threatening the other side?

I think the real danger is the lone or small group gun nuts that are in to all sorts of conspiracy BS. These people are basically lone wolf white supremacy terrorists. But give them an arsenal of military grade weapons and they can do a lot of damage. They are of course committed Trump followers as he has been feeding these low grade racists for the last 5 years. How will they react to a Biden win - well they wont think its legit for a start as they get their news from Info Wars and other such BS aggregators.

Well he’s got a 10% chance going into Election Day as opposed to 30% last time.

So I’d be needing 9/1 to lump money on him and feel it as value.

In 2016, 130m or thereabouts voted, the Dems received 4m fewer votes than 2012 due to voter apathy (ie these weren’t votes that flipped to Trump, it was 4m that simply didn’t bother voting).

They’re forecasting 150-160m votes cast this time round. That apathy is non-existent.

I can’t see it.

The turnout is crazy. It is so up it makes the polling almost redundant. People estimating it to be up to a third up on 2016 and the higest turnout in a 100 years. Its impossible to predict the outcome when that many people who didnt vote last time are going to show up. But if you are going to put a bet on then backing Trump who is 10 points down in the polls is a brave call.

 

[Damocles]

On the eve of the result, I keep remembering.

I think of 2016 after Trump won. The prediction of World War 3, nuclear holocaust, rounding up and imprisonment of minorities, legalised murder, fascist dictatorships and the KKK.

What did we get? Basically nothing. No big wars, no genocides or tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue, no war with Russia or Syria, no concentration camps for Muslims. In the end we got a strongly opinionated and pretty uncouth standard Republican. Legislatively, the country is almost no different now than it was 4 years ago - no major changes have been made outside of the SCOTUS which is basically a luck of the draw type thing depending on when people retire or die, and even that's a continuation of existing legislation rather than a change to the structure.

All that energy, all that paranoia and screeching and impotent rage and what actually changed as far as the US is concerned from 4 years ago? Very little. Nothing that can't be changed back in about a month. Trump's Presidency had exactly the impact that I always believed it would and the predictions led where I always believed they would.

In 10 years nobody will remember a single detail of his Presidency and instead they'll be focused on the next Republican who is definitely a racist fascist and going to be the end of us all, just like Trump was, just like Romney was, just like Bush was. Hell, he might even become a figure of "well he wasn't that bad" if he gives out some sweets to the First Lady and does a bit of painting.

When I think of the last 4 years, I won't think of what the US right gained but instead what the US left lost. They lost their perspective, they lost their rationality and they lost their moral high ground. They lost their minds. And all for a one note no mark President who didn't achieve anything and will have no historical impact at all. Sad to see. Let's hope that Trump Derangement Syndrome as the right called it was always a real thing and once he's out of office, some semblance may return.

 

[CatMan]

Do not believe any polls where one of the choices is controversial. We've seen it with Brexit, Trump 1st time and 2019 General Election.

The reality is people are not stupid and are hardly going to declare their true voting intentions if those intentions are going to lead to people calling them racist etc. They will however still go and vote for what they believe. You can guarantee that for every newly registered voter on the back of BLM there will also be one who will register to support Trump. Remember he doesn't have to win the popular vote, just the electoral college and can do so with probably as little as 45% of the popular vote as long as he takes the key states. In short this is going down to the wire and we could see some states so close that the military votes arriving from overseas, and 2 to 3 days late, could swing it either way.

Don't look at betting as they work of exit polls and rely on people being truthful. At 9.55pm on Brexit Day, I was stood outside a William Hill packing up my Vote Leave paraphernalia and the girl left the betting office telling me we had no chance and Leave was now 10/1 against! Of course I accepted that and went off to my local count very subdued. By 11pm as the 1st boxes opened I could see that what the polls had said and what people had voted were 2 different things. By 2am, there were Remainers in tears as my local area recorded 57% Leave and similar margins were being shown across the UK.

I'm not fussed who wins in America today as frankly we have enough homeland issues to deal with but to discount Trump based on media bias would be foolish.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

On the eve of the result, I keep remembering.

I think of 2016 after Trump won. The prediction of World War 3, nuclear holocaust, rounding up and imprisonment of minorities, legalised murder, fascist dictatorships and the KKK.

What did we get? Basically nothing. No big wars, no genocides or tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue, no war with Russia or Syria, no concentration camps for Muslims. In the end we got a strongly opinionated and pretty uncouth standard Republican. Legislatively, the country is almost no different now than it was 4 years ago - no major changes have been made outside of the SCOTUS which is basically a luck of the draw type thing depending on when people retire or die, and even that's a continuation of existing legislation rather than a change to the structure.

All that energy, all that paranoia and screeching and impotent rage and what actually changed as far as the US is concerned from 4 years ago? Very little. Nothing that can't be changed back in about a month. Trump's Presidency had exactly the impact that I always believed it would and the predictions led where I always believed they would.

In 10 years nobody will remember a single detail of his Presidency and instead they'll be focused on the next Republican who is definitely a racist fascist and going to be the end of us all, just like Trump was, just like Romney was, just like Bush was. Hell, he might even become a figure of "well he wasn't that bad" if he gives out some sweets to the First Lady and does a bit of painting.

When I think of the last 4 years, I won't think of what the US right gained but instead what the US left lost. They lost their perspective, they lost their rationality and they lost their moral high ground. They lost their minds. And all for a one note no mark President who didn't achieve anything and will have no historical impact at all. Sad to see. Let's hope that Trump Derangement Syndrome as the right called it was always a real thing and once he's out of office, some semblance may return.

I got dogs abuse on here for suggesting that the Trump presidency hadn't actually done much besides troll the permanently outraged - I was immediately castigated by the permanently outraged. I had a peep on his twitter as that's where most of the stuff on here about him comes from, and it looks like he uses it purely to troll people who hate him. I'd be genuinely interested to know how many of his millions of followers are supporters. From the replies to his trolling it would appear hardly any - he feeds his brand on the fuel of well-meaning liberal hatred as far as I can see.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Not much gets past you;-)

It's why I'm paid the big bucks.

 

[BobKowalski]

I seem to recall an attempted kidnapping/murder plot on a Democrat Governor by supporters of the President and this attempt partly excused by that President.

I also recall armed white militia storming the Statehouse in the same State with no action taken.

And that’s just one highlight.

But, yeah, no need to get alarmed.

Fuck’s sake.

 

[stonerblue]

On the eve of the result, I keep remembering.

I think of 2016 after Trump won. The prediction of World War 3, nuclear holocaust, rounding up and imprisonment of minorities, legalised murder, fascist dictatorships and the KKK.

What did we get? Basically nothing. No big wars, no genocides or tanks rolling down Pennsylvania Avenue, no war with Russia or Syria, no concentration camps for Muslims. In the end we got a strongly opinionated and pretty uncouth standard Republican. Legislatively, the country is almost no different now than it was 4 years ago - no major changes have been made outside of the SCOTUS which is basically a luck of the draw type thing depending on when people retire or die, and even that's a continuation of existing legislation rather than a change to the structure.

All that energy, all that paranoia and screeching and impotent rage and what actually changed as far as the US is concerned from 4 years ago? Very little. Nothing that can't be changed back in about a month. Trump's Presidency had exactly the impact that I always believed it would and the predictions led where I always believed they would.

In 10 years nobody will remember a single detail of his Presidency and instead they'll be focused on the next Republican who is definitely a racist fascist and going to be the end of us all, just like Trump was, just like Romney was, just like Bush was. Hell, he might even become a figure of "well he wasn't that bad" if he gives out some sweets to the First Lady and does a bit of painting.

When I think of the last 4 years, I won't think of what the US right gained but instead what the US left lost. They lost their perspective, they lost their rationality and they lost their moral high ground. They lost their minds. And all for a one note no mark President who didn't achieve anything and will have no historical impact at all. Sad to see. Let's hope that Trump Derangement Syndrome as the right called it was always a real thing and once he's out of office, some semblance may return.

Yeah, apart from the civil war, rise and normalisation of the far-right, banning of Muslims, a massive wall and the thousands of avoidable deaths through covid denial, all is fine.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Do not believe any polls where one of the choices is controversial. We've seen it with Brexit, Trump 1st time and 2019 General Election.

The reality is people are not stupid and are hardly going to declare their true voting intentions if those intentions are going to lead to people calling them racist etc. They will however still go and vote for what they believe. You can guarantee that for every newly registered voter on the back of BLM there will also be one who will register to support Trump. Remember he doesn't have to win the popular vote, just the electoral college and can do so with probably as little as 45% of the popular vote as long as he takes the key states. In short this is going down to the wire and we could see some states so close that the military votes arriving from overseas, and 2 to 3 days late, could swing it either way.

Don't look at betting as they work of exit polls and rely on people being truthful. At 9.55pm on Brexit Day, I was stood outside a William Hill packing up my Vote Leave paraphernalia and the girl left the betting office telling me we had no chance and Leave was now 10/1 against! Of course I accepted that and went off to my local count very subdued. By 11pm as the 1st boxes opened I could see that what the polls had said and what people had voted were 2 different things. By 2am, there were Remainers in tears as my local area recorded 57% Leave and similar margins were being shown across the UK.

I'm not fussed who wins in America today as frankly we have enough homeland issues to deal with but to discount Trump based on media bias would be foolish.

So your saying never underestimate the number of idiots out there that will crawl out of the woodwork to vote for lying faux patriotic right wing arsholes that will run an adimistration solely and brazenly for their own benefit while being cheered on by their deluded suppport base. Got it.

 

[Damocles]

Yeah, apart from the civil war, rise and normalisation of the far-right, banning of Muslims, a massive wall and the thousands of avoidable deaths through covid denial, all is fine.

Is the US in a civil war now?

Is Islam a banned religion?

I must have missed that piece of news.

The US far right has been powerful and present for as long as the US has existed. It wasn't that long ago that they were hanging black people from trees and demanding that their children not be in the same school as black people. Let's not pretend that a country where nationalism seems to be seen as a positive trait and every politician stands behind a flag shouting God Bless America has not had a long history of far right ideologies within their political system. In fact the Power of Nightmares documentary pointed out 20 years ago that US culture demands an enemy (Nazis, Soviets, Communists, Islam, etc) in order to function and that was decades before Trump was anywhere.

 

[domalino]

Yeah, apart from the civil war, rise and normalisation of the far-right, banning of Muslims, a massive wall and the thousands of avoidable deaths through covid denial, all is fine.

And in a few years we definitely won't be feeling the effects of him nominating 2 completely unqualified right wing partisan hacks to the supreme court.

ACB and Kavanaugh are going to overturn Roe vs. Wade, and do untold damage for the next 30 years, but @Damocles won't remember anything of Trump's presidency, so that's OK.

He destroyed the EPA, took the USA out of the Paris Climate Accord, ripped up Clinton era protections for the National forests allowing them to be built on, but don't worry, no one will feel the effects of Climate change in a few decades.