2020 US Elections

[yankblue]

I dunno mate. I've not stayed up all night and am just doing my own analysis now. After my previous (hopeful) comment that I think BIden is still on course to win, I have to say I think I have changed my mind and that earlier comment was mistaken.

Biden is sure to win Nevada, Arizona and Maine... which will take him to 243. But where is he going to get the other 27 from?

Pennsylvania is IMO gone - a 9 point gap is too big, even iwith many votes still to count. Michigan, ditto. Alaska ditto.

That leaves Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia as the only places where IMO Biden can pick up votes from. He needs two of the three and yet he's behind in all of them with (in the case of N.C. and Ga.) not many votes left.

It's starting to look to me right now that Trump may have held on. God help us all.

(I have no clue what this situation is with Hawaii and why it is never talked about.)

Pennsylvania is not far from gone.

I grew up in PA. It's a very simple state to understand. Eastern PA has Philly, and western PA has Pittsburgh. Everything else is rural farm and coal country (we called it Pennsyltucky).

What you're seeing right now for PA is in person votes, largely from the rural middle of the state which skews heavily Republican. Philly and Pittsburgh, which are largely democrat, have mostly not been counted yet.

Is that enough to tip the state? Maybe, maybe not. Nobody knows at this point. PA is as much of a tossup as a state can be right now.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

This is awful.

so at this stage Trump likely to remain president ?

Too early to say, but the polls suggesting a landslide for Biden were either incompetent or corrupt. Worth noting that it's generally the case that a sitting president gets a second term so purely from that point of view it's perhaps no surprise that it is so close or a trump victory.

 

[SWP's back]

Pennsylvania is IMO gone - a 9 point gap is too big, even iwith many votes still to count.

Virginia looked similar. There are 2m votes still to count and they should heavily favour Biden. Stick CNN on, they keep going through Penn and the counties still to count in great detail.

 

[SWP's back]

You have to hand it to Trump. According to every news outlet he would not get a second term. The predictions are wrong again. He is ahead in the states that matter and looks to have won.

Same with city, media narrative is biased and one sided as people don’t want to acknowledge he has a huge voting base.

Shit, my stream must be slow. How did Penn and Georgia end?

 

[kaz7]

What have you done america, from that first exit poll of what they were voting on it was heavily in the fuckwits favour, depressing

 

[bugsyblue]

Virginia looked similar. There are 2m votes still to count and they should heavily favour Biden. Stick CNN on, they keep going through Penn and the counties still to count in great detail.

They are so bias though. They were still arguing that Florida was blue about 1am last night when it was clearly lost.

 

[SWP's back]

What have you done america,

Wait for the votes to be counted.

 

[SWP's back]

They are so bias though. They were still arguing that Florida was blue about 1am last night when it was clearly lost.

They're really not, in fact, they are bending over backwards to show how balanced they are.

 

[Gray]

God Bless America.

 

[The slaughtered lamb]

If the traditional media are trying to drive a move to the centre, I have to say I don’t think their strategy of telling everyone what to think is working in the US. Social media exacerbates this. Or are they pulling one of those double Clarkies I’ve heard about on here? Don’t know what to believe anymore.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Too early to say

Not too early to predict though.

Biden needs 50 more electoral college votes. Where on earth is he going to get them from?

 

[Chippy_boy]

Pennsylvania is not far from gone.

I grew up in PA. It's a very simple state to understand. Eastern PA has Philly, and western PA has Pittsburgh. Everything else is rural farm and coal country (we called it Pennsyltucky).

What you're seeing right now for PA is in person votes, largely from the rural middle of the state which skews heavily Republican. Philly and Pittsburgh, which are largely democrat, have mostly not been counted yet.

Is that enough to tip the state? Maybe, maybe not. Nobody knows at this point. PA is as much of a tossup as a state can be right now.

Thanks for the insight. I hope you are right.

EDIT: Looking at it, Biden is about 700k votes behind with 1.8m uncounted. So he needs something like 70% of the postal vote in order to claw back to victory (in Pa). Seems a tall order, but fingers crossed.

 

[yankblue]

Thanks for the insight. I hope you are right.

Of course, didn't mean any malice so sorry if it came across that way. Just trying to provide some context on why PA looks the way it does right now which is pretty misleading.

 

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

I'm going to call Nevada for Trump 2 very rural counties not even counting till morning (local time) and Biden only just leading.
Georgia is getting closer though.

According to the BBC the latest state of play is:
Biden 550679
Trump 523739
Jorgensen 9360

and 79% has been counted. That means there are only 1,372,000 expected voters, which leaves just 289000 votes remaining. Trump needs 158k assuming Biden gets 131k, or 55% of the remaining votes. This state has two majority counties (Washoe & Clark accounting for 924k of the votes cast so far) - both of which Biden leads in. Would be a miracle for Trump to do that, especially as Clark has only counted 75% so likely to return some more votes for Biden

 

[kaz7]

I missed trump declaring victory, just as well
Texas stopped drive in voting early, hmmm

 

[ayrshire_blue]

Of course, didn't mean any malice so sorry if it came across that way. Just trying to provide some context on why PA looks the way it does right now which is pretty misleading.

I know you're probably better informed than me mate but just seen on the BBC website that trump has 55% of the vote in Pennsylvania so far to Biden's 43%, that's with 75% of all total votes counted so far. Seems miles of a stretch for Biden to claw back surely?

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Well yes, but the bookies are getting firmer on a Trump win as time passes.
Can't stand him, but there you go.

The bookies don't make subjective judgements. They balance the weight of money. Whichever outcome has the most money on it will be favourite.

 

[Chippy_boy]

Of course, didn't mean any malice so sorry if it came across that way. Just trying to provide some context on why PA looks the way it does right now which is pretty misleading.

Not at all. It didn't come across as you being anything other than helpful.

 

[mccity]

You have to hand it to Trump. According to every news outlet he would not get a second term. The predictions are wrong again. He is ahead in the states that matter and looks to have won.

Same with city, media narrative is biased and one sided as people don’t want to acknowledge he has a huge voting base.

As much of a buffoon as Trump appears to be, he is a billionaire tycoon. Even if it turns out he's not the greatest businessman, you don't get that rich without being an aggressive, competitive as fuck, gamesman to the extreme, Machiavellian, underhanded, and hard working piece of shit. This isn't about politics to Trump, it's just a competition he has to win at all costs. He's not won of course (yet?) but he's been playing a different game for 5 years and the world has been too arrogant to notice the floppy haired fuck doing it.

Interesting you mention City, because to add to the comparison the media would have you think Sheikh Mansour is just some evil, Arab playboy as opposed to being the extremely savvy and committed businessman he is. And they underestimate just how much of a bigwig Khaldoon is by a long way too.

 

[mccity]

I missed trump declaring victory, just as well
Texas stopped drive in voting early, hmmm

You missed his now gone tweet where he wrote Poles instead of polls. That's the real bummer for all you night sleepers.