2020 US Elections

[ChicagoBlue]

I think he runs in January.

I see what you did there! ;-)

 

[Bigga]

I’m not sure FL voting demographics should be used to make any meaningful points right now given they are heavily corrupted by the *actual* mail-in ballot fraud perpetrated by DeJoy and co.

Even beyond that, it’s very early to be using any prelim demo metrics to support substantive arguments (and that is a professional statement from someone with years of data analysis experience).

Also, I think there are other explanations for those shifts, including just simply people buying in to Trump’s grifting and lies.

I'm happy to wait on the post-election data.

 

[west didsblue]

I’m not sure FL voting demographics should be used to make any meaningful points right now given they are heavily corrupted by the *actual* mail-in ballot fraud perpetrated by DeJoy and co.

Even beyond that, it’s very early to be using any prelim demo metrics to support substantive arguments (and that is a professional statement from someone with years of data analysis experience).

Also, I think there are other explanations for those shifts, including just simply people buying in to Trump’s grifting and lies.

From what I've seen, the Trump narrative of associating the Democrats with Socialism / Communism hit home with the large ex-pat anti-Castro Cuban community in FL, and the Dems didn't do enough to counter the lies.

 

[Gorton_Tubster]

Kevin McCarthy (R- CA), House Minority Leader, was in Laura Ingraham’s Show on Fox on Thursday night pouring gasoline on the fraud fire! Spouting the “I’m only repeating what I’ve heard, but....” conspiracy theories about mail-in vote count!

Is it true that trumps allies like fox and Murdoch media are ditching Donald?

I am hoping the rats leaving the sinking ship come back to get him,maybe even lock him up.

 

[Phil1]

So, because I'm not popping champagne for a lame duck presidency, I should "give it a rest"?

I'll tell you what, you go about your business and I'll do what I do.

I examine the future, not the here and now.

But the here and now has a huge bearing on what happens in the future. Why can't you see this?
You can claim that Trump is no worse than others who went before him, or the man he's up against, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny unless you're happy to forgive him for his multitude of flaws and quite dangerous rhetoric and actions over the last few years.
Thinking ahead is a great trait to have and admirable in many ways.
Not realising or taking into account that Rome wasn't built in a day, not so much.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Happy to see the back of Trump but like you I am a bit meh on the Biden selection and what he'll do for the US.

The first year of his tenure will be all about blaming Republicans for the mess, it wont be long after that the honeymoon period will become a nightmare as the democrats try to knit together a failed society so split by race, poverty and ideology that they themselves become demonised by a section of the American public.

We are back in 2010, with Mitch McConnell explaining his job is to make Biden a one-term President and to stop him from being successful.

Moscow Mitch will have to have an iron grip on his members to ensure they stick together!

That said...with the TWO GEORGIA RUN-OFF SENATE ELECTIONS, if Dems can turn both of them Blue.....

 

[Bigga]

Happy to see the back of Trump but like you I am a bit meh on the Biden selection and what he'll do for the US.

The first year of his tenure will be all about blaming Republicans for the mess, it wont be long after that the honeymoon period will become a nightmare as the democrats try to knit together a failed society so split by race, poverty and ideology that they themselves become demonised by a section of the American public.

And just to back your post, as well as highlight to the odd one or two saying that Biden will select Sanders in the cabinet, Axios have some insight...
McConnell's Likely Demands

 

[domalino]

And just to back your post, as well as highlight to the odd one or two saying that Biden will select Sanders in the cabinet, Axios have some insight...
McConnell's Likely Demands

The GOP haven't won the senate though.

That's the massive hole in that theory. The Democrats will be massive favourites in the 2 Georgia runoffs, and with the Trumps cast out of the Republican party it's very unlikely the Republican's are going to get support for 2 very unpopular candidates in Loeffler and Perdue.

And by January, The democrats promising they will provide economic relief for the average person while coronavirus ravages the country is going to be a lot more of a motivating argument then McConnell asking for the ability to obstruct for 2 years.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

That's my desire for people and politics today doesn't do that.

The fact that you have lobbyists (in this case the in the US) that can easily work for one or the other main party just goes to show where the donor interests lie and why the parties are not so different.

It's bothersome that people only see the superficial as the reality.

The thing is @Bigga we all see it that way. At least the vast majority of what I read in here indicates that to me.
We don’t see the superficial as reality. We see it for what it is but perhaps have a different idea as to what can be done about it.

You’re view of politics and the political system is not confined to the US. It’s everywhere.

You are not wrong in all of your views but most people apart from those who really do see the superficial as reality, (I’d lump a large portion of the Trump support in there), saw this election’s number 1 goal as lancing the malignant growth, as it was looking likely to be cancerous.

Whether it is too late now and the American system is only putting a bandaid on it remains to be seen.

But you can’t look at what Trump has been setting up, ignoring Covid as a global problem and using it as a tool culminating in that abberation of a statement from the WH last night, and think it would be better if he won another term.

 

[SebastianBlue]

From what I've seen, the Trump narrative of associating the Democrats with Socialism / Communism hit home with the large ex-pat anti-Castro Cuban community in FL, and the Dems didn't do enough to counter the lies.

This, I can agree with.

However, they had the option of voting elsewhere or not voting at all.

Perhaps it even being an anti-Dem stance.

But, that would be bizarre to side with someone who hates you.

I compiled the below list of all the theories I had thus far seen as to why many Latinx voters may have cast their ballots as they did and posted it yesterday.

Each (or combinations of a few) of these have been posited by various analysts, pundits, scholars, community leaders, politicians, and talking heads I follow. And there will be many more to come, once the data resolves more clearly and composites of pre-elections forecasts/modelling and new ‘exit polling’ are created and refined (which is the process for creating meaningful post-election data with secret ballot elections).

As I said in the below post, I am waiting for better data before deciding which have merit (if any).

I have already seen quite a few theories (and combinations of these theories) floated for this, including:

- Voter suppression you mentioned (which I think most expected, unfortunately)

- “Biden will turn the US in to a socialist state” messaging resonating with some that have direct/indirect experience with failed socialist states

- Larger number of Latinx Americans that have started their own businesses holding the (I think misguided) belief that Trump is also a businessman and so will look out for their interests in a way Biden won’t

- Cultural pressures to be more “American” in communities where many Latinx Americans reside which translates in part to supporting Trump for various local/regional reasons, which include wanting to visibly distinguish themselves from the so-called “bad people” Trump says are immigrating to America, even if they have been here for generations (or, in the case of many southwestern states, predate arrival of ‘whites’ of European descent)

- Community pressure to be more “white” in the face of many factors and recent events, which is often interpreted in their communities as supporting Trump (as opposed to the BLM/Antifa ‘terrorist’ loving Biden); in other words, trying to avoid racism by appeasing the racists

- Old school community intimidation

- Affinity to authoritarian leadership (same as most Trump supporters)

- Evangelical and other religious influence toward Trump support

- Just simply liking Trump and/or is esposed beliefs (whatever they are that Twitter rant) due to general cultural shifts

- Aspirations of “making it big” which Trump sells himself has having done and can help others do if they just stay loyal to him

I am sure more theories will be offered up in the three billion post-mortems to follow.

I am going to wait until we have better voting data to decide which I think have any merit.

 

[Bigga]

But the here and now has a huge bearing on what happens in the future. Why can't you see this?
You can claim that Trump is no worse than others who went before him, or the man he's up against, but it doesn't stand up to scrutiny unless you're happy to forgive him for his multitude of flaws and quite dangerous rhetoric and actions over the last few years.
Thinking ahead is a great trait to have and admirable in many ways.
Not realising or taking into account that Rome wasn't built in a day, not so much.

I regard it closer to having a spotter saying "Iceberg ahead!", rather than join in with the dancing and drinking when the ship's direction is locked in with a broom handle.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I think he runs in January.

To Russia?

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Is it true that trumps allies like fox and Murdoch media are ditching Donald?

I am hoping the rats leaving the sinking ship come back to get him,maybe even lock him up.

Some of the so-called “journalists” there are (John Roberts is one I heard), and even Murdoch’s ultra-reliable New York Post had the picture of Trump skulking out of today’s lying rant session with the headline, “Downcast Trump makes baseless fraud claims in White House address.”

The more prospective sycophants will be quieter, while hoping their nut case constituents don’t notice, but this is a cult, so some will simply double down with him!!!

 

[nmc]

Now the scary question is:

Does Trump run in 2024???

I think his behaviour in the last 48 hours has reduced that prospect. He’s more likely to be seen on top of Trump Tour in a bath chair shouting obscenities - flanked by Rudi Giuliani and Nigel Farage.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The GOP haven't won the senate though.

That's the massive hole in that theory. The Democrats will be massive favourites in the 2 Georgia runoffs, and with the Trumps cast out of the Republican party it's very unlikely the Republican's are going to get support for 2 very unpopular candidates in Loeffler and Perdue.

And by January, The democrats promising they will provide economic relief for the average person while coronavirus ravages the country is going to be a lot more of a motivating argument then McConnell asking for the ability to obstruct for 2 years.

Don’t fully understand senate elections but doesn’t Georgia going blue and the two senate seats there being won by such a tight margin by the Republican incumbents mean that the seats go for election again in January.

Did I pick that up wrong last night?

 

[roubaixtuesday]

The Democrats will be massive favourites in the 2 Georgia runoffs

Why? (genuine question)

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I think his behaviour in the last 48 hours has reduced that prospect. He’s more likely to be seen on top of Trump Tour in a bath chair shouting obscenities - flanked by Rudi Giuliani and Nigel Farage.

I didn’t necessarily mention the first name! 8-0

 

[domalino]

Don’t fully understand senate elections but doesn’t Georgia going blue and the two senate seats there being won by such a tight margin by the Republican incumbents mean that the seats go for election again in January.

Did I pick that up wrong last night?

Yes. In Georgia you have to win with over 50% of the vote. That's not going to happen, so in 9 weeks there will be a runoff election between the top 2 candidates - the Republicans vs the Democrats.

If the Democrats win those, they will have 50 senate seats, and Kamala Harris will be the deciding vote in every Senate 50/50.

 

[Bigga]

The thing is @Bigga we all see it that way. At least the vast majority of what I read in here indicates that to me.
We don’t see the superficial as reality. We see it for what it is but perhaps have a different idea as to what can be done about it.

You’re view of politics and the political system is not confined to the US. It’s everywhere.

You are not wrong in all of your views but most people apart from those who really do see the superficial as reality, (I’d lump a large portion of the Trump support in there), saw this election’s number 1 goal as lancing the malignant growth, as it was looking likely to be cancerous.

Whether it is too late now and the American system is only putting a bandaid on it remains to be seen.

But you can’t look at what Trump has been setting up, ignoring Covid as a global problem and using it as a tool culminating in that abberation of a statement from the WH last night, and think it would be better if he won another term.

Okay, I get the point made.

My worry is seeing the US get worse, despite the 'nice man' being in charge. Just because he will obfuscate and withhold data from the public (and he will) doesn't mean he'll be that much better.

Failed policies and promises opened the door for the Orange Gimp and there's no putting the genie back in the bottle now.

The US is coming to a boil and I don't know how they will handle it.

 

[nmc]

I didn’t necessarily mention the first name! 8-0

A very real prospect one of them throws their hat in the ring.