kawkav
Well-Known Member
NeilYoungIsBack said:
Only 60%? really?
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29 Games to quadruple
- Thread starter kawkav
- Start date
Only 60%? really?
whp.blue
Well-Known Member
with the defeat of Maureen's chavs and today's nearly perfect FA cup draw those odds must have tumbled
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worsleyweb
Guest
I would say league cup 75 percent, league 40 percent, fa cup 40 percent, champs league 15 percent. Quad prob won't happen domestic treble a ten to twenty per cent chance I would say.
Blue_Rossy
Well-Known Member
Just winning one of the four will do me. Would be a crying shame I'd we didn't win anything after our style and smashing teams. So any one of 4 I will be happy if anymore then I'll be in dream land.
OB1
Well-Known Member
NeilYoungIsBack said:Statt0 said:City to get quadruple - 80/1
I had a play around with some numbers a few days back. At this moment in time, given how we are positioned, City's chance of winning the following competitions could be something like:
* League Cup: 60%
* Premier League: 40%
* FA Cup: 10%
* Champions League: 5%
Multiplying all those through, City's chance of a quadruple = 0.12%
Or, expressed another way, a 99.88% chance that we won't win it.
Even if you added 10% to each of those percentages above (i.e. 70%, 50%, 20%, 15%) it's still only a 1% chance !!!
On that basis odds of 80/1 don't seem very attractive TBH.
We are the best of 8 teams left in the cup with a decent draw in the QF so 10% chance of winning the FAC is way too low, IMO. However, putting individual chances aside, I'd say our chance of doing a quad is in low single figures and it won't happen this year. Great to still be in four comps but we need to win at least one.
I'd have reckoned 50%kawkav said:NeilYoungIsBack said:Statt0 said:City to get quadruple - 80/1
I had a play around with some numbers a few days back. At this moment in time, given how we are positioned, City's chance of winning the following competitions could be something like:
* League Cup: 60%
* Premier League: 40%
* FA Cup: 10%
* Champions League: 5%
Multiplying all those through, City's chance of a quadruple = 0.12%
Or, expressed another way, a 99.88% chance that we won't win it.
Even if you added 10% to each of those percentages above (i.e. 70%, 50%, 20%, 15%) it's still only a 1% chance !!!
On that basis odds of 80/1 don't seem very attractive TBH.
Only 60%? really?
kawkav said:NeilYoungIsBack said:Statt0 said:City to get quadruple - 80/1
I had a play around with some numbers a few days back. At this moment in time, given how we are positioned, City's chance of winning the following competitions could be something like:
* League Cup: 60%
* Premier League: 40%
* FA Cup: 10%
* Champions League: 5%
Multiplying all those through, City's chance of a quadruple = 0.12%
Or, expressed another way, a 99.88% chance that we won't win it.
Even if you added 10% to each of those percentages above (i.e. 70%, 50%, 20%, 15%) it's still only a 1% chance !!!
On that basis odds of 80/1 don't seem very attractive TBH.
Only 60%? really?
Seems low to me, and to the bookies.
1.14 for the Capital Cup, 87.7%
1.90 for the FA Cup, 52.6%
2.10 for the League, 47.6%
11.00 for the CL, 9.1%
That puts us at 4.55 for a domestic treble, 21.97% - and 50.03 for the quadruple, 1.99%
tiptopcheshireblue
Well-Known Member
Like most sensible posters, i am not thinking about the Q word. Lets concentrate on doing our best against Barca on Tuesday.
As pellegrini says, lets take it one game at a time.
If by the beginning of May it is still on then lets get excited then.
As pellegrini says, lets take it one game at a time.
If by the beginning of May it is still on then lets get excited then.
kawkav
Well-Known Member
NeilYoungIsBack said:Statt0 said:City to get quadruple - 80/1
I had a play around with some numbers a few days back. At this moment in time, given how we are positioned, City's chance of winning the following competitions could be something like:
* League Cup: 60%
* Premier League: 40%
* FA Cup: 10%
* Champions League: 5%
Multiplying all those through, City's chance of a quadruple = 0.12%
Or, expressed another way, a 99.88% chance that we won't win it.
Even if you added 10% to each of those percentages above (i.e. 70%, 50%, 20%, 15%) it's still only a 1% chance !!!
On that basis odds of 80/1 don't seem very attractive TBH.
considering the remaining teams after quarter finals I would say we have solid 40% chance of FA Cup.
with four team in somewhat realistic race in PL we have 25% chance in league.
I give us a 80% chance of wining Capital.
CL is still the toughest one. I would say 1/16 which is about 6-7%