Another new Brexit thread

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aguero93:20 said:
"Sorry lads, you have a border that's been disputed, you can't join", would successfully disqualify every nation in Europe from joining.
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Fair point, but I think an exit strategy for all sides should have been in the small print, just like any other contract.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
Its a good explanation. It seems in order to maintain the GFA the EU needs to make an exception and accept that it cannot impose a border on Ireland/NI. The EU really should have considered this before allowing Ireland full membership. It cannot realistically expect to dictate land borders like this - it's the sort of thing Stalin and Hitler tried to do. It seems the EU project is just not viable sadly.
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FFS
Where do you start?
 
BobKowalski said:
No. I think a lot of Tory MPs in marginals and not so marginals don’t want it.
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Bit academic that. If Johnson calls for a GE, then there would be a majority for it. Labour and the other parties would support it, and I can't see all Tory MPs rebelling and voting it down, can you? With their majority of 1.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
Its a good explanation. It seems in order to maintain the GFA the EU needs to make an exception and accept that it cannot impose a border on Ireland/NI. The EU really should have considered this before allowing Ireland full membership. It cannot realistically expect to dictate land borders like this - it's the sort of thing Stalin and Hitler tried to do. It seems the EU project is just not viable sadly.
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I think maybe you missed something?

That Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK are actually also in the EU, and therefore no border is needed so long as we remain so.
 
Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese said:
Fair point, but I think an exit strategy for all sides should have been in the small print, just like any other contract.
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If I've got this right, you expected an agreement to end the Troubles to include a clause about how to return to the Troubles.

At the time there was no mechanism for a member state to leave the EU (that came in the Lisbon Treaty), and the GFA preamble included the aim, "(The British and Irish Governments) wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples, the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union". Brexit itself breaks the GFA.
 
kevin horlocks wand said:
No it will try and solve the impasse

There is no point having another long extension for even more uncertainty. It needs to come to an end one way or another .

We have a ludicrous situation of MPs not respecting the govt and all trying to form their own governments. It’s bonkers. It’s unworkable and nobody has any clue how to break the deadlock

At least a general election will strengthen the govt or weaken it and the balance can tip enough in one sides favour to find a resolution and an answer which might be a Lib Dem govt and revoke article 50.

However we need to have a working govt and civil service dominated by brexit for the next 5 years, they have been for the last 4 years. It needs to come to an end. It’s gone on too long and this indecision is causing more harm and deferring other priorities which need sorting.
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Agreed. I just don’t see a GE returning anything other than a hung Parliament and more futile attempts at processing a Brexit that end in failure. A GE just tells us what we already know. The country is evenly divided and the trade offs involved in Brexit are unacceptable to both sides of the divide for different reasons. We will be calling a GE because we have run out of other things to do and calling a GE is the one thing left that we can do.

I think the error lies in thinking that this situation can come to an end. Brexit is not a goal. It’s a never ending process. Revoke A50 and the deadline disappears but the arguments, the Brexit Party and a newly radicalised pro EU voting bloc don’t. Leave with a withdrawal deal and the next decade is spent arguing over the future relationship between the EU and two irreconcilable viewpoints within the U.K. Leave with no deal and the next decade is spent arguing over the future relationship again between two irreconcilable viewpoints in the U.K. but also between 27 hostile European countries.

We cannot end this because it simply cannot be ended no matter which path we take.
 
Vic said:
If I've got this right, you expected an agreement to end the Troubles to include a clause about how to return to the Troubles.

At the time there was no mechanism for a member state to leave the EU (that came in the Lisbon Treaty), and the GFA preamble included the aim, "(The British and Irish Governments) wishing to develop still further the unique relationship between their peoples, the close co-operation between their countries as friendly neighbours and as partners in the European Union". Brexit itself breaks the GFA.
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No, I meant that the EEC/EU/Common market agreement should have had a decent thought out exit strategy at the outset just like an employment, tenancy or any other number of agreements have. If this was found to be impossible at the time, then it should have been a barrier to joining.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Bit academic that. If Johnson calls for a GE, then there would be a majority for it. Labour and the other parties would support it, and I can't see all Tory MPs rebelling and voting it down, can you? With their majority of 1.
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To trigger a GE outside of a VONC you need two thirds of MPs to support it. I just don’t think there is much appetite amongst Tory MPs for an election with the U.K. still in the EU and promising to finally ‘and really, really mean it’ deliver Brexit.
 
Chippy_boy said:
Yes, I've heard that there is.

It's causing a bit of trouble regards the Irish border, where no such problem existed previously.
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Indeed. Perhaps the border needs to go, or be replaced with a welcoming sign and a few well kept flower beds like the one just north of Carlisle.
 
BobKowalski said:
To trigger a GE outside of a VONC you need two thirds of MPs to support it. I just don’t think there is much appetite amongst Tory MPs for an election with the U.K. still in the EU and promising to finally ‘and really, really mean it’ deliver Brexit.
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There's never much appetite for rebelling against your own PM either though, and consider the numbers:

A call for a GE needs 433 MPs to support it. (It could be 434, I am not positive).

The opposition parties, minus Sinn Fein will guarantee 332 votes, so another hundred (ish) needed.

To prevent a GE therefore, something like 210 of the 311 Tory MPs would have to vote against Johnson, in order to block the GE. That's never going to happen.
 
Chippy_boy said:
To prevent a GE therefore, something like 210 of the 311 Tory MPs would have to vote against Johnson, in order to block the GE. That's never going to happen.
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It would look truly odd if a PM requesting a GE was prevented by his own MPs without them trying to remove him as PM theemselves.
 
Chippy_boy said:
There's never much appetite for rebelling against your own PM either though, and consider the numbers:

A call for a GE needs 433 MPs to support it. (It could be 434, I am not positive).

The opposition parties, minus Sinn Fein will guarantee 332 votes, so another hundred (ish) needed.

To prevent a GE therefore, something like 210 of the 311 Tory MPs would have to vote against Johnson, in order to block the GE. That's never going to happen.
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Quite probable but Johnson won’t call for an election just to lose it and if Tory MPs have misgivings he won’t call for one. The point remains though that calling for a GE is not within Johnson’s gift. He needs his troops to back it
 
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