Another new Brexit thread

[Kazzydeyna]

No sarcasm at all boss. I would like to see a world without borders. @Kazzydeyna and you seem to want the same thing?

Truthfully I don't think a world without borders is a realistic possibility. I certainly wouldnt want to see the UK do it unilaterally.

I just want to see our borders treated the same for everyone, regardless of their nationality and that is impossible with FOM, without making them open for all which is impractical. Currently we have a situation where we say to circa 500m people "you can come in, pretty much no questions asked. Mi casa, Su casa". And becasue of that we have to actively discriminate against the other 6.5bn people and I think that's wrong

 

[Saddleworth2]

Wise words indeed - and I can agree and see a lot of sense in that

Some posters have clearly not wished to understand my views on the EU in the here and now - for some there is a compelling need to just barrack me to close down my views.

The construct is at, or is approaching, a series of events that will define its future - if it is to have one.

In years to come, the upcoming events will be viewed as either the catalyst to the existential crisis that saw the EU collapse - or, indeed, the driver which led to the EU completing its development into a geopolitical superpower - developing further to be a force equal to China or the US.

I have frequently said that if the UK was to Remain - then fuck off all these opt-outs (they would have become meaningless in a few years anyway) and commit to being at the heart of a federal superpower. That was because completing the journey to full federalism is the only prospect of survival for the EU - as your recent research as demonstrated - and if we are locked within the construct then I want it to survive.

Indeed, despite what the hard of understanding on here think, I would prefer the EU to survive in any and all circumstances - there is no good outcome for me, my family and their future generations that will derive from the collapse of the EU.

No - I want it to survive and prosper and for the UK to equally do so and develop healthy and long-lasting relationships - especially in trade.

But...….....

The fundamentals for succeeding in the evolution to a federal state are not there and not even visible on some distant horizon - whereas the conditions that will lead to collapse/implosion are only too obvious.

I have said before - it is generally not when you take the poison that you die - there can be a long drawn out process of decline and decay before entering the terminal stage.

For the EU, they took the poison when the ideologues took control and pursued their federalist dreams without first securing the firm foundations.

As only one example, this included when they started to allow, indeed actively attract, nations into the EU and into the Euro that did not meet the prescribed conditions. In doing that without ensuring conformance to the pre-determined and sensible principles, they ensured that their construction was built only on sand.

Then they have doubled down and further consolidated their path towards terminal decline through the bailouts without genuinely effective controls that ensured corrective actions to achieve conformance. Greece should have been thrown out of the Euro and when that did not happen - what prospect was there for any domestic government to drive through the necessary cultural changes. So here we are - the situation is far worse. And then along comes Italy...……….

No, unfortunately - and I do mean unfortunately - too much poison as been taken and the only antidote is for Germany and other Northern nations to actually write-off the debt and for the weaker nations to undertake genuine transformation to conform.

There is not any sign of that happening and therefore the conditions that will ensure that the EU will finally collapse are present and obvious - if people choose to look. The point of collapse/implosion is approaching - as your recent research suggests/demonstrates/evidences.

I have considered these things for many years - FFS the intention of the Constitution Treaty was pretty obvious. But my concerns extend back to the early 90s - and though watching events, they have grown into the sense of certainty that I display on here.

Anyway - apologies for extending what was started as a brief and jokey response into a lengthy one

Wise words indeed - and I can agree and see a lot of sense in that

Some posters have clearly not wished to understand my views on the EU in the here and now - for some there is a compelling need to just barrack me to close down my views.

The construct is at, or is approaching, a series of events that will define its future - if it is to have one.

In years to come, the upcoming events will be viewed as either the catalyst to the existential crisis that saw the EU collapse - or, indeed, the driver which led to the EU completing its development into a geopolitical superpower - developing further to be a force equal to China or the US.

I have frequently said that if the UK was to Remain - then fuck off all these opt-outs (they would have become meaningless in a few years anyway) and commit to being at the heart of a federal superpower. That was because completing the journey to full federalism is the only prospect of survival for the EU - as your recent research as demonstrated - and if we are locked within the construct then I want it to survive.

Indeed, despite what the hard of understanding on here think, I would prefer the EU to survive in any and all circumstances - there is no good outcome for me, my family and their future generations that will derive from the collapse of the EU.

No - I want it to survive and prosper and for the UK to equally do so and develop healthy and long-lasting relationships - especially in trade.

But...….....

The fundamentals for succeeding in the evolution to a federal state are not there and not even visible on some distant horizon - whereas the conditions that will lead to collapse/implosion are only too obvious.

I have said before - it is generally not when you take the poison that you die - there can be a long drawn out process of decline and decay before entering the terminal stage.

For the EU, they took the poison when the ideologues took control and pursued their federalist dreams without first securing the firm foundations.

As only one example, this included when they started to allow, indeed actively attract, nations into the EU and into the Euro that did not meet the prescribed conditions. In doing that without ensuring conformance to the pre-determined and sensible principles, they ensured that their construction was built only on sand.

Then they have doubled down and further consolidated their path towards terminal decline through the bailouts without genuinely effective controls that ensured corrective actions to achieve conformance. Greece should have been thrown out of the Euro and when that did not happen - what prospect was there for any domestic government to drive through the necessary cultural changes. So here we are - the situation is far worse. And then along comes Italy...……….

No, unfortunately - and I do mean unfortunately - too much poison as been taken and the only antidote is for Germany and other Northern nations to actually write-off the debt and for the weaker nations to undertake genuine transformation to conform.

There is not any sign of that happening and therefore the conditions that will ensure that the EU will finally collapse are present and obvious - if people choose to look. The point of collapse/implosion is approaching - as your recent research suggests/demonstrates/evidences.

I have considered these things for many years - FFS the intention of the Constitution Treaty was pretty obvious. But my concerns extend back to the early 90s - and though watching events, they have grown into the sense of certainty that I display on here.

Anyway - apologies for extending what was started as a brief and jokey response into a lengthy one

The EU will have as much on their plate as we do over the next six months. Some would say even more given the challenges they face getting their economies back into recovery mode. That might create an environment where if both sides were smart, a good, fair to both sides, trade deal should be altogether possible. I did say if both sides are smart though, and I detect intransigence within the negotiating teams. Time is on nobody's side.

As for the wider picture, of course I recognise the scenario you paint which is a logical one given the deep and historical cultural differences at play.

Collapse would mean the strong survive and the weak perish. Economies would crash and what other conflict could be spawned? The medicine for that potential outcome might have to be social, fiscal and political union and to hell with history and culture. My brain is not big enough to fashion another scenario that unpicks the integration that has already happened and sees the EU successfully revert to being a more simple trading model, but maybe smarter people than me could see that happening.

 

[mcfc1632]

The EU will have as much on their plate as we do over the next six months. Some would say even more given the challenges they face getting their economies back into recovery mode. That might create an environment where if both sides were smart, a good, fair to both sides, trade deal should be altogether possible. I did say if both sides are smart though, and I detect intransigence within the negotiating teams. Time is on nobody's side.

As for the wider picture, of course I recognise the scenario you paint which is a logical one given the deep and historical cultural differences at play.

Collapse would mean the strong survive and the weak perish. Economies would crash and what other conflict could be spawned? The medicine for that potential outcome might have to be social, fiscal and political union and to hell with history and culture. My brain is not big enough to fashion another scenario that unpicks the integration that has already happened and sees the EU successfully revert to being a more simple trading model, but maybe smarter people than me could see that happening.

Of course my concerns - as you can see from the last post - long pre-date the referendum - let alone the pandemic.

I have comments/views on the number of points that you make - and I would make some predictions about how things will go - but my daughter is insisting on gardening responsibilities

 

[Saddleworth2]

Of course my concerns - as you can see from the last post - long pre-date the referendum - let alone the pandemic.

I have comments/views on the number of points that you make - and I would make some predictions about how things will go - but my daughter is insisting on gardening responsibilities

So are you saying you're smarter than me ;-)

 

[mcfc1632]

So are you saying you're smarter than me ;-)

Just back in for a tea - rain stop play!!

Although rushed - I was trying to be careful in that reply

I quickly changed - I can suggest some scenarios to I have comments.....;-)

And most certainly I am not suggesting that I am smarter - I have just being doing the research for longer and in more depth;-)

 

[mcfc1632]

So are you saying you're smarter than me ;-)

Just a silly train of thought - in the vein of the 'sinking ships' analogies of recent days......

For me - but please remember my comments confirming that I do not want the EU to sink/collapse - the comparison I would make is the Bismarck.

Probably such a grand seeming ship that was able to strike a mixture of admiration, envy and fear into all who saw or heard of her.

I could well imagine the high-handed thoughts of superiority in all those who sailed in her and how daunted the UK and allied forces must have been by her rumoured/perceived might.

But in the end - she never achieved the goals that people were so confident of and ended her days just hoping for a quiet period from which she could recover.

As it was - events would not provide that period and eventually her ability to steer was crippled and her commanders were unable to control her direction - leaving her open to further debilitating attacks - until the inevitable…..

Anyway - just musing

 

[Tb1981]

Just a bit of faux outrage.

You would know

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

I think his and your source is more likely to be the Express, which earlier this year seemed to think it was "news" that there was a Blair cabinet split over whether to join the Euro. Implying that this was "caused by the EU debate" as if there was a debate about EU membership is, well, a bit twisty.

Never read the express, and tbh was just going by my own memory of current affairs at the time which would have been terrestrial TV around then. A quick Google shows that whole the guardian were doing anything they could to deny a Labour split on the EU the other papers were reporting it - not just the red tops either.

 

[Vic]

Never read the express, and tbh was just going by my own memory of current affairs at the time which would have been terrestrial TV around then. A quick Google shows that whole the guardian were doing anything they could to deny a Labour split on the EU the other papers were reporting it - not just the red tops either.

Citation needed.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

Citation needed.

By who? Use Google if you need reassured. In the meantime I can supply these - I'm not sure how quickly you read, so I've put page numbers where only a part of the article / book is relevant. I have plenty of post 2001 if you like, but you appeared to need citations for my point about the Blair govt split on the EU. I've gone for my own preference as I wasn't sure if you preferred Harvard/Chicago style citations - Each university tends to have their own conventions on this tbh.

Meredith, Stephen C. "A Catalyst for Secession? European Divisions on the Parliamentary Right of the Labour Party 1962–72 and the Schism of British Social Democracy." Historical Research 85, no. 228 (2012): 329-51.

Crain, M., and K. Matheny. "Labor's Identity Crisis." California Law Review 89, no. 6 (2001): 1767-846.

Rothchild, Donald. "British Labour [party] and European Union." Social Research 23 (1956): 89-105.

Aughey, Arthur. Nationalism, Devolution, and the Challenge to the United Kingdom State. London ; Sterling, Va.: Pluto Press, 2001.

Bulmer, Simon. "New Labour, New European Policy? Blair, Brown and Utilitarian Supranationalism." Parliamentary Affairs 61, no. 4 (2008): 597-620.

Gaffney, John. Political Parties and the European Union. London ; New York: Routledge, 1996.

Heath, A. F., Jowell, Roger, and Curtice, John. The Rise of New Labour Party Policies and Voter Choices. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2001.

Baimbridge, Mark., Burkitt, Brian, and Whyman, Philip. Implications of the Euro a Critical Perspective from the Left. London: Routledge, 2006.