Another new Brexit thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Think we can all embrace a forecast from 5 months ago that is based on our economic links with Europe remaining unchanged. All aboard the Norway option. Works for me.

Has anything happened since January? Anything major? Sure I read something about a virus the other day? Probably nothing. I’m off to read more January articles. They are much less gloomy than June articles.
 
Having yesterday posted an article that I felt summarised the main Remainer positions of 2020 - I came across this article which I think sums up some of my thoughts on some key issues nicely:

Re Johnson:

"...….the potential fly in the ointment in all this is Boris Johnson’s increasing personal participation in the talks. His making disadvantageous concessions just for the sake of a deal, either out of his habitual distaste for fine detail or a desire to appease opponents of No-Deal for purely domestic political reasons, can’t be ruled out."

Re the constant blather about the City of London losing out to Frankfurt etc.

"Well that wasn’t in the anti-Brexit fanatics’ Project Fear script, was it? Britain remaining the European country most attractive for foreign direct investment (FDI), suffering the least decline in inward FDI of all European countries in 2019, and beating the rest of Europe as the most attractive destination for financial services FDI post-Covid-19 by a margin of 40 per cent to a mere 8 per cent."

Re the prospect of an extension to transition:

"In fact, extending the transition period would be not merely unproductive but counter-productive. As our own economy struggles to recover, we would continue to be liable both for current EU contributions and any additional ones the EU demanded as part of its own Covid-19 recovery package without any input into determining either their scale or qualification criteria."

Re fishing - and its leverage in negotiations rather than narrow thinking of what we eat and how big our fleet is - and also my concern of how it is likely that leverage will be mishandled/traded away:

"...….Considering the degree to which the EU’s fishing industry is dependent on such access, this looks like a blatant subterfuge, and should be dismissed out of hand.

The scale of leverage Britain enjoys over that dependence is such that it’s being suggested it should be partly traded away in return for major EU concessions on ‘rules of origin’ trade rules. Given that the EU has a history of either accepting concessions while offering non-equivalent ones in return or of demanding even more, that too should be approached warily. Time and time again Brussels has shown that it is neither honest broker nor reliable interlocutor.

Rightly or wrongly, fishing and the sovereignty of its national territorial waters are symbolic issues, by which Johnson will be judged whether he has either succeeded in extricating Britain from the authoritarian, rapacious maw of the EU or capitulated to it, however disingenuously the surrender would be spun. We would be unwise to bet against the latter outcome."

https://conservativewoman.co.uk/tcws-brexit-watch-brussels-is-still-after-our-fish/

Ah I do love me an article that concentrates on financial services FDI and avoids mentioning overall FDI figures. Still good news for the City. Always happy to see my old stomping ground doing well.

The bit about the Covid recovery fund is incorrect by the way. Extension of transition will not incur any liabilities or benefits to the UK.

And if we are going to judge the success or otherwise of negotiations on the symbolic issue of fucking fish then we are fucked before we start. The UK is a modern integrated European service based economy not a fucking Cornish fishing village.

That said they seem to have assessed Johnson correctly and are clearly concerned the giant bladder will fold. Can’t imagine what gives them that idea.
 
Did AC realise they were forecasts five months old about what happens with a comprehensive deal? I think we should be told.
I think he does now.

Still, I have no problem hoping for the best and we end up with a Norway or more likely Switzerland type arrangement after transition. I don’t think that article covered the No Deal or very basic FTA case.
 
Mcfc1632 even posted an article about something going wrong because in his polluted mind it meant the EU was worried.

We're all worried - except Brexit fanboys happy to let chaos ensue.

What is "it" we want to fail?

More to the point, what is "it" you want to succeed? I really don't think you know. If you do know, I know it will be some unicorn cake and eat it fantasy that never really amounted to "a plan".

they’re similar to Trump supporters- just will stick by the decision no matter what, whatever the chaos, whatever the consequences is irrelevant to them, they ‘won’ and that’s all that matters.
 
they’re similar to Trump supporters- just will stick by the decision no matter what, whatever the chaos, whatever the consequences is irrelevant to them, they ‘won’ and that’s all that matters.
It's the natural reaction to an opposing view that sees remaining in the EU as the magic solution to nearly any problem you can imagine, and the political 'gamesmanship' employed over the past couple of years.
 
It's the natural reaction to an opposing view that sees remaining in the EU as the magic solution to nearly any problem you can imagine, and the political 'gamesmanship' employed over the past couple of years.

That’s a cop out excuse. No one has ever claimed membership is a magic solution and ‘gamesmanship’ was played on both sides of the divide or have you forgotten the shenanigans employed by the ERG or even the DUP until they were sold down the river?

The failure to engage with the reality of Brexit is no different to Republicans and Conservatives in the US failing to engage with the reality of Covid 19. You guys are only equipped to fight the fictitious enemies that exist in your own heads.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Don't have an account? Register now and see fewer ads!

SIGN UP
Back
Top
  AdBlock Detected
Bluemoon relies on advertising to pay our hosting fees. Please support the site by disabling your ad blocking software to help keep the forum sustainable. Thanks.