Another new Brexit thread

[MillionMilesAway]

Of course I can't expect the EU to consider the GFA decades brfore it existed, I meant they should have considered the potential difficulties of the land border. I'm actually surprised the EU are so keen to perpetuate an imaginary border based purely upon sectarian / racial / ethnic grounds in this day and age, but that's probably a separate discussion.

That makes so little sense to me, I can't work out it's meant to mean.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

That makes so little sense to me, I can't work out it's meant to mean.

Nevermind. It probably doesn't matter anyway - it's only the internet mate.

 

[aguero93:20]

Of course I can't expect the EU to consider the GFA decades brfore it existed, I meant they should have considered the potential difficulties of the land border. I'm actually surprised the EU are so keen to perpetuate an imaginary border based purely upon sectarian / racial / ethnic grounds in this day and age, but that's probably a separate discussion.

It's a national border, not an imaginary one. Why would the EU have considered the (at the time) hard border between two countries that joined on the same day to be an issue?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

It's a national border, not an imaginary one. Why would the EU have considered the (at the time) hard border between two countries that joined on the same day to be an issue?

I'm just saying they should have perhaps considered that like anywhere else in the world that the british have tried to solve a problem by drawing an arbitrary line on a map (I think it's called annexing when the bad guys do it) it tends to not be that stable. Therefore not perhaps sensible to assume that it is a reliable border. Granted it was a decent way to keep a load of decedents of transplanted angry protestant Scots happy at the time, but it just seems silly now that the border should be any more significant than the one at Gretna or the Severn bridge nowadays. Reunification is clearly the answer, but I suppose like remain this won't be a majority view until some old angry 'gammon' dies off.

 

[BobKowalski]

The EU does not need to bend at all IMO.

I am not talking about macho negotiations - just basic good management and planning

The EU must/should do what us best for the EU

The UK should do what is best for it and that is to leave the EU in the manner which is best for the UK and that can be achieved.

So - straight - forward and basic, we - if we are committed to leave - should have been full on preparing for leaving without a deal in case an acceptable deal was not available.

This is just basic planning - and indeed it would make my statement absolutely spot on - even if in the end we see no movement from the EU then we will have been in the best position to leave anyway.

The problem with planning for no deal is that a lot of the planning rests on what outside parties will or won’t do. Will the French insist on every form being filled in and every box being checked from one minute past midnight or one hour or one day or one week? Will the EU insist that we use non EU pallets to transport/store goods given we are not an EU country? If the French cut up will we divert to Holland and what if they then put on the squeeze?

How do you plan for scenarios that are not within your control? How do you mitigate the consequences when you can do nothing to mitigate them? How do you mitigate finding yourself as the ‘hostile’ actor surrounded by 27 antagonistic countries one of whom you share a contentious land border with and another who controls a key supply ‘choke’ point? How does a minority Govt with no popular mandate cope with the legal and political challenges to it posed by the devolved Govts of Scotland and Wales? Does the British State have the capacity to cope with any systematic breakdowns given that ten years of austerity have seriously eroded its capacity to act? Local Govt is cash strapped. Police numbers have been slashed. The Justice service can barely cope. The Prison service ditto.

And these are just the brief highlights. You really think we can ‘plan’ a no deal scenario that isn’t much more than converting an airfield into a lorry park and rolling out a leaflet campaign advising the public and business not to panic?

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

To take things away from Ireland for a while.

If this temporary govt does get traction and stops no deal. What happens after they achieve that aim.

Do they try and get a deal , do they revoke is it a second referendum. What is the plan as I think labour and Lib Dem’s have different aims

Does the temporary govt carry on as the govt , or after they have stopped it does the temporary nature stop and the Tories take over again.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

To take things away from Ireland for a while.

If this temporary govt does get traction and stops no deal. What happens after they achieve that aim.

Do they try and get a deal , do they revoke is it a second referendum. What is the plan as I think labour and Lib Dem’s have different aims

Does the temporary govt carry on as the govt , or after they have stopped it does the temporary nature stop and the Tories take over again.

They don't care as long as they stop brexit and keep their well paid jobs.

 

[blueparrot]

To take things away from Ireland for a while.

If this temporary govt does get traction and stops no deal. What happens after they achieve that aim.

Do they try and get a deal , do they revoke is it a second referendum. What is the plan as I think labour and Lib Dem’s have different aims

Does the temporary govt carry on as the govt , or after they have stopped it does the temporary nature stop and the Tories take over again.

This temporary government only gets traction if there is an agreed road map , so I don't know the answer but if we get to that stage it will be because the parties involved are all agreed on the order of actions after stopping no deal and I would expect a fairly long extension.

 

[blueinsa]

To take things away from Ireland for a while.

If this temporary govt does get traction and stops no deal. What happens after they achieve that aim.

Do they try and get a deal , do they revoke is it a second referendum. What is the plan as I think labour and Lib Dem’s have different aims

Does the temporary govt carry on as the govt , or after they have stopped it does the temporary nature stop and the Tories take over again.

At the next GE my guess is many of them will be deselected or beaten and the make up of parliament will change yet again and this merry go round will continue.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

At the next GE my guess is many of them will be deselected or beaten and the make up of parliament will change yet again and this merry go round will continue.

It’s starting to feel like a general election is coming and the only way forward.

 

[George Hannah]

I'm just saying they should have perhaps considered that like anywhere else in the world that the british have tried to solve a problem by drawing an arbitrary line on a map (I think it's called annexing when the bad guys do it) it tends to not be that stable. Therefore not perhaps sensible to assume that it is a reliable border. Granted it was a decent way to keep a load of decedents of transplanted angry protestant Scots happy at the time, but it just seems silly now that the border should be any more significant than the one at Gretna or the Severn bridge nowadays. Reunification is clearly the answer, but I suppose like remain this won't be a majority view until some old angry 'gammon' dies off.

We drew lines round your motley collection of cantons too. You should be more grateful and desist from calling them all arbitrary borders, the Ulster partition was inevitable and avoided bloodshed on an unprecedented scale.

 

[aguero93:20]

I'm just saying they should have perhaps considered that like anywhere else in the world that the british have tried to solve a problem by drawing an arbitrary line on a map (I think it's called annexing when the bad guys do it) it tends to not be that stable. Therefore not perhaps sensible to assume that it is a reliable border. Granted it was a decent way to keep a load of decedents of transplanted angry protestant Scots happy at the time, but it just seems silly now that the border should be any more significant than the one at Gretna or the Severn bridge nowadays. Reunification is clearly the answer, but I suppose like remain this won't be a majority view until some old angry 'gammon' dies off.

"Sorry lads, you have a border that's been disputed, you can't join", would successfully disqualify every nation in Europe from joining.

 

[Metal Biker]

It’s starting to feel like a general election is coming and the only way forward.

With the BXP on the scene all I can see is another hung parliament, leading to either a Lab/Lib coalition or a Con/BXP one.

 

[Vic]

The EU does not need to bend at all IMO.

I am not talking about macho negotiations - just basic good management and planning

The EU must/should do what us best for the EU

The UK should do what is best for it and that is to leave the EU in the manner which is best for the UK and that can be achieved.

So - straight - forward and basic, we - if we are committed to leave - should have been full on preparing for leaving without a deal in case an acceptable deal was not available.

This is just basic planning - and indeed it would make my statement absolutely spot on - even if in the end we see no movement from the EU then we will have been in the best position to leave anyway.

Ah, like the Pool, the team that became known as the Shudders because they shudder won this and they shudder won that.

You shudder put that "straightforward basic planning" to the people instead of promising we'd still be in a free trade zone from Iceland to the Russian border (or a deal like Norway, or like Canada).

But the reality is that wasn't put to the people, was it?

 

[BobKowalski]

It’s starting to feel like a general election is coming and the only way forward.

Forward to what though? We seem to lack the capacity to see beyond the immediate. Like the focus on 31st Oct and leaving with ‘no deal’ as if that solves the issue yet no one asks ‘what happens next?’. You can’t replace four decades of economic integration with nothing.

A GE is just displacement activity. An excuse to do something that is within our control to avoid tackling the issues that are out of our control.

 

[blueinsa]

It’s starting to feel like a general election is coming and the only way forward.

The second a VoNC is announced and he thinks he will lose he will trigger a GE.

 

[BobKowalski]

The second a VoNC is announced and he thinks he will lose he will trigger a GE.

He can’t. He can request the House vote for a GE but Johnson can not trigger it.

 

[blueinsa]

He can’t. He can request the House vote for a GE but Johnson can not trigger it.

Its what the Labour party have wanted all along isn't it?

You telling me they will suddenly not want it?

 

[BobKowalski]

Its what the Labour party have wanted all along isn't it?

You telling me they will suddenly not want it?

No. I think a lot of Tory MPs in marginals and not so marginals don’t want it.

 

[kevin horlocks wand]

Forward to what though? We seem to lack the capacity to see beyond the immediate. Like the focus on 31st Oct and leaving with ‘no deal’ as if that solves the issue yet no one asks ‘what happens next?’. You can’t replace four decades of economic integration with nothing.

A GE is just displacement activity. An excuse to do something that is within our control to avoid tackling the issues that are out of our control.

No it will try and solve the impasse

There is no point having another long extension for even more uncertainty. It needs to come to an end one way or another .

We have a ludicrous situation of MPs not respecting the govt and all trying to form their own governments. It’s bonkers. It’s unworkable and nobody has any clue how to break the deadlock

At least a general election will strengthen the govt or weaken it and the balance can tip enough in one sides favour to find a resolution and an answer which might be a Lib Dem govt and revoke article 50.

However we need to have a working govt and civil service dominated by brexit for the next 5 years, they have been for the last 4 years. It needs to come to an end. It’s gone on too long and this indecision is causing more harm and deferring other priorities which need sorting.