Another new Brexit thread

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Yet Govt policy plays its part. We know this because the Govt is pledging to help businesses financially impacted by Brexit. Do Thomas Cook qualify? Would Thomas Cook have survived if the impact of currency devaluation driven by Govt policy had not happened?

TC posted half-yearly losses of £1.5 billion back in May. Bosses have taken £30 million out of the company over the past few years. I think it's fair to say that currency devaluations due to the Brexit vote are only a minor contributor to the main issues at Thomas Cook, which many are putting down to bad management and mismanagement. In any case, the pound to Euro rate - as shit as it is - is still better than it was at the height of the global banking crisis.
 
There will be a customs border. Johnson is currently proposing plans that will see elements of a land border and sea border as well as accepting NI regulatory alignment with the EU on Agri goods. If the U.K. starts to diverge from EU regulatory standards as Johnson wants, ie lower, then the border will get harder. The U.K. now accepts that there will be a border just as we now accept we can’t have the same degree of frictionless trade. May’s ambition for no physical border and to replicate the frictionless trade we currently enjoy have been abandoned.
Was this not always though the logical outcome?

Question is what constitutes a border - it does have to resemble checkpoint Charlie

Seems only common sense to me - although many people have sought to avoid saying it
 
Bob makes a valid point. It would be unfair to lump the performance of various company's in various sectors together in terms of performance now and post brexit as if it was just a matter of bussiness excellence. Yours is a lazy argument imho that dodges the complexity regarding economics for Brexit.
So explain how Dart and its other competitors are in a different sector and why they prospered in exactly the same conditions as TC failed.
Come on get flapping FD - no slacking otherwise its the orange sauce for you.
 
TC posted half-yearly losses of £1.5 billion back in May. Bosses have taken £30 million out of the company over the past few years. I think it's fair to say that currency devaluations due to the Brexit vote are only a minor contributor to the main issues at Thomas Cook, which many are putting down to bad management and mismanagement. In any case, the pound to Euro rate - as shit as it is - is still better than it was at the height of the global banking crisis.

I also love how Brexit is explained away with ‘yeah ok it’s shit but it’s not as shit as when the global economy was melting’. What happened to those sunlit uplands we were promised? Did Thomas Cook forget to reserve those packages in paradise?
 
I also love how Brexit is explained away with ‘yeah ok it’s shit but it’s not as shit as when the global economy was melting’. What happened to those sunlit uplands we were promised? Did Thomas Cook forget to reserve those packages in paradise?

Bob, the point is that Brexit isn't the sole reason that Thomas Cook have gone bust, and it isn't the main reason either, and I'm sure you're not daft enough to think it is.

I booked a holiday with TC back in August 2016 at short notice to Kefalonia. It cost us around £200 each for flights, transfers, and 7 nights accomodation. That's a fucking ridiculously cheap price and while it was a great deal for me and the other half, there's no way in a million years they were making a profit on that, and in all probably were making a substantial loss. That's not how you run a business mate.
 
So explain how Dart and its other competitors are in a different sector and why they prospered in exactly the same conditions as TC failed.
Come on get flapping FD - no slacking otherwise its the orange sauce for you.

Complexity goes far beyond just simply what sector company's are in when it comes to airlines in the context of Brexit. Basicly, there is no way based on youre impression of "some are just better than others" to guage to what extend different airlines are exposed to the consequences of Brexit, but it's very rational to consider that some will be more exposed than others.
 
Was this not always though the logical outcome?

Question is what constitutes a border - it does have to resemble checkpoint Charlie

Seems only common sense to me - although many people have sought to avoid saying it

Ah you got there. Welcome to the border discussion and what constitutes a border.

It’s first and foremost about identity. For Nationalists and Unionists. And where you put that border, where you do those ‘checks’ and how you police or monitor that border impacts on that identity. And how it impacts will determine the reaction and hostility to it and from which camp that hostility comes from.

All three sides, UK, RoI and EU, have to find an agreeable Brexit solution that also has to find favour with both Nationalists and Unionists in NI. So far there is no agreeable Brexit solution and in my opinion there will be no agreeable Brexit solution because there is none.
 
Complexity goes far beyond just simply what sector company's are in when it comes to airlines in the context of Brexit. Basicly, there is no way based on youre impression of "some are just better than others" to guage to what extend different airlines are exposed to the consequences of Brexit, but it's very rational to consider that some will be more exposed than others.

True, but as some are saying in the TC thread their flight prices to Vegas, for example, were way cheaper than their competitors such as Virgin. I've just posted an example above of an incredibly cheap holiday I booked with them a few years back. Perhaps if they'd put their prices up a bit while remaining competitive, they might not have gotten in such a mess.
 
The current Morning Star view on Brexit



"JOHNSON’S visit to Brussels underlines the need for a clear left alternative on the EU.

Johnson may indeed get a deal. The EU economy is teetering towards recession. Germany’s industrial output is 5 per cent down on that a year ago and it will be German exports that will take the biggest hit if Britain leaves without a deal.

But the question remains: what kind of deal?

If it is Theresa May’s deal with Irish border controls removed and agricultural standards in the North of Ireland maintained in harmony with those in the South, there still remain the commitments given in the accompanying Withdrawal Declaration for Britain to adopt the pro-business, neoliberal competition laws of the EU single market

On the other hand, if Johnson does not get a deal, it is clear that every effort will be made to engineer a caretaker government to displace Johnson and block any kind of exit settlement with the EU.

The Liberal Democrats under Jo Swinson have indicated their intention to work both with dissident Conservatives and a Labour majority leader as long as it is not Jeremy Corbyn.

They have also made clear their total contempt for any kind of democracy by announcing that they would, in government, scrap the referendum result without holding a further referendum.

Even forgetting their previous abandonment of election promises by joining David Cameron’s austerity government in 2010 — with Swinson becoming a junior employment minister pushing through anti-trade union legislation — this should make them out of bounds for any member of the Labour Party.


Disagreeing with the referendum result, or even wanting a second, is one thing. Just scrapping it is another. They may be Liberals. They are certainly not democrats.

This is why there must be a left alternative. And of course there is one. Jeremy Corbyn has repeatedly advanced it. Britain should remain aligned to the EU single market in terms of environment, health, food and employment standards but not accept the EU’s neoliberal competition terms.

Corbyn lays down this condition in order to protect Labour’s past election commitments. The EU’s competition terms would block almost every progressive element of Labour’s programme for change: comprehensive pubic ownership, state aid, a state investment bank to take stakes in key companies, the proactive use of public procurement for regional development and, not least, mandatory sectoral collective bargaining.



Take this away and Labour would indeed be unelectable. The current plots to create a centrist caretaker government would seem to have as much to do with ending the prospect of a left-led Labour government as about reversing the result of the EU referendum.

Trade unionists in particular should be aware of the consequences. Membership of the EU does not guarantee employment rights.

Today’s report from the Resolution Foundation showed that. The shockingly large number of workers not receiving their statutory rights is closely related to the low level of collective bargaining, now below 30 per cent. Britain has been in the EU for over 40 years.

In fact, of course, the EU actively discourages collective bargaining. Its 2012 document Labour Movement Developments details the interventions required to reduce the “wage-setting power” of trade unions.

The past seven years have seen the consequences. In Greece, under EU debt supervision, collective bargaining has declined from 80 per cent to 20 per cent. The decline in Portugal, in similar circumstances, has been almost as severe.

This is why the trade union movement needs to speak out. There is a left alternative. It must be defended.

Otherwise the right, whether represented by Johnson or by Swinson and her right-wing Labour allies, will win"



https://morningstaronline.co.uk/article/e/we-must-speak-out-and-defend-left-alternative-eu-corbynism


I think you leavers will approve, surely.




The level of stupidity in that article is horrific.

So the LibDems weren’t behaving democratically in 2010 when the were the junior partner in a coalition and had to scrap some of their manifesto policies but now if they win a majority and enact their main policy they’re also undemocratic.

Make your fucking mind up Mr journalist.
 
I also love how Brexit is explained away with ‘yeah ok it’s shit but it’s not as shit as when the global economy was melting’. What happened to those sunlit uplands we were promised? Did Thomas Cook forget to reserve those packages in paradise?
TC is not a horse to be riding in that argument, there are many better bets still heading for the glue factory unless a no deal is stopped.
 
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Was this not always though the logical outcome?

Question is what constitutes a border - it does have to resemble checkpoint Charlie

Seems only common sense to me - although many people have sought to avoid saying it

Any border like that involves people in uniforms standing there checking vehicles and paperwork etc - would you fancy taking that job on? Not withstanding the history it is incredibly impractical for such a small community / country. The logical way round is not to have NI as part of the UK and that is what kick starts the troubles there is also the secondary issue that it fires up the Scottish independence debate and brings the break up of the union in to serious political debate.

The logical outcome is to wrestle with these two alternate ways forward over the next couple of years and both of them are very bad outcomes. I don't see anyone sorting this out, it will just be a lingering mess.
 
Retaining NI in a NI backstop was initially proposed by the EU in 2017 and is their preferred option. Dublin would also be happy. Not happy will be the DUP and Unionists in NI. For any solution to work it will need Unionist and Nationalist consent. Dual consent is at the heart of the GFA.
Yep - we all know this - or at least should do..

If May had not fucked up her majority....

The difference will be some pre -determination over criteria to exit the backstop
 
Bob, the point is that Brexit isn't the sole reason that Thomas Cook have gone bust, and it isn't the main reason either, and I'm sure you're not daft enough to think it is.

I booked a holiday with TC back in August 2016 at short notice to Kefalonia. It cost us around £200 each for flights, transfers, and 7 nights accomodation. That's a fucking ridiculously cheap price and while it was a great deal for me and the other half, there's no way in a million years they were making a profit on that, and in all probably were making a substantial loss. That's not how you run a business mate.

I never said it was. I said it was a factor along with all the many factors that dictated TC’s collapse. Saying it was the only factor is as wrong as saying it wasn’t a factor at all.
 
Complexity goes far beyond just simply what sector company's are in when it comes to airlines in the context of Brexit. Basicly, there is no way based on youre impression of "some are just better than others" to guage to what extend different airlines are exposed to the consequences of Brexit, but it's very rational to consider that some will be more exposed than others.
Did you quack that while submerged?
 
The level of stupidity in that article is horrific.

So the LibDems weren’t behaving democratically in 2010 when the were the junior partner in a coalition and had to scrap some of their manifesto policies but now if they win a majority and enact their main policy they’re also undemocratic.

Make your fucking mind up Mr journalist.

An interesting take on it.

I thought it would be valuable to get the lexit view on here as it is rarely mentioned and as I would have been a lexiteer it encapsulates much of what I believe to be true.

Sadly its not the Labour parties position, if it was I think it would be in Government come the next election as it resonates.
 
Oh - please do ensure that the forum benefits from the quality of your analysis

Bring it on - let's see an example of such detailed analysis. It is not just me - I am sure that the entire forum is waiting with bated breath to hear your profound asessments

You are normally just full of insults and ridicule - generally reduced to only offering snide and cheap shots - so this is your chance to show you have some substance

So - set out what - in your opinion - are the Top 10 disadvantages to the UK leaving the EU and we can take it from there, but to help you get started:

What about the importance of maintaining your existing export markets?

What about the importance of trading with those countries geographically close to you - remember the importance of JIT?

What about the ability to cross unhindered across borders?

What about settlement of the WA and associated costs before commencing a trade deal?

What about unravelling 40 years (let alone a lot more) of close working/integration?

Come on - you can do more than just make cheap shots - as Delia would say:

'Let's be having you....'

If you do/can not - that you will have confirmed sooooo much
As my comment was about Scottish independence why are you asking me about Brexit?
Struggling with comprehension?
I've made my position clear on both issues on numerous occasions so if you're that interested use the search function.
 
An interesting take on it.

I thought it would be valuable to get the lexit view on here as it is rarely mentioned and as I would have been a lexiteer it encapsulates much of what I believe to be true.

Sadly its not the Labour parties position, if it was I think it would be in Government come the next election as it resonates.

I appreciate the rest of the article has legitimacy and Lexit is a perfectly reasonable position to take if you wish to truly become a socialist state. I don’t want that but it’s a legitimate argument.

I just find the whole argument against the LibDem revoke position to be painful and short sighted. A general election and a majority is the biggest mandate you can get. If they win and revoke then the public has voted for that to happen and for them to do so, it’ll be a bigger share of the vote than any other possibility regarding Brexit.
 
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