Another new Brexit thread

[TheRemainsOfTheDave]

Doubt it aren't France a big walnut producer.

9th biggest producer by tonnage in the world, biggest in the EU.

(C) Dave's Walnut News Corporation

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Farridge just announced its Canada ++ but without the level playing field (alignment) ... trying to say that we'll get a great deal but wont have to conform to any standards or rules.



I cant breathe..... sooooo funny


Best he not give up the day job tho as circuses aren't recruiting at the mo.

Lol - having no regulatory alignment pretty much rules out any deal. What would be the point of EU rules if they just let us flood the market with non compliant products.

This is the crux of brexit- having a deal and SM access means regulatory alignment and a mechanism to police it (the ECJ). You can sign up to something else which is the same but different (soft brexit / BRINO). Or you have a very limited deal that is not full Single Market access and as a result wrecks the economy. This has been the issue since day 1 and they are still BSing us on it.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Which Johnson has said will not happen. Now I know the man cannot be trusted but on this I think he means it. He has to mean to control his party as it lurches further to the right.

I get that you disagree but for the reasons I have posted no deal, is in my opinion, the most likely outcome.

Not sure on No Deal being the likely outcome, depends on the make up of MPs and size of any majority. If he just scrapes a majority then a number will shit the bed and block it (as they should) as there will no doubt be a small number with enough common sense to know that a No Deal brexit will bring down any government within 6 months. It would be an epic disaster and they won't want it on there CV. Far more likely we will have 5 years of drawn out rankling in my book than a no deal. The only caveat being the makeup of the new Tory MPs, if the add 50 odd Mark Francois types to the current mob then it could well happen.

 

[BlueAnorak]

Define ‘Canada plus’, to be precise define ‘plus’.

Food exports (benefits the EU more than it benefits the UK).
Some Services (benefits the UK more than the EU)
Fishing may well be the deal breaker though in which case standard Canada would be delivered. At least 2/3 of fish in UK waters would have to be marked for the UK).

 

[Ban-jani]

Food exports (benefits the EU more than it benefits the UK).
Some Services (benefits the UK more than the EU)
Fishing may well be the deal breaker though in which case standard Canada would be delivered. At least 2/3 of fish in UK waters would have to be marked for the UK).

If it comes down to it just give them fishing.

It’s 0.12% of our GDP.

As long as we can go into theirs still.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

If it comes down to it just give them fishing.

It’s 0.12% of our GDP.

As long as we can go into theirs still.

Fishing rights is the biggest con of Brexit. There are 2 things at play - rights and quotas. We sold the rights to UK fishing coastal years ago - they are now mostly in hands of large corporations. Brexit does not bring them back. If we drop out of the quota sthen we are just ignoring the science and who benefits - the big corps who own the licenses and boats.

The idea that hard up fisherman in big woolly jumpers will have a post brexit bonanza is BS. It is a theme that plays on people misconceptions and ignorance about the reality. Fishing is small beans to the UK and what beans it is sit in the hands of big business - not the little man. Summary: when brexiteers bang on about brexit and fish they all BSing you.

 

[BobKowalski]

Food exports (benefits the EU more than it benefits the UK).
Some Services (benefits the UK more than the EU)
Fishing may well be the deal breaker though in which case standard Canada would be delivered. At least 2/3 of fish in UK waters would have to be marked for the UK).

We import about a third of our food from the EU. Just in time supply lines and tariff free. Who is that benefiting most?
Services is people. Freedom of movement like the free movement of goods is needed. Also recognition of qualifications and standards. The Canada deal doesn’t include services so that ‘plus’ part is huge. FTA’s commonly only cover goods not services. So make that huge times ten.
Fishing is a red herring. We export to the EU what we catch. We import what we eat. Politically very sensitive. Economically largely irrelevant and we sold off most of our fishing rights to big business anyway.

Add in the anchor that is NI moored in the EU zone and the intersection with NI businesses and GB businesses and the restrictions that the WA legally places on this intersection and the fact we have to make the dual customs protocols work in NI and well yeah none of this is getting done in 11 months.

Personal view but I don’t think the U.K. has the state capacity or capability to deliver any of this in years let alone months. This applies to whichever party wins the election given Labour is also committed to negotiating a deal of some description.

 

[George Hannah]

We import about a third of our food from the EU. Just in time supply lines and tariff free. Who is that benefiting most?
Services is people. Freedom of movement like the free movement of goods is needed. Also recognition of qualifications and standards. The Canada deal doesn’t include services so that ‘plus’ part is huge. FTA’s commonly only cover goods not services. So make that huge times ten.
Fishing is a red herring. We export to the EU what we catch. We import what we eat. Politically very sensitive. Economically largely irrelevant and we sold off most of our fishing rights to big business anyway.

Add in the anchor that is NI moored in the EU zone and the intersection with NI businesses and GB businesses and the restrictions that the WA legally places on this intersection and the fact we have to make the dual customs protocols work in NI and well yeah none of this is getting done in 11 months.

Personal view but I don’t think the U.K. has the state capacity or capability to deliver any of this in years let alone months. This applies to whichever party wins the election given Labour is also committed to negotiating a deal of some description.

I think your estimation of our economic potential is rather pessimistic.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Personal view but I don’t think the U.K. has the state capacity or capability to deliver any of this in years let alone months. This applies to whichever party wins the election given Labour is also committed to negotiating a deal of some description.

To be fair to Labour they would do a soft deal and that is very do-able a it suits all sides. Once you start alligning and making concessions then all the big issues fall away. Easily could be done in theory in time for a ref within 6 months and then remain would win anyway.

I think your estimation of our economic potential is rather pessimistic.

We do masses of trade with the EU. It's a fact. Hard brexit puts barriers in the way and the idea that has no impact is fantasy. It is an impediment to both importers and exporters. Drives up tegh prices of what we buy and reduces the competitiveness of what we sell - a net loss however you spin it.

 

[George Hannah]

To be fair to Labour they would do a soft deal and that is very do-able a it suits all sides. Once you start alligning and making concessions then all the big issues fall away. Easily could be done in theory in time for a ref within 6 months and then remain would win anyway. We do masses of trade with the EU. It's a fact. Hard brexit puts barriers in the way and the idea that has no impact is fantasy. It is an impediment to both importers and exporters. Drives up the prices of what we buy and reduces the competitiveness of what we sell - a net loss however you spin it.

According to the IFS even the short term outlook after Brexit on the current deal is not at all straightforward. In the medium to longer term it's an open question of how justified is the leaver faith in the UKs ability to take advantage of emerging markets better than the EU group. https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/GB2019-Chapter-3-UK-economic-outlook-in-four-Brexit-scenarios.pdf

 

[BobKowalski]

I think your estimation of our economic potential is rather pessimistic.

I am not assessing economic potential. I am assessing the State's capacity and capability to handle the Brexit process over the coming years. Judging by the last three years and our performance in the processing and negotiating of a Withdrawal Agreement covering only three items I fail to see how this is not obvious. This election is akin to a failing football team seeking to change the manager to address long term and systemic failings. Best you will get is a short term boost which is what happened with Johnson replacing May and led to WA 2.0.

But is instructive how the WA went from the worst deal ever to a great deal for us in the space of a few months notwithstanding that the EU got its three big ticket items and legal protections for GI’s on food and has managed to tie NI into its sphere of influence including state aid provisions as they intersect with the rest of the GB economy. It tells me that we are unable to grasp the underlying reality of our situation and that the final outcome of the WA shows we will be unable to dictate the outcome of the terms of our future relationship.

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Doubt it aren't France a big walnut producer.

Thats fucked the Conservatives plan then ....

 

[Ifwecouldjust.......]

Fishing rights is the biggest con of Brexit. There are 2 things at play - rights and quotas. We sold the rights to UK fishing coastal years ago - they are now mostly in hands of large corporations. Brexit does not bring them back. If we drop out of the quota sthen we are just ignoring the science and who benefits - the big corps who own the licenses and boats.

The idea that hard up fisherman in big woolly jumpers will have a post brexit bonanza is BS. It is a theme that plays on people misconceptions and ignorance about the reality. Fishing is small beans to the UK and what beans it is sit in the hands of big business - not the little man. Summary: when brexiteers bang on about brexit and fish they all BSing you.

What are you saying ........ Captain Birdseye sold his licence for a fat sum of cash ? long ago?

 

[Len Rum]

I think your estimation of our economic potential is rather pessimistic.

He wasn't talking about our 'economic potential', he was referring to the difficulties the UK face in agreeing even the most basic of deals.

 

[BobKowalski]

To be fair to Labour they would do a soft deal and that is very do-able a it suits all sides. Once you start alligning and making concessions then all the big issues fall away. Easily could be done in theory in time for a ref within 6 months and then remain would win anyway.

Except Remain may not win. It’s a possibility that we cannot exclude or ignore. Also if we do remain do we just act as if the last three years hasn’t happened? It’s left its mark on member states and how can they be sure it doesn’t repeat itself again in a few years time? Brexit is a failure of the British State, it’s political and media class. These failings don’t absent themselves if we suddenly remain.

Whether we leave, remain, or as is more likely get stuck in some interminable limbo between the two, we still have to ask ourselves what do we want from our relationship with the EU? What is our place and role in Europe? What is the future of our own Union? Is there any point to the UK as it is currently structured? None of these questons are going away no matter who wins the election.

 

[George Hannah]

I am not assessing economic potential. I am assessing the State's capacity and capability to handle the Brexit process over the coming years. Judging by the last three years and our performance in the processing and negotiating of a Withdrawal Agreement covering only three items I fail to see how this is not obvious. This election is akin to a failing football team seeking to change the manager to address long term and systemic failings. Best you will get is a short term boost which is what happened with Johnson replacing May and led to WA 2.0.

But is instructive how the WA went from the worst deal ever to a great deal for us in the space of a few months notwithstanding that the EU got its three big ticket items and legal protections for GI’s on food and has managed to tie NI into its sphere of influence including state aid provisions as they intersect with the rest of the GB economy. It tells me that we are unable to grasp the underlying reality of our situation and that the final outcome of the WA shows we will be unable to dictate the outcome of the terms of our future relationship.

I thought your debate with @BlueAnorak was about our post Brexit trading performance. That is the sole determinant of its success or failure as an economic project not the inescapable rigours of the political process of extraction or characterisation of the FTA agreement (which will probably be effectively crashing out at the end of of transition.)

He wasn't talking about our 'economic potential', he was referring to the difficulties the UK face in agreeing even the most basic of deals.

See above.

 

[BobKowalski]

I thought your debate with @BlueAnorak was about our post Brexit trading performance. That is the sole determinant of its success or failure as an economic project not the inescapable rigours of the political process of extraction or characterisation of the FTA agreement (which will probably be effectively crashing out at the end of of transition.)
See above.

No. It’s about our capacity and capability to process Brexit and shape our future relationship. ‘Canada plus’ is like ‘Australian points system’ for immigration. They are just words that politicians parrot and people repeat. What does ‘Canada plus’ mean? What does ‘plus’mean? Is ‘plus’ services which FTA’s don’t cover particularly well? So if it’s services that means standardisation and recognition of qualifications in line with Europe. It means allowing people to cross and trade across borders. It will require a legal oversight recognised Europe wide. Guess what. That’s the ECJ. But we don’t want the ECJ so back to square one.

Our ‘friendly’ relationship with Europe will not survive repeated rounds of negotiations with the EU because everything gets binary very quickly and that means trade off and choices that are beyond the U.K. State’s capacity to make without severe pain and political consequences and it is this capacity and capability I am talking about.

Just look at the WA. Johnson said they can whistle for their divorce money. They got £39billion which runs out end of 2020. No British PM can agree to a customs border within our Union. We now have a customs border within our own sovereign territory. Legal protection on food GI’s. A red line for the EU. In the WA. EU state aid rules to apply to NI businesses or any GB business that intersects with NI. In the WA.

You only have to look at the past to gauge how the future will pan out.

 

[Saddleworth2]

No. It’s about our capacity and capability to process Brexit and shape our future relationship. ‘Canada plus’ is like ‘Australian points system’ for immigration. They are just words that politicians parrot and people repeat. What does ‘Canada plus’ mean? What does ‘plus’mean? Is ‘plus’ services which FTA’s don’t cover particularly well? So if it’s services that means standardisation and recognition of qualifications in line with Europe. It means allowing people to cross and trade across borders. It will require a legal oversight recognised Europe wide. Guess what. That’s the ECJ. But we don’t want the ECJ so back to square one.

Our ‘friendly’ relationship with Europe will not survive repeated rounds of negotiations with the EU because everything gets binary very quickly and that means trade off and choices that are beyond the U.K. State’s capacity to make without severe pain and political consequences and it is this capacity and capability I am talking about.

Just look at the WA. Johnson said they can whistle for their divorce money. They got £39billion which runs out end of 2020. No British PM can agree to a customs border within our Union. We now have a customs border within our own sovereign territory. Legal protection on food GI’s. A red line for the EU. In the WA. EU state aid rules to apply to NI businesses or any GB business that intersects with NI. In the WA.

You only have to look at the past to gauge how the future will pan out.

There is no indication that any party has the political competence or that a general election will deliver a clear mandate on anything. The only way out is either a brino which I think is what the Labour deal will look like or revoke A50 and move back to status quo.

 

[George Hannah]

No. It’s about our capacity and capability to process Brexit and shape our future relationship. .....and it is this capacity and capability I am talking about. Just look at the WA. Johnson said they can whistle for their divorce money. They got £39billion which runs out end of 2020. No British PM can agree to a customs border within our Union. We now have a customs border within our own sovereign territory. Legal protection on food GI’s. A red line for the EU. In the WA. EU state aid rules to apply to NI businesses or any GB business that intersects with NI. In the WA. You only have to look at the past to gauge how the future will pan out.

The past offers very many valuable lessons but is not always a reliable guide to the future. The test of your doubts about what you call "our capacity and capability to process Brexit and shape our future relationship" is going to be determined by the extent to which the UK can realise its economic potential better outside the EU than inside it. All the rest of the posturing is irrelevant. The key issue for me though is political, I strongly believe we should have the ability to eject our government at a general election if it doesn't suit. Maybe that can be achieved with less economic damage by countering federalism from inside the EU but I don't think we're going to find out now.

 

[Vic]

It is certainly true that Remain would win if we just reran the original referendum. And there are certainly people who voted Remain who think we had a vote and should abide by it. Some (on here at least) exaggerate the "death of democracy" stuff but does that really stand up? We introduced legislation that said we would have five year parliaments but it turned out our sovereign Parliament could just ignore that. We have legislation that allows people to rerun an election if the MP is a cheat or criminal but it seems one vote, influenced by foreign-funded propaganda is sacrosanct even when all the promised advantages have been abandoned to the reality.