Arsenal (H) - Wed 26th April, 20:00 | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction


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Nah, tonight is crucial. It’s the only time either team can control the other’s result. If we win we reward ourselves with the lifeline of being able to lose and draw 2 of the remaining matches and still have it in our hands. Considering we have Real Madrid to factor in, this lifeline would be incredibly important and boosts our treble chances no end. I hope we’re not seeing this as anything other than a must-win. It’s huge.
I reckon it is even more simplistic than that, though, I agree with you.

If we win, what is left of Arsenal’s belief that they could win the league over us after the last three crushing draws will evaporate.

No matter what Arteta and their players say now or after, a loss is the result that would legitimise them as bottlers. Every mistake and chance conceded in every match for the rest of their (shorter) season will be punctuated by that feeling of “we failed, we are beaten”. It will be devastating to them.

If they win, it will completely reverse that negative velocity they have created over the past few weeks. They’ll believe they’ve gotten their “blip” out of the way and are now destined to finally beat us. Every mistake or chance conceded in every match following with just be an aberration, a funny character building anecdote on the way to greatness.

I am not saying losing tonight will mean we can’t still go on to win the league.

But it will be far less likely, as it will reignite their charge (not just make it less probable from a pure points perspective), when we could have snuffed it out.

And I think Pep and the players know that. They understand how much one big win (or loss) can change the mindset going forward, especially for a group of players trying to win their first PL title.

Ours will be up for this and will be looking to smash them back to their overpriced caramel macchiatos in Highbury, destroying any notion they had that they were going to beat us this season.
 
If we can win this evening then Arsenal have a long time until their next match against Chelsea which will give them lots of time to worry. We could be ahead of them if we beat Fulham away so the Chelsea match would become a must win as would the following one at Newcastle.

If we can beat them tonight then, barring disasters, the league should be ours.
 
Nah, tonight is crucial. It’s the only time either team can control the other’s result. If we win we reward ourselves with the lifeline of being able to lose and draw 2 of the remaining matches and still have it in our hands. Considering we have Real Madrid to factor in, this lifeline would be incredibly important and boosts our treble chances no end. I hope we’re not seeing this as anything other than a must-win. It’s huge.
Screenshot_20230426_150947_BBC Sport.jpg


Not sure about that. Win tonight, and we're on 73 points. With seven games left. If we go W4, D2 and L1 in those remaining 7 games, we'll end up on 87 points. Arsenal will have 5 games left after tonight, so (by my iffy maths) they can get to 90. Unless I'm missing something?
 
I reckon it is even more simplistic than that, though, I agree with you.

If we win, what is left of Arsenal’s belief that they could win the league over us after the last three crushing draws will evaporate.

No matter what Arteta and their players say now or after, a loss is the result that would legitimise them as bottlers. Every mistake and chance conceded in every match for the rest of their (shorter) season will be punctuated by that feeling of “we failed, we are beaten”. It will be devastating to them.

If they win, it will completely reverse that negative velocity they have created over the past few weeks. They’ll believe they’ve gotten their “blip” out of the way and are now destined to finally beat us. Every mistake or chance conceded in every match following with just be an aberration, a funny character building anecdote on the way to greatness.

I am not saying losing tonight will mean we can’t still go on to win the league.

But it will be far less likely, as it will reignite their charge (not just make it less probable from a pure points perspective), when we could have snuffed it out.

And I think Pep and the players know that. They understand how much one big win (or loss) can change the mindset going forward, especially for a group of players trying to win their first PL title.

Ours will be up for this and will be looking to smash them back to their overpriced caramel macchiatos in Highbury, destroying any notion they had that they were going to beat us this season.

Agree with everything except the bottlers part.

The word has been overused and means little now. Before the start of the season, Arsenal weren't favourites for a top 4 place. Now they are top of the league. If anything, they have overachieved this season, no matter what happens next.

I was predicting that they wouldn't win 90 pts when they were on course for 100 pts. It's only natural for such a team to have wobbles and lose a title race to one of the best teams in the world. They have been a bit lucky in some games earlier in the season, now they are less lucky. Normal stuff, especially for a pretty young team like theirs.

I think we are a class above and are likely to win convincingly. You never know, though. Anything can happen. Otherwise, football would be boring.
 
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Not sure about that. Win tonight, and we're on 73 points. With seven games left. If we go W4, D2 and L1 in those remaining 7 games, we'll end up on 87 points. Arsenal will have 5 games left, so (by my iffy maths), they can get to 90. Unless I'm missing something?
Think they mean lose and draw (IE one loss, one draw) in the remaining games.
 
Agree with everything except the bottlers part.

The word has been overused and means little now. Before the start of the season, Arsenal weren't favourites for a top 4 place. Now they are top of the league. If anything, they have overachieved this season, no matter what happens next.

I was predicting that they wouldn't win 90 pts when they were on course for 100 pts. It's only natural for such a team to have wobbles and lose a title race to one of the best teams in the world. They have been a bit lucky in some games earlier in the season, now they are less lucky. Normal stuff, especially for a pretty young team like theirs.

I think we are a class above and are likely to win convincingly. You never know, though. Anything can happen. Otherwise, football would be boring.
I agree with all of that, but that doesn’t contradict the wider narrative being formed by the media and rival fans that they are “bottling” the league.

That exists regardless if it actually makes sense.

And make no mistake, if we beat Arsenal tonight, that narrative will really begin to consume them, specifically because they will have thrown away a strong position.
 
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