Astonishing developments in AI
- Thread starter Chippy_boy
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SkyBlueFlux
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You might as well say let's roll back mechanization of agriculture while we're at it. Let's say hypothetically the UK bans companies using AI. Then we just get outcompeted by every country using it, who are now way more productive and advanced and can do everything for a fraction of the price that we do it. Every UK company collapses and we have no economy left to speak of.
There is really no stopping technological progress, there's no slowing it down, you can regulate it (or try to) but all people will ever achieve with that is some illusion of control. Once the genie is out of the bottle, it is out.
I also don't really agree with the premise. People who used to work in factories didn't do it because they actually liked it or they felt it gave them purpose. I don't sit all day making spreadsheets and powerpoints because it's my higher calling. In fact, I think my job, like many others, is a totally unproductive waste of human potential and there's not a day that goes by where I don't think about what I'd be doing if I didn't have to work. I don't think I'm uncommon in that respect.
The way I see it, we have two choices - we either see AI as a means of democratising wealth in a way humans have never seen before. The country does the same work, creates the same value but for a fraction of the effort, and we find a mechanism for allowing everybody to reap the benefits of that. We allow people to do what they actually want to do with their lives and fulfil their potential, unrestrained by old-fashioned notions of having to work for a living out of some sense of duty for a system that no longer exists.
Or we shun, embrace the Luddite rebellion, try to keep the societal structures we have out of sentimentality, try to block, try to maintain the status quo, let the wealthy cling onto their wealth - and the rest of us will suffer for it.
I am 99% certain we are going down the latter road, because the structures we've built for ourselves makes us powerless to stop it.
Gaz in Zurich
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Hardly any jobs will be left for humans to do. Everyone will be on universal credit and exist in VR. Which half the kids do now anyway
Chippy_boy
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Great post!
Apart from the last bit. A “communist” system is IMO the inevitable outcome. All of the production and wealth creation will continue, but none of the human effort will be needed. So unchecked we’d have like 99% impoverished unemployment and 1% billionaires. That is not sustainable. Society would break down way before that happened. So ultimately the state will have to tax the wealth creators at extremely high rates and pay people perhaps 90% of their normal full pay, to do nothing. Everyone will be free to pursue whatever leisure activities and pastimes they wish. A very few may choose to work, to do the very few jobs that exist, for just a bit more money. But most will be happy not to.
I cannot see any other stable outcome.
BigJoe#1
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Yawwwwwn.... would be too easy for you, an amoebic pleb would be good representation for you.
EDIT: Oh I forgot you have a Deputy PM in the amoebic pleb role.... you know the one who wants the hostages in Gaza released.... guess you're right behind that fool.
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SkyBlueFlux
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Back when I was in university I heard a lot about so-called resource-based economies. Ideas like the Venus Project were all the rage online back then.
In this type of hypothetical economy, people's basic needs are guaranteed as we have established abundance through our use of technology. At that point the idea of money becomes increasingly abstract. Money in our current society is one way of measuring your quality of life - but when everybody's quality of life is extremely high then... who really cares about money? It might still serve as some social marker (like a kind of class system) but it has no bearing on how good your life is. A bit like in some video games, where rich people can spend ridiculous amounts of money on skins or items but it doesn't actually make them better at the game - they just stand out because they're running round in gold armour or whatever.
I always dismissed this as totally unachievable science fiction. I was completely convinced that no matter how good our technology was, there would always be certain people that would never have access to it. There will always be some awful job for the desperate and impoverished to be forced into. AI isn't like any other technology, though because it's not just replacing jobs, it's replacing humans.
I now think an economy like this is totally possible in my lifetime - one where AI just does everything you can imagine for us. Like you, I think it increasingly feels like the only natural equilibrium. But for me whether it happens or not is more a function of how hard some will fight to stop it from happening - and I don't have a lot of faith in the people in power to do the right thing. I think if it does happen, there may be a long road with a lot of suffering before we get there.
hilts
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Cheadle_hulmeBlue
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Why though? I’m starting to think the positives of AI actually don’t merit millions of people being unemployed and completely destabilising society.
How are we going to afford it?
johnny crossan
Well-Known Member
AI found me Mr Bastani who says stay left and everything will be wonderful
Drawing on trends in energy, labour, and production, Bastani argues that these developments could eliminate scarcity and enable a future defined by abundance, reduced working hours, and universal access to luxuries previously reserved for the wealthy. Positioned within the broader tradition of Marxist thought, the book seeks to reframe socialist politics for the 21st century, proposing a radical reorganisation of society based on egalitarian principles and technological progress.
The book argues that human history can be divided into three broad periods, each characterized by substantial changes in technology: prehistory to the dawn of agriculture; agriculture to the Industrial Revolution; and the present period, characterised by the explosive spread of information technology.
Bastani suggests that the prosperity ushered in by technology is inconsistent with contemporary models of capitalism. While capitalism is organised around a logic of scarcity, the technologically-mediated prosperity he predicts is characterised by the absence of scarcity.
Synopsis
Fully Automated Luxury Communism: A Manifesto is a book by Aaron Bastani first published by Verso Books in 2019. It outlines a vision of a post-scarcity, post-capitalist society driven by technological advances such as automation, artificial intelligence, and synthetic biology.Drawing on trends in energy, labour, and production, Bastani argues that these developments could eliminate scarcity and enable a future defined by abundance, reduced working hours, and universal access to luxuries previously reserved for the wealthy. Positioned within the broader tradition of Marxist thought, the book seeks to reframe socialist politics for the 21st century, proposing a radical reorganisation of society based on egalitarian principles and technological progress.
The book argues that human history can be divided into three broad periods, each characterized by substantial changes in technology: prehistory to the dawn of agriculture; agriculture to the Industrial Revolution; and the present period, characterised by the explosive spread of information technology.
Bastani suggests that the prosperity ushered in by technology is inconsistent with contemporary models of capitalism. While capitalism is organised around a logic of scarcity, the technologically-mediated prosperity he predicts is characterised by the absence of scarcity.
Cheadle_hulmeBlue
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Mechanisation of agriculture happened over decades though and there were other job sectors and opportunities for people to move into. AI is happening at warp speed and there aren’t jobs for people to go into, nowhere near the same level.
You call it ‘progress’ - is progress removing the majority of society’s jobs and purpose?How are we going to afford it and how much damage will that cause society - having millions more on the dole. Maybe the entire world needs to think about the consequences not just the UK
We allow people to do what they actually want to do with their lives and fulfil their potential, unrestrained by old-fashioned notions of having to work for a living out of some sense of duty for a system that no longer exists.
In a fantasy land that sounds amazing, but what do millions of people do? I agree a lot of jobs are pointless, but they give people structure and a reason to get up each day. You also say allow people to fulfill their potential - a lot of people’s potential is linked to working ie I want to become an architect or a great artist - why would you if AI can do it instantly and 100 times better.
I was on universal credit for quite a bit a few years back (illness and struggling) and at first I thought great I’ve got all this free time. I’d work on hobbies, that turned into boredom and then into desperation to get any job and actually have something to do. A sense of duty becomes an important part of most humans lives, whether that’s job wise or providing for your family.
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Blumooniac
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Robot Voice Generator (play/download) ― LingoJam
lingojam.com
Yes! It does swear words.
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Regarding search … or googling for 90% of the non Chinese world…
www.theregister.com
Google’s AI answer (top of search results), is significantly reducing click through rates to websites.
So google is effectively shooting itself in the foot, by reducing the value of advertising via google, and also the entire SEO industry is becoming (more of) an illusion.
As AI for facts, eats itself in so many ways, you’re faced with the unpleasant task of sifting through AI content generated from bollox info, hallucinations, poisoning and a complete lack of pristine factually correct data being used to train the future AI, as they are essentially sucking in previous AI content to sustain themselves now. Crap breeds crap.
Edit: it’s ironic that the oft derided ( for the past 24+ years) Wikipedia is a more accurate source of accurate facts than AI. And because it is edited (for better/worse) by humans, with an emphasis on needing citation for any facts (hence easy to spot obvious trolling).
It’s nowhere near perfect, but in a world where fiction can spread faster than ever before in human history, it’s far better than the crap being churned out by/with AI
AI search finds publishers starved of referral traffic
: Turn out the lights, the internet is over
www.theregister.com
Google’s AI answer (top of search results), is significantly reducing click through rates to websites.
So google is effectively shooting itself in the foot, by reducing the value of advertising via google, and also the entire SEO industry is becoming (more of) an illusion.
As AI for facts, eats itself in so many ways, you’re faced with the unpleasant task of sifting through AI content generated from bollox info, hallucinations, poisoning and a complete lack of pristine factually correct data being used to train the future AI, as they are essentially sucking in previous AI content to sustain themselves now. Crap breeds crap.
Edit: it’s ironic that the oft derided ( for the past 24+ years) Wikipedia is a more accurate source of accurate facts than AI. And because it is edited (for better/worse) by humans, with an emphasis on needing citation for any facts (hence easy to spot obvious trolling).
It’s nowhere near perfect, but in a world where fiction can spread faster than ever before in human history, it’s far better than the crap being churned out by/with AI
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meltonblue
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That’s not a fact to be fair.
unicorn
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That's a superb analysis. Slowing AI so people still do pointless jobs (often jobs they hate) is madness. Plenty of work AI won't ever completely replace, looking after people like my dad in dementia care homes. for example.
I'm With Stupid
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Aye, I was trying to remember a game from City earlier where we got a goal disallowed but there was some confusion, because everyone including the commentators thought the referee had given it and then suddenly when it went to VAR and it wasn't a 'clear and obvious' handball, it suddenly emerged that the referee had 'actually' blown for a handball instead of a goal.Regarding search … or googling for 90% of the non Chinese world…
AI search finds publishers starved of referral traffic
: Turn out the lights, the internet is over
Google’s AI answer (top of search results), is significantly reducing click through rates to websites.
So google is effectively shooting itself in the foot, by reducing the value of advertising via google, and also the entire SEO industry is becoming (more of) an illusion.
As AI for facts, eats itself in so many ways, you’re faced with the unpleasant task of sifting through AI content generated from bollox info, hallucinations, poisoning and a complete lack of pristine factually correct data being used to train the future AI, as they are essentially sucking in previous AI content to sustain themselves now. Crap breeds crap.
Anyway, I described that to ChatGPT with the phrase 'earlier in the season.' It's first attempt was a 3-3 draw with Spurs from 2023. It's second attempt was a women's game. It's third attempt was that foul on Alisson, again from 2023. And its final attempt was a detailed account of a game against Chelsea where we had a goal disallowed for a foul on Kepa by Liam Delap. When I asked it what the score was so I could look it up, it confessed that it'd just made up a game.
For the record, it was the 1-0 win over Spurs. I think.
A simple example, indeed. 3 wrong answers and then admitting it made it up.
It’s almost as though the snake oil salesman of the old west have found a new ‘shiney shiney’ with which to fleece people with.
I have had conversations in the past week with an assortment of disparate people about the lack of critical thinking and analysis in many - AI just adds to this ‘dumbing down’ of the norm.
Chippy_boy
Well-Known Member
How old are you?
I’m 63 and I am pretty sure I won’t see it in my lifetime. Not because the technology won’t be available - I am sure it will be. But because of 2 things, both somewhat related:
First, we need global alignment. Image country/economy A can reduce its costs of goods and services by replacing all the human labour with AI and robots, putting millions out of work and keeping them on the dole. Country B on the other hand also uses AI to replace everyone but taxes all its businesses at say 90% so it can provide a very high level of universal basic income. Immediately, B’s goods and services would be totally uncompetitive with that of A and its economy would soon go down the pan. So doing what B is doing cannot be done unilaterally, it needs global alignment, which we are nowhere near having.
Second, I don’t see us getting global alignment until we’ve been through some pain. I think we have to go through sharply rising unemployment, political and finally civil unrest, perhaps even civil war, before we realise that keeping say 30%, 40%, 50% of the population unemployed and broke, whilst everyone else is having a ball, cannot work. It’s going to take decades to see this unfold I think.
I’m optimistic that it will be nirvana in 100 years, but I expect a rough ride along the way. Unless AI just kills everyone way before then, btw. Which I reckon is pretty much 50-50 odds at this point. And that’s assuming we pour massive resources in to prevent it, which we’re not doing. Carry on as we are and we are in deep trouble.
Chippy_boy
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Just a matter of time, mate. AI will replace all intellectual work pretty soon, but robotics is currently a bit behind. But it will catch up fast. We’ve only just started powering robots with large neural nets and initially these were not fast enough to produce robots with fast reflexes and fantastic manual dexterity. But speed up the processing and that comes naturally. The rate of increase of processing power is SO rapid that are now already seeing robots that can run, not walk. In a decade we’ll have perhaps 1m times more powerful hardware and robots will be able to e.g. beat Alcaraz at tennis. It will not be decades before they are working in care homes.