I couldn't see a gambling thread so thought I'd just post here. Please move delete if inappropriate.
I was just checking citys odds for CL.
In Betfair City are 4.3 to win 4.4 lay. This works out at about 29.4% return for us not to win the CL.
For Madrid game we have implied odds of about 85% to qualify.
My probabilities of each subsequent game.
Juventus. We would be slight favourites so 55%
Bayern/ Barca 50% chance of qualifying
Final. If we beat those teams we would have to be about 55% chance os success. (But if Atletico 45%)
So chance of success IMO is 0.85x0.55x0.5x0.55= 12.8%
I think quite a lot of value there and could be nice way to soften the loss if we don't win it.
where this bet falls downs is you are vastly overestimating the City price in each game.
I am replying to this post after tonights results so no after timing comments are allowed.
You have the first price spot on 0.85(easy to get because you refer to odds on the match)
Biggest glaring error is you forgot to factor in the chance of playing Lyon instead of Juve.( again after tonight's results)
Bayern Barca you are maybe right, but I think we would be 50% bayern and 65% Barco. so that would bring us to 58%
And if we meet Athletico in the final we would undoubtedly be at least 63%
so on my figs that is
0.85 tonight's match
0.75 Lyon
0.58 semi
0.63 win final
Now that works out to 3/1
which is just about the betfair price you quoted 4.35
the 3/10 difference would be the chance you didn't take in account for lyon beating juve.
It just shows how in multiplying multi scenarios how one tiny miscalculation can massively skew the end result.
As aside note the way you are thinking, years ago you would have won untold on betfair, and I am talking maybe 15 years ago, each tennis tournament you could lay Fed to win the tournament.
Every match bet him to win(to the potential loss) when he won the tournament you would win a little bit extra than you lost on the original loss, if he got beat you would finish level.
Sadly those days are long gone.
