Borussia Dortmund (A) - Tue 25th Oct, 20:00 | Pre-Match Thread

Match Result Prediction


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The only way goal difference comes into it is if we lose 2-1 tomorrow.

If they beat us 1-0 or by 2 or more goals, and we both finish on the same points, they top the group.

They decide the group based on:

1 - points
2 - head to head (including away goals rule)
3 - GD
I think it's without away goals rule, so ANY 1-goal defeat would mean a square result and the following criteria would have to be checked:


Current original UEFA CL rules from August 2022:
https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regula...icle-17-Equality-of-points-group-stage-Online

Article 17 Equality of points – group stage:​

17.01
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied in the order given to determine their rankings:
  1. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  2. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
  3. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  4. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to k) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;
  5. superior goal difference in all group matches;
  6. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
  7. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
  8. higher number of wins in all group matches;
  9. higher number of away wins in all group matches;
  10. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
  11. higher club coefficient (see Annex D).

In the actual club coefficient City is ranked #1, Dortmund #14:
https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2023


Bottom line:
City win or draw -> City win the group.
BvB win by more than 1 goal -> City would need more points from the 6th matchday than BvB to win the group.
City lose by 1 goal -> criteria 5.) downwards will decide group winner.
 
I think it's without away goals rule, so ANY 1-goal defeat would mean a square result and the following criteria would have to be checked:


Current original UEFA CL rules from August 2022:
https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regula...icle-17-Equality-of-points-group-stage-Online

Article 17 Equality of points – group stage:​

17.01
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied in the order given to determine their rankings:
  1. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  2. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
  3. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  4. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to k) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;
  5. superior goal difference in all group matches;
  6. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
  7. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
  8. higher number of wins in all group matches;
  9. higher number of away wins in all group matches;
  10. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
  11. higher club coefficient (see Annex D).

In the actual club coefficient City is ranked #1, Dortmund #14:
https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2023


Bottom line:
City win or draw -> City win the group.
BvB win by more than 1 goal -> City would need more points from the 6th matchday than BvB to win the group.
City lose by 1 goal -> criteria 5.) downwards will decide group winner.
So, no bonus game in USA or penalty shoot out? WORST EUROPEAN SUPER LEAGUE EVER
 
I think it's without away goals rule, so ANY 1-goal defeat would mean a square result and the following criteria would have to be checked:


Current original UEFA CL rules from August 2022:
https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regula...icle-17-Equality-of-points-group-stage-Online

Article 17 Equality of points – group stage:​

17.01
If two or more teams are equal on points on completion of the group matches, the following criteria are applied in the order given to determine their rankings:
  1. higher number of points obtained in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  2. superior goal difference from the group matches played among the teams in question;
  3. higher number of goals scored in the group matches played among the teams in question;
  4. if, after having applied criteria a) to c), teams still have an equal ranking, criteria a) to c) are reapplied exclusively to the matches between the remaining teams to determine their final rankings. If this procedure does not lead to a decision, criteria e) to k) apply in the order given to the two or more teams still equal;
  5. superior goal difference in all group matches;
  6. higher number of goals scored in all group matches;
  7. higher number of away goals scored in all group matches;
  8. higher number of wins in all group matches;
  9. higher number of away wins in all group matches;
  10. lower disciplinary points total based only on yellow and red cards received by players and team officials in all group matches (red card = 3 points, yellow card = 1 point, expulsion for two yellow cards in one match = 3 points);
  11. higher club coefficient (see Annex D).

In the actual club coefficient City is ranked #1, Dortmund #14:
https://www.uefa.com/nationalassociations/uefarankings/club/#/yr/2023


Bottom line:
City win or draw -> City win the group.
BvB win by more than 1 goal -> City would need more points from the 6th matchday than BvB to win the group.
City lose by 1 goal -> criteria 5.) downwards will decide group winner.
Thanks for that. So, realistically, as long as we don't lose by more than 1 goal then we could still win the group with a win against Sevilla if we lose tomorrow (barring a major change in relative GD like Dortmund beating Copenhagen 6-0 in their last match).
 
Thanks for that. So, realistically, as long as we don't lose by more than 1 goal then we could still win the group with a win against Sevilla if we lose tomorrow (barring a major change in relative GD like Dortmund beating Copenhagen 6-0 in their last match).
Copenhagen don’t lose at home in the CL. It’s about 7 years since they last lost there. Granted they don’t always qualify, but Dortmund may not even win in Denmark.
 
Copenhagen don’t lose at home in the CL. It’s about 7 years since they last lost there. Granted they don’t always qualify, but Dortmund may not even win in Denmark.
Yesterday Dortmund ultra fan groups announced not to go to Kopenhagen. Only personalized tickets are on offer, no go for ultras.

Reason for heavy fan clashes around the match in Dortmund is fan friendship between BvB and Brondby, FC Kopenhagen's local rival.
 
They're all used though, what happens if they're level? Serie A and La Liga have been using H2H including away goals for a similar period and it's worked perfectly as well.
I do prefer H2H in the CL and GD in the league. The league is a measure of your quality over a whole season against 19 other teams, so the results of two games shouldn't be a priority. But there are only six games against three teams in the CL, so those H2H games should be given more weight.
 
There will be some cautious rotation, but I think City need to avoid the sort of brain fog that nearly gave Brighton the lead on Saturday, Ederson made up for it with the assist but that was shockingly complacent on his part, and he also had a laps in the second Copenhagen game, which could have led to a defeat. I would quite like to see Ortega given a start. A draw will do.
 
Official: #ManCity's 21-man travelling squad vs Borussia Dortmund. Ederson, Carson, Ortega Moreno; Lewis, Cancelo, Akanji, Stones, Dias, Ake, Laporte, Wilson-Esbrand; Rodri, Gundogan, De Bruyne, Bernardo; Palmer, Mahrez, Alvarez, Haaland, Grealish, Foden
 
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