Budget 2024

[Brewster's millions]

The problem, as I see it, is the markets have seen an increase of over £140bn in borrowing this Parliament and huge tax rises but with lower growth forecasted compared to before the budget. Now Labour will argue that the growth predictions are wrong but that’s a worry. There are two key concerns here, firstly how much Reeves has front loaded public spending for the first 2 years with austerity in all but name for the remaining 2 years before the next GE - that’s not going to promote growth. More money doesn’t mean more output, we’ve all seen that the NHS has a 17% increase in funding, increases in staffing yet only a 1% increase in output. This is why talk of reform become practical actions is central to this. Secondly how much of this becomes structural leading to more tax rises / increased borrowing without returns on growth - the main problem in her in-tray is she needs to agree multi year department settlements next spring before any of the reform improvements have manifested themselves - it’s a shot in the dark at that point and markets are concerned there isn’t a plan, albeit they can see the making of one. Labour have pinned their flag to the growth mast, so far it doesn’t look encouraging but time will tell.

If this goes tits up then the tories are going to take a flame thrower to this public spending spree. They’ll get blamed for austerity and the whole circus goes again. Anyway fingers crossed is does work - god knows we need it.

Totally agree about the front-loading of the expenditure, and the strong likelihood that what is being painted as an exceptional increase in departmental spending limits over the next two years simply becomes the norm, requiring more borrowing and tax increases further out. If you look at the real terms RDEL figures, they have increases in excess of 4% for this year and 3% for next, and then just over 1% per annum thereafter, which you would have to say is going to be hard to stick to as an election approaches. And of course the lack of any meaningful growth upgrade from the OBR just compounds the issue, as you say.

A couple of other figures stand out. The first one is how the increase in total government spending is being split between departmental spending and investment; by the end of the forecast horizon, investment only receives 30% of the overall rise in spending, which again plays into this concern about a structural rise in departmental spending and borrowing.

The other is simply the size of the increase in gilt supply penciled-in for next year, especially when you take into account the sale of gilts from the APF and the size of redemptions. Gross issuance including the APF sales is running at about 14% of GDP per annum this year and next. Big numbers.

 

[metalblue]

We can always sneak into the EU Single Market and the OBR’s ‘15% drag on economic growth’ will cease to be a thing.

Never too late to own and correct our mistakes.

Lol, well done for getting the “yeah, but what about Brexit” in there.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Yeah, the farmers are threatening to shut London down for a day, but there’s no mention of ambulances not getting through either.

the same farmers who 6 short years ago we in an 87% majority to persuade their kids NOT to follow them onto the far. A cynic would say this confected ire simply is about a tax dodge being taken away from some people

What's next? Options for farmers' children leaving school - Farmers Weekly

A new year brings new beginnings - and for school leavers, this means considering what will happen after exams are finally over. What’s the best choice -

www.fwi.co.uk

 

[kaz7]

I really think they should not taxing gp surgeries and hospices, they shouldnt be included , if they want people to be looked after adding to their tax burden is cruel and stupid

Rethink please

 

[blueparrot]

the same farmers who 6 short years ago we in an 87% majority to persuade their kids NOT to follow them onto the far. A cynic would say this confected ire simply is about a tax dodge being taken away from some people

What's next? Options for farmers' children leaving school - Farmers Weekly

A new year brings new beginnings - and for school leavers, this means considering what will happen after exams are finally over. What’s the best choice -

www.fwi.co.uk

A lot a rough guess about 10 of farmers children were in my sons and daughters years at school, can only think of 2 that have gone into farming. Not sure which are which were which but most of those 10 were from tenant farm families. The farm s they lived on owned buy Dukes.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

the same farmers who 6 short years ago we in an 87% majority to persuade their kids NOT to follow them onto the far. A cynic would say this confected ire simply is about a tax dodge being taken away from some people

What's next? Options for farmers' children leaving school - Farmers Weekly

A new year brings new beginnings - and for school leavers, this means considering what will happen after exams are finally over. What’s the best choice -

www.fwi.co.uk

Yeah, from what I’ve seen, it’s a relatively low percentage of farm estates that would be adversely affected by the change too.

Next up, distribution centre taxes for multi-national companies.

 

[Brewster's millions]

the same farmers who 6 short years ago we in an 87% majority to persuade their kids NOT to follow them onto the far. A cynic would say this confected ire simply is about a tax dodge being taken away from some people

What's next? Options for farmers' children leaving school - Farmers Weekly

A new year brings new beginnings - and for school leavers, this means considering what will happen after exams are finally over. What’s the best choice -

www.fwi.co.uk

You might want to actually read the article, in particular the question posed which drew the 87% response. Read it carefully.

The question is what do you want your children to do before they return to work on the farm. Do something else for a bit, or just start working on the farm straight from school.

It’s not do you want your children to move away from farming altogether. The assumption is that the children will end up working on the farm, underlining the importance of the IHT issue.

 

[ChicagoBlue]

I really think they should not taxing gp surgeries and hospices, they shouldnt be included , if they want people to be looked after adding to their tax burden is cruel and stupix

Rethink please

Kaz, I understand your concerns, which are meaningful to you, but if everyone’s “pet” sector escapes taxing, where do you get the money?

I won’t give the “running out of other people’s money” quote, but it smacks of that.

Having lived the first third of my life in Jolly Old, and the next two-thirds in Murica, I’ve seen both ends of the spectrum on taxation and services.

My observation is that the older population is seeing an erosion in services they were used to seeing, but which are not what they once were, and a younger demographic complaining about the tax burden for services they’ll never use, don’t want, or that are a pale imitation of what they grew up with!

Quandary.

The solution, of course, is to hone in on the services THE POPULATION NEEDS and fund them, while privatizing other peripheral services that should be funded by user fees. The problem with that, of course, is that something people took for granted as “free,” even though it was never free, but was being paid for by others, suddenly becomes one’s sole responsibility! Finding what’s on one list and what’s on the other is a social problem that, in a democracy, becomes a problem, because every likes free candy!

Given the erosion of the British economy, and its slow pace of change to the new realities, one expects considerably more pain and struggle. However, find me the righteous cause that doesn’t require pain and struggle!

Again, though, one person’s “righteous cause” is another person’s “What the fuck are they messing with now?”

BRITAIN and the BRITISH PROPLE have to decide what they want the Govt (EVERYONE) to pay for and what they’re willing to pay for on an individual basis, based on the fact that very few people use or need that service, or that it SHOULD be one’s personal responsibility. Labour 2024 believe they got a mandate for change and are going to try it their way, and that change will create pain points.

Currently, politicians run on “I’m going to lower YOUR taxes, but raise the quantity and quality of the services YOU need!” Unless you elect a magician who can create cost free money from out of thin air, good luck with that!

Brits, on the whole, have come to expect something for nothing…or at least that someone else is going to pay for it. They hate the rich, and want them soaked, but fail to understand the reason most of them got rich was by taking a risk, employing others, and creating something of worth. Most today are regular people who made good, not the Lord of the manor!

Again, quandary.

Good luck to us all.

 

[bluethrunthru]

You might want to actually read the article, in particular the question posed which drew the 87% response. Read it carefully.

The question is what do you want your children to do before they return to work on the farm. Do something else for a bit, or just start working on the farm straight from school.

It’s not do you want your children to move away from farming altogether. The assumption is that the children will end up working on the farm, underlining the importance of the IHT issue.

Farming is being used like fishing was by the Reform lot - it will be dropped once it has served a purpose for them indeed I am sure Tice and Lowe are already casting an eye around suitable acquisitions at knock down prices as presumably there is a massive rush to sell farms before the changes come in ..............

 

[kaz7]

Kaz, I understand your concerns, which are meaningful to you, but if everyone’s “pet” sector escapes taxing, where do you get the money?

I won’t give the “running out of other people’s money” quote, but it smacks of that.

Having lived the first third of my life in Jolly Old, and the next two-thirds in Murica, I’ve seen both ends of the spectrum on taxation and services.

My observation is that the older population is seeing an erosion in services they were used to seeing, but which are not what they once were, and a younger demographic complaining about the tax burden for services they’ll never use, don’t want, or that are a pale imitation of what they grew up with!

Quandary.

The solution, of course, is to hone in on the services THE POPULATION NEEDS and fund them, while privatizing other peripheral services that should be funded by user fees. The problem with that, of course, is that something people took for granted as “free,” even though it was never free, but was being paid for by others, suddenly becomes one’s sole responsibility! Finding what’s on one list and what’s on the other is a social problem that, in a democracy, becomes a problem, because every likes free candy!

Given the erosion of the British economy, and its slow pace of change to the new realities, one expects considerably more pain and struggle. However, find me the righteous cause that doesn’t require pain and struggle!

Again, though, one person’s “righteous cause” is another person’s “What the fuck are they messing with now?”

BRITAIN and the BRITISH PROPLE have to decide what they want the Govt (EVERYONE) to pay for and what they’re willing to pay for on an individual basis, based on the fact that very few people use or need that service, or that it SHOULD be one’s personal responsibility. Labour 2024 believe they got a mandate for change and are going to try it their way, and that change will create pain points.

Currently, politicians run on “I’m going to lower YOUR taxes, but raise the quantity and quality of the services YOU need!” Unless you elect a magician who can create cost free money from out of thin air, good luck with that!

Brits, on the whole, have come to expect something for nothing…or at least that someone else is going to pay for it. They hate the rich, and want them soaked, but fail to understand the reason most of them got rich was by taking a risk, employing others, and creating something of worth. Most today are regular people who made good, not the Lord of the manor!

Again, quandary.

Good luck to us all.

Appreciate the reply

Hospices are reliant on donations and they dont have enough staff to give proper end of life care . To put an added burden on them is not a great move

There is a shortage of gp due to brexit and covid , the gov wan to get a million more appts a week but if you hike their taxes they wont take on these much needed staff , it doesnt make sense . The gov cant say they want the nhs and care homes to be improved then clobber them with this tax rise , i meant that and not that they shouldnt pay tax at all