Budget 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter ganganvince
  • Start date Start date
hampshireblue said:
I guess because there was a post yesterday, suggesting the markets weren't taking the budget well regarding gilt yields and exchange rates. u
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Markets haven’t taken the Budget well, and what we’ve seen is a direct response to the new borrowing profile outlined by Reeves, as well as concerns around how businesses will react to a very large tax squeeze and a step up in interest rates.

The fact that Starmer has felt the need to write in the FT today - the article itself has obviously been cobbled together at short notice - only highlights the government’s concerns around the market fallout.
 
Ifwecouldjust....... said:
YCMIU ......even If you really really tried


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I can see how someone with 60 buy-to-let properties plus works pensions is completely fucked, what with the loss of the £300 heating allowance as well.

Maybe we can organise a bucket collection for this unfortunate pair at the next home match.
 
Brewster's millions said:
Markets haven’t taken the Budget well, and what we’ve seen is a direct response to the new borrowing profile outlined by Reeves, as well as concerns around how businesses will react to a very large tax squeeze and a step up in interest rates.

The fact that Starmer has felt the need to write in the FT today - the article itself has obviously been cobbled together at short notice - only highlights the government’s concerns around the market fallout.
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Considering the size of the tax rises, and borrowing projections, the reaction has been fairly muted.

Even the fabled 10 year gilts are lower than they were for most of last Summer, while the FTSE is up since the budget. Both changes are not especially dramatic, and I suspect Reeves and Starmer are probably reasonably happy to have got through that budget without any major upheaval so far.
 
Brewster's millions said:
Markets haven’t taken the Budget well, and what we’ve seen is a direct response to the new borrowing profile outlined by Reeves, as well as concerns around how businesses will react to a very large tax squeeze and a step up in interest rates.

The fact that Starmer has felt the need to write in the FT today - the article itself has obviously been cobbled together at short notice - only highlights the government’s concerns around the market fallout.
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Do you actually believe the rubbish you post? Markets are down 0.83% in the last week which is well within normal variations any week. The budget was already pretty much baked in and accepted.

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Brewster's millions said:
It's an interest rate / gilt yield story, not an exchange rate story.

The pound recovered against the dollar today because the US employment data were far worse than expected, which caused the spike in the chart you posted.

The impact on gilt yields and expectations around Bank Rate has persisted; this is the story given the risk of a persistently higher government borrowing costs, which require further tax increases and / or borrowing.
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It's just the way the financial markets. Reeves' budget has not had a devastating impact on Britain's finances. It's wishful thinking (a bit weird) to think otherwise.

Nit quite sure the US employment figures were a massive surprise following the hurricane they have just dealt with. It hardly led to a significant change in outlook.
 
bluenova said:
The Telegraph has become almost indistinguishable from the Daily Mash.

I saw this shared on X, and the first comment suggested they cut down on take out coffee and avocado on toast :)
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They should probably cut down on gobbling up property after property like life is a monopoly board. People like this are the reason the housing market is impermeable for most young people.
 
west didsblue said:
Do you actually believe the rubbish you post? Markets are down 0.83% in the last week which is well within normal variations any week. The budget was already pretty much baked in and accepted.

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Why are you talking about equities when the pertinent issue is how gilt yields have reacted to the higher issuance outlook, and how the higher borrowing costs feed back into the OBR’s projections?

You advertise your ignorance and lack of knowledge with every post.
 
Manc in London said:
It's just the way the financial markets. Reeves' budget has not had a devastating impact on Britain's finances. It's wishful thinking (a bit weird) to think otherwise.

Nit quite sure the US employment figures were a massive surprise following the hurricane they have just dealt with. It hardly led to a significant change in outlook.
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No one is suggesting that the Budget has had a devastating impact on the fiscal position. Rather that the borrowing projections have increased by more than expected, with the market reacting in turn. The fact the OBR only expected the Budget to boost gilt yields by 25bp is an issue given that we’ve already seen an increase of that scale.

Unfortunately acknowledging that market reaction, which is undeniable and has led Starmer to write an article in the FT today reiterating his intention to push through reforms across public services, is simply a step too far for many on here.

The payrolls figures were 100k below expectations by the way, so they were a surprise and they did move the dollar.
 
Brewster's millions said:
Why are you talking about equities when the pertinent issue is how gilt yields have reacted to the higher issuance outlook, and how the higher borrowing costs feed back into the OBR’s projections?

You advertise your ignorance and lack of knowledge with every post.
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Let’s see what gilt yields are in a month or two when things settle down. Also the dollar exchange rate has gone from $1.30 to $1.29. Hardly earth shattering.
 
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