This has been covered on other threads by the odds are that if City make the SF (or maybe even the QF) they should be in Pot 2.
There are 13 clubs ahead of City in the rankings who do not look likely to make the CL next season:
Inter (11 points adrift)
Roma (10)
Fiorentina (17)
Athletico (4)
Sevilla (4)
Villareal (12)
Werder Bremen (8)
Hamburg (17)
Lyon (11)
Marseilles (8)
Sporting (9)
Liverpool (9)
Chelsea (3) or Arsenal
That would put City in the top 18 clubs in the CL.
So City need to overtake two clubs in the rankings to make Pot 2 assuming that the league positions remain as they are. Braga and Dinamo Kiev are within two points of City and Spurs are within five points.
Beat Sporting home and away gives 5 points.