And yet with near 75% of the adult population vaccinated, the roads, shops, businesses etc, all seem to be busy… unless you’re saying that that’s just the other 25% out and about…
The figures of icu, intubation and death for anyone with covid all show that it’s a very high disproportionate amount of that 25% that follow that path. It’s not hard maths to work out.
Imagine 1000 people, 75% vaxxed, which is the current rate in uk adult population.
if 1000 people went to hospital with covid and the vaccine has no effect, 75% of them would be vaxxed.
If the vaccine has only a 10% effect, then you’d expect 750*9/10 =675 vaxx people in hospital + (always) 250 unvaxxed.
So 675 of 925 = 72% of those in hospital are vaxxed if vaccine is 10% effective.
20% effective = 70% of those in hospital
50% effective = 60% of those in hospital
80% effective = 37.5% of those in hospital
if we take the same scenario of 1000 people, 90% vaccinated, so only 100 are unvaxxed, which could be argued is actually where we are at now in the adult population.
10% effective = 90% of those in hospital
50% effective = 82% of those in hospital
80% effective = 64% of those in hospital
90% effective = 47% of those in hospital
95% effective = 31% of those in hospital
so , we are probably in the range of the vaccine being 80%~95% effective in cutting hospitalisations versus unvaxxed, based on actual figures for the (40/60 approx) proportion of people presenting at hospital for covid.
Note, this is hospitalisations, not for the serious stuff leading to deaths. Which as mentioned are even higher percentages for unvaxxed.
Current Figures from the US show an even clearer and higher disproportionate amount.