If we go there without two DMs, we will get picked apart IN FRONT OF THE BACK FOUR.
The other place they pick teams apart is with the blind side overload. Their two AMs make cross runs, with the right side attacker moving from right to left, dragging the Left Back inside with him, opening up the entire right side of the danger area around the 18 yard box…and the same thing on the other side. This is how Reese James & Alonso get so many chances.
Their entire game is to overload the back 4 by giving them 5 players to mark (LB, RAM, CF, LAM, RB), with their two “DMs” patrolling the 25-30 yard line for anything that comes back.
Meanwhile their Back 3 have the extra man (or two) to blunt any long ball designed to relieve the pressure they’re putting on the opposition…and it gets fed right back into the DMs to recycle.
For me, the reason City haven’t dint well against them is because Tuchel plays a tweaked Pep formation, with less rotational motion on the field. That gives them strong “boxes” of players all over the field to douse any pressure from the opposition and take back the ball.
When they do lose the ball, if they don’t get it back quickly, they collapse back into a 5-4-1 defensive shell.
In Pep’s system, our 2nd & 3rd attackers (often the RM & LM rather than the wide players in our system) are very rarely seen as defenders when things break down, and thus we rely on our 4-1 to initially defend the box. That’s just not enough people to cover the attacking overloads Chelsea try to impose on their opposition.
I see most people have our midfield as Rodri/Ferna as a DM and then 2 of KDB/Gundo/Bernardo/Foden as our other two midfielders, with 3 of Mahrez/Sterling/Torres/Jesus/Grealish as our attackers.
When losing the ball, does anyone really see 3 or 4 of those midfielders and attackers as putting in a (real) defensive shift?
In short, I believe Chelsea’s formation, and the personnel they employ in it, don’t allow teams to actually attack Chelsea’s biggest weakness, which is their defence!
Their wing backs supplementing their 2 DMs and 2 AMs, plus Lukaku as their striker, gives them a solidity that few teams can resist, or impose on Chelsea with their own personnel.
We need to pin back their FBs, and create one on ones in their back five whenever possible. If we can do that, while containing their fast break, we can win (if we take our chances).
If we cannot use a Back 4 + 1 DM to blunt their 5 man attack, with our other 2 midfielders putting in a defensive shift, we could get overrun in the middle of the park and our final third.
Who plays and our system is going to be interesting.
However, of more importance was seeing how (at Spurs) Tuchel turned his 5-2-2-1 into a 5-3-2 (with one of the 3, in this case Kante, playing the role of the second AM going forward) at half time. In short order, they grabbed hold of the midfield, overrunning and overpowering Spurs.
Watching him ruthlessly institute a Plan B (5-3-1-1) at HT, because his 5-2-2-1 wasn’t imposing itself on Spurs, was both interesting and scary in its effectiveness.
We will have to play significantly better than we did against Soton if we are going to get anything (including a draw) out of them.
Fingers and toes crossed we can and do.
Coming away from there with only 10 points from 18, with PSG (A) in the CL a few days later and Liverpool (A) the following weekend could blow up our PL early on if it turns into 10 from 21 points and a CL loss against a team we beat twice last season.
