City launch legal action against the Premier League

jacko74 said:
I still don't really understand how it can even work in the first place as a business model, without the much bigger clubs identifying and snatching up these hidden gem players before the likes of Brighton or Brentford even get chance.

I suppose it is, as you say, just down to luck.. I imagine all small clubs try to identify hidden gems but occasionally the stars align for certain clubs and they manage to have a run of unearthing an exceptional number of just such players.
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Sometimes players aren’t the title contender players until they have more experience. Clubs will sell to BHA with sell ons, players will go knowing they’ll let them go.
 
jacko74 said:
I still don't really understand how it can even work in the first place as a business model, without the much bigger clubs identifying and snatching up these hidden gem players before the likes of Brighton or Brentford even get chance.

I suppose it is, as you say, just down to luck.. I imagine all small clubs try to identify hidden gems but occasionally the stars align for certain clubs and they manage to have a run of unearthing an exceptional number of just such players.
Click to expand...
The thing is, Brighton are content not to be in the reckoning for the trophies, so they can afford to take a chance on the players who are on everyone's radar but, as we see every season, the title contenders simply can't afford to risk playing in their first teams. My view is that it's a precarious model exemplified by Southampton.
 
Because smaller clubs can take a risk as they aren't charged as much and less is expected of a player. If it works they sell them on for profit and everyone says its the right way to run a club (eg. Brighton, Southampton, Bolton) when it doesn't they go down (eg Southampton, Bolton)
 
jacko74 said:
I still don't really understand how it can even work in the first place as a business model, without the much bigger clubs identifying and snatching up these hidden gem players before the likes of Brighton or Brentford even get chance.

I suppose it is, as you say, just down to luck.. I imagine all small clubs try to identify hidden gems but occasionally the stars align for certain clubs and they manage to have a run of unearthing an exceptional number of just such players.
Click to expand...
The truth lies somewhere in between. It’s not all luck. Of course you have to have a great scouting network and buy the right players at the right time. No club has managed to do it consistently over 10 plus years. Even clubs with famed academies, including so called European royalty have barren spells. What Brighton have done is great, but no different to Leicester, Southampton, Bolton etc and even Crewe to some extent. I know I’m mixing astute transfers with academies there but the point is the same. I’ve not seen it work long term unless it’s mixed with serious cash.
 
jacko74 said:
Can you explain in simpleton terms just how they can consistently find good players on the cheap, players that much bigger clubs with huge scouting networks and youth systems seem to have overlooked?
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Put it this way, there margin for error is much larger than ours, they can buy multiple players for cheap who have the potential to be good and offer them virtually guaranteed pl football and for every caicedo etc there will be 10 that dont pan out but for them that gamble is worth it, for us its not a viable proposition due to the standard of our team.
 
jacko74 said:
I still don't really understand how it can even work in the first place as a business model, without the much bigger clubs identifying and snatching up these hidden gem players before the likes of Brighton or Brentford even get chance.

I suppose it is, as you say, just down to luck.. I imagine all small clubs try to identify hidden gems but occasionally the stars align for certain clubs and they manage to have a run of unearthing an exceptional number of just such players.
Click to expand...
Or unregulated clubs like Chelski prepared to pay inflated fees.
 
jacko74 said:
Can you explain in simpleton terms just how they can consistently find good players on the cheap, players that much bigger clubs with huge scouting networks and youth systems seem to have overlooked?
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Yes I will try as I can see that some posters are equally confused or putting it down to luck.

The short answer is watch the film Moneyball.

The longer answer is that Benham and Bloom own companies that specialise in taking money off bookmakers using primarily the Asian Market. They do this by knowing the likely outcome of football games better than the bookmakers. Their companies are called Starlizard (Brighton and Bloom) and Smartodds (Brentford and Benham). Both owners have a lot in common and used to work with each other. Both are Mathematical geniuses and are billionaires because of it. Both bought the clubs they support.

More importantly both owners have used their companies to come up with algorithms to find undervalued players from all over the World. Each company probably has around 100 people working for them (I’m guessing as they are secretive organisations) That dwarfs every other data analytics departments in every other club in the World and their algorithms are more accurate than anyone else’s.

They work differently from other clubs. As an example Brentford have no Academy as richer clubs were just nicking their players. The process is to find undervalued players by looking at Underlying statistics and plugging them into their mathematical models. They buy them but then must sell them at a profit. This profit goes to buy better players and so on and so on.

I’ve seen posters compare them to Southampton and say they have no ambition. They’re nothing like Southampton who had a very good Academy.

Brighton and Brentford want to sell their best players they just want to sell them at huge profits. For every player and, for that matter, every member of staff (including the Manager) they have three ready made replacements should they need them. I wonder if that includes tea ladies? Brentford famously sacked a Manger who appeared to be doing well because they knew, using underlying statistics, that the Manager had been lucky and knew that could not continue. The fans went mad but Benham was correct.

Neither club can compete financially with clubs like City so they have to find a different way. If they try to copy City they will lose. Over the years just about every club now has a data department doing what Brighton and Brentford do just not as well understandably.

The key is that the whole club needs to invest in the idea, the Manager included.Its no good having data if the Manager won’t listen and thinks it’s all nonsense because they once played football.

There is a book just come out called How to win the Premier League that shows how Liverpool had a data department that was very good but Brendan Rodgers preferred to go off gut instinct whereas Klopp saw the benefit of analytics and was used to sharing power from his days at Dortmund.

Liverpool have a very good analytical team as do City now but Brighton and Brentford are better because of what their owners do.

It’s not all about data. You have to know the player will settle and isn’t a dickhead and the player has to fit the way the Manager wants to play, but it’s a big help.

You can read about Bloom and Benham all over the internet if you are interested.
 
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