If Aguero is fit, I'd like to see us go with the following:
Pantilimon
Zabaleta - Kompany - Lescott - Kolarov
Navas - Yaya Toure - Fernandinho - Silva
Aguero - Negredo
If Aguero isn't fit, I'd like to see us do this:
Pantilimon
Zabaleta - Kompany - Demichelis - Clichy
Javi Garcia/Milner - Fernandinho
Nasri - Yaya Toure - Silva
Dzeko
I'd been thinking about it for a while now - ever since the second half against Arsenal in the 6-3, actually - and it seems to me that Negredo can't quite do it on his own. It's surprising really, because he has all the attributes required for a striker asked to lead the line - but Jesus Christ, he can't do it. He goes missing completely in games without Aguero and doesn't take advantage of the space Aguero usually makes for him. So, if there's no Aguero, I'd be tempted to leave Negredo out of this completely and give him a week off. Dzeko was poor against Stoke, but giving him the occasion at Wembley might make him hungrier.
As for the changing around in defence in accordance with Aguero's inclusion, don't worry. If Aguero is fit, we go for it and pray Sunderland buckle under the pressure. If we don't have Aguero, we keep a steady back line with Garcia or Milner covering in front of them, push Yaya Toure forward to compensate for Aguero's absence and let Dzeko lead the line how he did against Bayern Munich. If Aguero and Jovetic don't make it, and we go 4-4-2, I'm fearing another kind of Stoke game coming on.
We should win. But we should win every game. Sunderland are going to be up for this because it's a cup final and they know they can beat us if they hit us in the right places. They do have players who can cause us problems through sheer physicality and work ethic (Bardsley, Larsson, Altidore) and will be encouraged after their recent run under Gus Poyet. It's a cup final: anything can happen and probably will. I'm just happy to have yet another day at Wembley!
If we win the final, I think this will be one of the largest steps we take as a fanbase in moving on from Mancini. This will be Pellegrini's first trophy in his first season at City, should we win the game, and it might just convince those who still believe Mancini was the best thing for the club to change their allegiances. It was difficult to see Mancini go after all the fantastic work he'd done for us in putting our name on the map, but we had to move on for the sake of the future of the club. Mancini was the one break in the circuit because he wasn't willing to work in tandem with Txiki - Pellegrini is that type of man and we're looking much better for it as an organisation, we're a lot slicker. Let's hope we can put that to work on Sunday and get us a trophy!
