CL Last 16 vs Barcelona (feb. 24 & mar. 18)

[squirtyflower]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

2) then you need to take a class in probability.
.

ok then
what are the odds of drawing Barca last year and this?

They were one of five clubs we could have played last year and one of six this year. I make that a 1 in 30 chance.

you listened in your Maths lessons then?

which means that the draw of this and last year would usually happen, on average, once every thirty years?

 

[Bottomless_Sailor]

Do we get to register any additional players for our Champions League knockout squad?

 

[squirtyflower]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

2) then you need to take a class in probability.
.

ok then
what are the odds of drawing Barca last year and this?

Last year it was 1 in 5

This year 1 in 6.

So same as a dice throw, hardly up there with the great conspiracy theories.

It's just bad luck, look at how many home easy home cup draws we've had in the FA Cup for the last few years and everyone said the FA hates us too....

i've never once said, ever, that there is a conspiracy
but they are pretty poor odds as its much higher than rolling a die

 

[Tonster]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

ok then
what are the odds of drawing Barca last year and this?

They were one of five clubs we could have played last year and one of six this year. I make that a 1 in 30 chance.

you listened in your Maths lessons then?

which means that the draw of this and last year would usually happen, on average, once every thirty years?

Noooo, because the two events are unrelated. This is more likely to happen because Barca were in it both times. Obviously we couldn't get Monaco both times as they weren't in the previous draw..

 

[Regular Joe]

Pre-draw the consensus was Real Madrid were the worst draw. Even if we now combine Barca and Real thats a 2 in 6, or 1 in 3, chance of a bad draw. Thats 2/1 in betting terms. Hardly conclusive statistical proof of a UEFA conspiracy.

 

[Tonster]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

ok then
what are the odds of drawing Barca last year and this?

Last year it was 1 in 5

This year 1 in 6.

So same as a dice throw, hardly up there with the great conspiracy theories.

It's just bad luck, look at how many home easy home cup draws we've had in the FA Cup for the last few years and everyone said the FA hates us too....

i've never once said, ever, that there is a conspiracy
but they are pretty poor odds as its much higher than rolling a die

No it isn't. That's the point. Last year was a dice throw and this year was another unrelated dice throw totally unrelated to last years result. There is no 1 in 30 chance.

 

[jimharri]

<a class="postlink" href="http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2301007-manchester-city-wanted-to-avoid-barcelona-but-the-feeling-is-more-than-mutual?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=web-mob-art-mid-2518" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2301 ... t-mid-2518</a>

 

[squirtyflower]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

Last year it was 1 in 5

This year 1 in 6.

So same as a dice throw, hardly up there with the great conspiracy theories.

It's just bad luck, look at how many home easy home cup draws we've had in the FA Cup for the last few years and everyone said the FA hates us too....

i've never once said, ever, that there is a conspiracy
but they are pretty poor odds as its much higher than rolling a die

No it isn't. That's the point. Last year was a dice throw and this year was another unrelated dice throw totally unrelated to last years result. There is no 1 in 30 chance.

indeed they are unrelated events as draws
but you still have to roll the die twice and get the same result each time, therefore 1/30

Perhaps you should look into the chance that not everyone who distrusts UEFA are conspiracy theorists and that not all cynics are agenderists

 

[Corky]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

Last year it was 1 in 5

This year 1 in 6.

So same as a dice throw, hardly up there with the great conspiracy theories.

It's just bad luck, look at how many home easy home cup draws we've had in the FA Cup for the last few years and everyone said the FA hates us too....

i've never once said, ever, that there is a conspiracy
but they are pretty poor odds as its much higher than rolling a die

No it isn't. That's the point. Last year was a dice throw and this year was another unrelated dice throw totally unrelated to last years result. There is no 1 in 30 chance.

Once the first outcome is known it doesn't affect the odds of the second, but if you asked the question before the draw 1 year ago you would be able to multiply the odds and it would be more than 30 to 1 would it not? They are also different each year.

There was less chance of drawing them this year due to less English group winners, and a French team in both bowls also different to last year made it even less likely.

This out of the 6 we were more likely to draw Dortmund (5 possible opponents) Monaco (6) then either of the 4 Iberian teams (7) which we ended up doing,

 

[Tonster]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

i've never once said, ever, that there is a conspiracy
but they are pretty poor odds as its much higher than rolling a die

No it isn't. That's the point. Last year was a dice throw and this year was another unrelated dice throw totally unrelated to last years result. There is no 1 in 30 chance.

indeed they are unrelated events as draws
but you still have to roll the die twice and get the same result each time, therefore 1/30

And there you have it. Every combination is exactly the same then. Barca/Barca. Barca/Real. Barca/Monaco. Real/Monaco. And so on. All exactly the same. No more or less chance of the combo being Barca/Barca than Barca/Monaco or Barca/Dortmund etc.......