CL Last 16 vs Barcelona (feb. 24 & mar. 18)

[Tonster]

He would be correct given his assumption of 1 in 5 and 1 in 6, however the assumption is wrong as other clubs were prevented from drawing more opponents than others on the other side of the draw,

It isn't very easy to work out.

Actually as we were first out last year it was a straight 1 in 5 chance and second out this year (but the first game was Chelsea who we couldn't get) it meant for us again a straight 1 in 6 chance.
For other clubs the odds were slightly different agreed.

Last year we had 5 clubs we could draw but Dortmund were the highest chance as they could only draw 5 clubs and the other 4 could draw 7.

You need to work out the probability as each ball is drawn like the lottery, as if Schalke and Bay Lev were drawn Dortmund stay and Barca could be drawn. I need a pencil sharpener.

Yeah I take that point overall (i.e. Before today's draw started the most likely team we could have faced was Dortmund 25% chance apparently) but once the draw started today and we were second out after Chelsea's game it was then a 1 in 6 straight draw as they were all options for us at that point in the draw.

 

[ninjamonkey]

If you ignore the chances of getting each team in the draw were not completely equal due to the various rules and also ignore other variables such as the order in which we were drawn etc etc and then assign each team the same number and substitute teams that only made it to the last 16 once for each other then the chance of getting barca both times is 1 in 30. Yess both draws are independent of each other but for consecutive chances you simply multiply them together to get the odds of the same outcome on consecutive occasions.

It's more likely than rolling the same number twice in a row on a dice. hardly conspiracy odds.

 

[Tonster]

He would be correct given his assumption of 1 in 5 and 1 in 6, however the assumption is wrong as other clubs were prevented from drawing more opponents than others on the other side of the draw,

It isn't very easy to work out.

Actually as we were first out last year it was a straight 1 in 5 chance and second out this year (but the first game was Chelsea who we couldn't get) it meant for us again a straight 1 in 6 chance.
For other clubs the odds were slightly different agreed.

was the question not about the chance of us drawing Barca in BOTH draws? Therefore you would need to multiply 5 by 6 which gives a 30/1 chance. This would be the same odds as saying what would be the chance of us getting Barca last year and real Madrid this year.
Yes, once last year's draw had been made and we got Barca, it then comes down to a 1 in 6 to see if we get them again but to answer the chance to get them in BOTH draws you would need to multiply the odds.

Which at the chance of repeating myself is the same for every combo.

Ask yourself. Chance of drawing Barca last time. 1/5. Chance this time 1/6 so 1/30

Chance of drawing Barca last time 1/5. Chance of drawing Real this time 1/6 so 1/30

So you see mathematically the odds are the same. Exactly the same as the two events are unrelated.

 

[Regular Joe]

If you ignore the chances of getting each team in the draw were not completely equal due to the various rules and also ignore other variables such as the order in which we were drawn etc etc and then assign each team the same number and substitute teams that only made it to the last 16 once for each other then the chance of getting barca both times is 1 in 30. Yess both draws are independent of each other but for consecutive chances you simply multiply them together to get the odds of the same outcome on consecutive occasions.

It's more likely than rolling the same number twice in a row on a dice. hardly conspiracy odds.

And surely for conspiracy theorists Barca would have to be the hardest opponents, which this year at least they are not, by common consensus. Unless the conspiracy is for us to face the 3rd toughest team.

 

[Blue Tooth]

Gotta beat em at some point...might as well be now.

 

[Corky]

Actually as we were first out last year it was a straight 1 in 5 chance and second out this year (but the first game was Chelsea who we couldn't get) it meant for us again a straight 1 in 6 chance.
For other clubs the odds were slightly different agreed.

Last year we had 5 clubs we could draw but Dortmund were the highest chance as they could only draw 5 clubs and the other 4 could draw 7.

You need to work out the probability as each ball is drawn like the lottery, as if Schalke and Bay Lev were drawn Dortmund stay and Barca could be drawn. I need a pencil sharpener.

Yeah I take that point overall (i.e. Before today's draw started the most likely team we could have faced was Dortmund 25% chance apparently) but once the draw started today and we were second out after Chelsea's game it was then a 1 in 6 straight draw as they were all options for us at that point in the draw.

At that point it was 1 in 6, but a bit irrelevant as if we were drawn last it would be 100% etc, you have to take the odds before the draw.

The Sheff Weds ties are more suspicious, getting into the thousands.

The probability of any two draws is high if there are a number of teams involved, whether it is the same or different teams drawn as the outcome.

 

[BlueDeadHead]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

How do they fix it I wonder? I mean obviously it IS fixed, but I wonder how they do it.

2) then you need to take a class in probability.
.

ok then
what are the odds of drawing Barca last year and this?

Last year it was probably 25% or so. This year it is 15% or so. Someone smarter than me can do the math but the odds of drawing them twice in a row is not as high as people make out. We had five clubs we could have drawn. Barca was one of them. Thats just the way odds worl.

 

[BlueDeadHead]

Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona

indeed they are unrelated events as draws
but you still have to roll the die twice and get the same result each time, therefore 1/30

And there you have it. Every combination is exactly the same then. Barca/Barca. Barca/Real. Barca/Monaco. Real/Monaco. And so on. All exactly the same. No more or less chance of the combo being Barca/Barca than Barca/Monaco or Barca/Dortmund etc.......

i hope to god you don't teach maths

but if you do its probably in one of those inner city 'comprehensives'

I am obviously not a conspiracy guy. But SF is right. IF you ask the question before this year's draw the odds of us getting Barca 2 times in a row are high. That said, considering who is in it and who is not (part of the reason the odds are high is that we barely deserve to be in it this year--if we didn't qualify for the knockouts which many assumed we would not we would not have this conversation). Once we qualified it was good odds that we would get them (as good as any others). Is it bad luck. Yes. Would Real be worse? Probably.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Perhaps those arguing that to tonster is wrong could actually explain why they think that rather than making unsupported digs.

Let's say you have two separate bags of balls (ooh err missus) and the first has 4 red and 1 blue, while the second has 5 red and 1 blue.

If you ask the question, what's the odds of picking the blue ball from bag 1 and what's the odds of picking the blue ball from bag 2, it's 1/5 and 1/6 respectively.

However the question asked was what is the chance of picking the blue ball from both bags (regardless of the fact it's two unrelated actions) and it's 1/30.

 

[pudge]

Perhaps those arguing that to tonster is wrong could actually explain why they think that rather than making unsupported digs.

Let's say you have two separate bags of balls (ooh err missus) and the first has 4 red and 1 blue, while the second has 5 red and 1 blue.

If you ask the question, what's the odds of picking the blue ball from bag 1 and what's the odds of picking the blue ball from bag 2, it's 1/5 and 1/6 respectively.

However the question asked was what is the chance of picking the blue ball from both bags (regardless of the fact it's two unrelated actions) and it's 1/30.

How cold is the blue ball?

On a scale of freezing to baltic