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Deleted member 58619
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Prestwich_Blue said:
Well explained
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CL Last 16 vs Barcelona (feb. 24 & mar. 18)
- Thread starter Champions2012!
- Start date
Well explained
Bill
Moderator
Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona
delusion beyond belief. barca and co love being drawn against us, they know they will be "looked after" and will most likely go through.
BlueDeadHead said:Chippy_boy said:How do they fix it I wonder? I mean obviously it IS fixed, but I wonder how they do it.
1) you weirdos need to realize that there are certain clubs we can't draw (English teams and Bayern).
2) then you need to take a class in probability.
3) then you need to understand that until we get pot 1 we are always going to be in a group of death. Always, for the simple fact that we are a Pot 1 (talent wise) team that currently is stuck in Pot 2.
4) finally you need to remember our shit play put us in this position. we win our group and this isn't a problem.
It is actually kind of embarrassing all of this talk about the draws being fixed. You think Bayern LIKE being drawn against us. You think Barca said to Uefa we want City? Both of those UEFA "favorites" are not happy drawing us.
If you want to talk about refs and how they may or not be biased then fine...at least they are human.
delusion beyond belief. barca and co love being drawn against us, they know they will be "looked after" and will most likely go through.
Blue Haze
Well-Known Member
I like the statistical approach, but I'd like to add more. If someone else has already done this, well then oops.
Realistically Real Madrid are a worse draw than Barca at the moment. And Munich are always bad. Since we've come into the CL, those 3 have been the ones to avoid. Let's call them the "super clubs".
According to the table, we had a roughly 29% chance of drawing a super club. We were spared Munich only because they were our group stage opponents. I can't remember what it was last season but let's say 29%. It won't make a huge difference when you see where I'm going with this. The chance of that happening 2 seasons in a row are .29 x .29 = .0841. Only an 8.4% chance of drawing a super club 2 years in a row.
That's still within the realm of possibility. 8% chances are rare, but with only 2 instances it can still happen.
When you factor in our group stage draws though, it's pretty unrealistic. 4 straight years of super clubs. If you eliminate the English clubs, by year we had the following chances to draw a super club from pot 1, excluding English clubs:
2011-12: 3/5 = 60%
2012-13: 3/5 = 60%
2013-14: 3/5 = 60%
2013-15: 3/6 (Man U didn't make it) = 50%
.6 x .6 x .6 x .5 = 10.8%
10.8% x 8.4% = .009072
That means to have been drawn against super clubs at every stage, 4 group stage rounds and 2 knock out rounds, we only 0.9% chance of that happening.
People will dismiss this as "well, it's the same chance as every other exact outcome." Sure, but the same is true for a guy who deals himself 3 straight flushes in a row. It's getting beyond the point of plausibility now for such a consistent outcome despite such a small chance of occurrence.
To give you an idea of how improbable this is, it's roughly the same probability as flipping a coin and landing on heads 7 times in a row. Sure, it can happen. But after the seventh time, don't be upset if I begin to wonder about that coin.
Realistically Real Madrid are a worse draw than Barca at the moment. And Munich are always bad. Since we've come into the CL, those 3 have been the ones to avoid. Let's call them the "super clubs".
According to the table, we had a roughly 29% chance of drawing a super club. We were spared Munich only because they were our group stage opponents. I can't remember what it was last season but let's say 29%. It won't make a huge difference when you see where I'm going with this. The chance of that happening 2 seasons in a row are .29 x .29 = .0841. Only an 8.4% chance of drawing a super club 2 years in a row.
That's still within the realm of possibility. 8% chances are rare, but with only 2 instances it can still happen.
When you factor in our group stage draws though, it's pretty unrealistic. 4 straight years of super clubs. If you eliminate the English clubs, by year we had the following chances to draw a super club from pot 1, excluding English clubs:
2011-12: 3/5 = 60%
2012-13: 3/5 = 60%
2013-14: 3/5 = 60%
2013-15: 3/6 (Man U didn't make it) = 50%
.6 x .6 x .6 x .5 = 10.8%
10.8% x 8.4% = .009072
That means to have been drawn against super clubs at every stage, 4 group stage rounds and 2 knock out rounds, we only 0.9% chance of that happening.
People will dismiss this as "well, it's the same chance as every other exact outcome." Sure, but the same is true for a guy who deals himself 3 straight flushes in a row. It's getting beyond the point of plausibility now for such a consistent outcome despite such a small chance of occurrence.
To give you an idea of how improbable this is, it's roughly the same probability as flipping a coin and landing on heads 7 times in a row. Sure, it can happen. But after the seventh time, don't be upset if I begin to wonder about that coin.
MeatnSpudsMCFC
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 8 Jul 2009
- Messages
- 11,528
The game itself isn't too much of a concern, a fully fit squad is perfectly capable of beating them... The problem however, is that. A fully fit squad.
We need Aguero, Zabaleta, Kompany, Toure, Silva, Nasri all available for both legs. And how often do we ever get to field all of them at once?
We need Aguero, Zabaleta, Kompany, Toure, Silva, Nasri all available for both legs. And how often do we ever get to field all of them at once?
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Deleted member 58619
Guest
MeatnSpudsMCFC said:The game itself isn't too much of a concern, a fully fit squad is perfectly capable of beating them... The problem however, is that. A fully fit squad.
We need Aguero, Zabaleta, Kompany, Toure, Silva, Nasri all available for both legs. And how often do we ever get to field all of them at once?
YaYa is suspended game 1
MeatnSpudsMCFC said:The game itself isn't too much of a concern, a fully fit squad is perfectly capable of beating them... The problem however, is that. A fully fit squad.
We need Aguero, Zabaleta, Kompany, Toure, Silva, Nasri all available for both legs. And how often do we ever get to field all of them at once?
I'd guess a bigger problem will be them diving around like fairies and the ref giving them everything under the sun. Expect both ferns to be on yellows early doors and probably ten men for most of the second half.
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manchester blue
Guest
Re: CL Last 16 vs Barcelona
[/quote]
Can't believe this is still being seriously debated. Do people really think the balls are hot/cold and the ex players etc will go along with this? I'll have it that referees are not impartial, that's obvious from CSKA but I need convincing they are acting on EUFA orders.
BlueDeadHead said:Chippy_boy said:How do they fix it I wonder? I mean obviously it IS fixed, but I wonder how they do it.
1) you weirdos need to realize that there are certain clubs we can't draw (English teams and Bayern).
2) then you need to take a class in probability.
3) then you need to understand that until we get pot 1 we are always going to be in a group of death. Always, for the simple fact that we are a Pot 1 (talent wise) team that currently is stuck in Pot 2.
4) finally you need to remember our shit play put us in this position. we win our group and this isn't a problem.
It is actually kind of embarrassing all of this talk about the draws being fixed. You think Bayern LIKE being drawn against us. You think Barca said to Uefa we want City? Both of those UEFA "favorites" are not happy drawing us.
If you want to talk about refs and how they may or not be biased then fine...at least they are human.
[/quote]
Can't believe this is still being seriously debated. Do people really think the balls are hot/cold and the ex players etc will go along with this? I'll have it that referees are not impartial, that's obvious from CSKA but I need convincing they are acting on EUFA orders.
FromPollockToSilva
Well-Known Member
What sort of lineup can we expect from Barcelona? Something like this?
-----------------------------ter Stegen----------------------
Dani Alves-----Mascherano------Pique-------Alba
----------------------------Busquets------------------------
---------------Rakitic-------------------Iniesta------------
---Suarez---------------Messi----------------Neymar--
We can certainly handle that midfield, and if Aguero's back I fancy us to score against that defence too. Those lads up top for them though...
-----------------------------ter Stegen----------------------
Dani Alves-----Mascherano------Pique-------Alba
----------------------------Busquets------------------------
---------------Rakitic-------------------Iniesta------------
---Suarez---------------Messi----------------Neymar--
We can certainly handle that midfield, and if Aguero's back I fancy us to score against that defence too. Those lads up top for them though...
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blueinsa
Guest
In the same way reality tv is fixed to maximise viewer interest and thus revenues, so is this competition.
The draws are fixed to protect the same few each and every year in the hope the same few make it all the way, you know to maximise viewer interest and revenues.
Of course you will at some point have 2 big teams up against each other earlier than wanted but they can always rely on officials to help and anyone who isnt suspicious of refs in this competition given what we have seen really do need their eyes tested.
We are getting the shitty end of the stick right now and no doubt in the future, we will benefit from the corruption of UEFA but it wont be right as it isnt now.
Predicition time. We will do enough to win against Barca but a red card here or a penalty decision will swing it only one way.....bookmark this post.
The draws are fixed to protect the same few each and every year in the hope the same few make it all the way, you know to maximise viewer interest and revenues.
Of course you will at some point have 2 big teams up against each other earlier than wanted but they can always rely on officials to help and anyone who isnt suspicious of refs in this competition given what we have seen really do need their eyes tested.
We are getting the shitty end of the stick right now and no doubt in the future, we will benefit from the corruption of UEFA but it wont be right as it isnt now.
Predicition time. We will do enough to win against Barca but a red card here or a penalty decision will swing it only one way.....bookmark this post.
D
D
Deleted member 58619
Guest
blueinsa said:In the same way reality tv is fixed to maximise viewer interest and thus revenues, so is this competition.
The draws are fixed to protect the same few each and every year in the hope the same few make it all the way, you know to maximise viewer interest and revenues.
Of course you will at some point have 2 big teams up against each other earlier than wanted but they can always rely on officials to help and anyone who isnt suspicious of refs in this competition given what we have seen really do need their eyes tested.
We are getting the shitty end of the stick right now and no doubt in the future, we will benefit from the corruption of UEFA but it wont be right as it isnt now.
Predicition time. We will do enough to win against Barca but a red card here or a penalty decision will swing it only one way.....bookmark this post.
I do expect the referee to be a huge factor in this tie, but can't believe the balls ere fixed!!