The current slight increase in global temperatures is well within the earth's customary temperature range. Temperatures today are lower than they were in the mediæval warm period. Sea level has been rising slowly since the end of the last ice age, but the rate of rise shows no sign of increasing.
The Antarctic contains around 90% of the world's ice, and the Antarctic ice mass is increasing, while temperatures are actually trending down slightly over most of the Antarctic.
Only about 3% of global CO2 emissions are man-made, and the relation between atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate is still subject to debate. Catastrophic predictions of global warming are based on notoriously unreliable computer projections, with both governments and media always seizing on the most alarmist possibilities.
Yet only thirty years ago, serious scientific papers, and the media, were panicking over the threat of global cooling, and the imminent on-set of the next Ice Age! We seem to have a deep psychological need for scare stories.
While the establishment pontificates about the Kyoto protocol, widely accepted estimates of the likely impact of Kyoto (if fully implemented -- of course it won't be) is a reduction in mean global temperatures of about 0.02°C by 2050, and no more than 0.2°C by 2100. We are being asked to decimate energy use, roll back the industrial revolution, and make heroic economic sacrifices, in order to achieve changes in long-term climate projections almost too small to measure.
So why are we constantly bombarded with hysterical climate change propaganda? Why is climate change "the greatest threat facing man-kind" (if you ignore terrorism, nuclear war, the millennium bug, bird flu etc etc)?
The motivation of the green lobby is pretty clear. These people hate capitalism with a passion. In the sixties they'd have been communists. Now their weapon of choice against capitalism, free markets, prosperity and progress is a two-pronged attack on globalisation and climate change. Both prongs are wholly wrong-headed.
Governments jump on the band-wagon not only to respond to the ill-founded fears of voters, but because crusading on climate change offers opportunities both for new taxes, and for the global governance initiatives beloved by political leaders (as well as a distraction from more immediate problems). We hear apologists for the EU talking more and more about its supposed environmental role (despite the massive failure of its Kyoto commitments and its Emissions Trading System).
The enthusiasm of some major corporations takes more explaining. Some are making the most of a bad job, and aligning themselves to the Zeitgeist. But many are "rent seekers". They see commercial opportunities in the incentives offered by government -- for example in the gross market distortions created to promote the economic lunacy of wind farms.
The climate hysteria is now so all-pervading that it is difficult for the still, small voice of common sense to get a hearing. All the more reason to welcome a brilliantly readable new book "The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming", by my good friend Chris Horner of the Competitive Enterprise Institute. Tightly argued, full of counter-intuitive information, and peppered with the failed forecasts of green activists, this is essential reading for all those concerned with climate and the environment.
Amongst the quotes, I particularly liked "The threat of a new Ice Age must now stand alongside nuclear war as a major threat to mankind" (Nigel Calder, International Wildlife, 1975); and "Nutritional disaster seems likely to overtake humanity in the '70s (or at latest the '80s) .... (it) could lead to a billion people starving to death" (Ehrlich, The End of Affluence, 1974). Yet today in the West, obesity, not malnutrition, stalks the land.