It's spreading across the world it seems. It spiked in the UAE yesterday, the most heavily vaccinated country in the world. I am not worried any more, just irritated because it makes life difficult and less enjoyable. If it wasn't for Covid, I'd be seriously excited preparing to fly out to Istanbul.
Coronavirus (2021) thread
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artfuldodger
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Ive joined a FB group for those of us on the Novavax trial, who are in the position of having had a vaccine which appears to not be seeking approval until October at the earliest. Myself and other UK participants are concerned about vaccine passports and travel.
To my surprise and amusement, the American members of the group are concerned about Novavax not being recognized in their state's monthly vaccine lottery!! $1.5 million in California. Maybe thats the way forward here!!
To my surprise and amusement, the American members of the group are concerned about Novavax not being recognized in their state's monthly vaccine lottery!! $1.5 million in California. Maybe thats the way forward here!!
Not an issue. From the ONS
- In England, an estimated 3 in 4 adults, or 75.9% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 72.6% to 79.6%) would have tested positive for antibodies against the coronavirus – SARS-CoV-2 – on a blood test in the week beginning 3 May 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.
jazzy
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I am not happy with novavax , however I thought the American lottery was for those that got jabbed that month not that they have had it 6 months ago
ayrshire_blue
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I think, if I'm gathering things correctly, it's the effect on herd immunity threshold which now takes a massive increase due to the transmission difference.
If 67% more transmissible (as per PHE report) I'm reading that takes HIT up to 87%. If we have a vaccine which is 90% efficacy against symptoms, this requires 96% of the population to be fully vaccinated. As we have people who cannot take the vaccine for medical reasons and some who point blank refuse, this results in this figure actually requiring infections rather than vaccinations to reach that threshold.
The difference between this variant and the Kent variant is actually bigger than what the difference between the Kent variant was to wildtype, which doesn't spell good news for the rest of the globe and drives the probability of further yet more harmful mutations.
blue b4 the moon
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Can you give me a link please for my wife?
Magicpole
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Thank you. As for yourself don't go down the rabbit hole of worry. It could be you have been out of your routine so l9ng thst you are just at a lower level of fitness and as we all know, getting back to fitness even with covid is a ****. Call your doc, and seek either a test or reassurance. If you had it bad you woudnt be able to walk into the kitchen for a double egg sandwich never mind train. Until you find out exactly don't assume you have is all I'm.saying and the fact you can do anything tells me it might not be as bad as you fear. Call the fucking doctor though, or you will drive yourself nuts. Or, even more nuts. :)
artfuldodger
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Yes it is. But many, like me, only received the 2nd dose vaccine in the last 4 weeks. And the Americans are more behind than us. Some are getting dose 2 now.
artfuldodger
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What's your wife going do? Im wondering whether to take the risk and get the AZ one. Just frightened of getting ill.
03 March 2002
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The process would need to be formally transferred to other companies by way of a technology transfer which would take circa. 6 months. It would require updates to the regulatory filing which would need further health authority attention.
There aren't an awful lot of companies supplying the raw materials and as such more production might just effect a constriction on those raw materials.
Even if these 2 were not an issue the final isolate vaccine is sent to a facility to be encapsulated in a way which requires a great degree of expertise. It may be that the encapsulation is the bottleneck on supply and that won't be expanded upon quickly or easily.
PragueBlue
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It is here. Courts have ruled that restaurants/pubs can open from Monday. It was supposed to be 14th June but the health ministry has been overruled.
unicorn
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Definitely not, but refuseniks shouldn't expect the same sort of freedoms as those that do follow the science (and I have a few friends who won't take it who'll go mad if they can't go to gigs and football).
roubaixtuesday
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I think that's right, but there are upsides too...
That 67% is highly provisional and uncertain. Some outbreaks have already subsided, which strongly suggests it's not that bad.
Herd immunity isn't all or nothing. Every extra vaccine in an arm will reduce the peak of any future wave.
Theoretical herd immunity thresholds may be overstated due to population heterogeneity (those most likely to spread it are also most likely to have caught it, so will be immune now). Israel would support that.
blue b4 the moon
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What's your wife going do? Im wondering whether to take the risk and get the AZ one. Just frightened of getting ill.
Not too much as yet.
We've nothing booked abroad for this year but may and it's a long shot, may try to go & see friends in Rhodes in Oct if the world has calmed down.
Healdplace
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There is truth in that but it should have been blocked when the whole world saw what was coming. I think our obviously real special relationship with India got in the way of pragmatism. In ways it will not elsewhere. They gambled and lost.
What is less forgivable is why - as you will see easily if you read back in here - WE saw Bolton happening days before anyone taking action did. Because they are besotted with using only finalised data that is often days out of date.
I have always used the up to date data not because I think it is more accurate (it is a little less accurte and possibly a lot less after last week's switch of tactics on the rapid tests that turn negative which will get published daily as positive and not removed from that days score).
But not at least watching both trends means you miss the bigger picture. It happened with Bolton and Wigan (two of the three GM towns with the Indian variant rife now as just reported on the news) back in July/August and resuted in GM being in lockdown all autumn and winter. We saw in here the problem brewing and were asking why nobody was acting and even an MP ga ve an interview denying the figures were showing anything because he was only looking at 5 day old data. As soon as he saw the sixth day reveal the pattern we already had in here from the week before he had to ask the BBC not to show the interview he had given and film a new one taking into account what the 'new' (as in days old really) data was showing him.
Yet exactly the same thing seems to have happened again 9 months later. Boris seems pretty adept at 9 months long misadventures so I guess we should not be too surprised. (Sorry could not resist that one!)
Hopefully we saw this in the end early enough to act and our testing is way better than it was. So fingers crossed. But I just find it amazing that these mistakes keep being repeated and not learnt from.
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who is 'they' ? out of interest
Healdplace
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I do not know and am not blaming anyone specifcally.
Whoever was supposed to see this brewing and/or act accordingly. Not political necessarily.
I think it was just the understandable reliance on finalised data which is sensible from a scientific perspective but in a fast moving pandemic misses the hints you can get with sudden changes that you cannot easily afford to wait 5 days to discover if they mean anything.
Maybe someone did see this on both occasions. Maybe we were just slow acting on it for other reasons. Maybe they did act but never told the local people to act early enough. It just seems concerning that we were talking about it in here two or three day before it made the news. Conveying what was happenimg two or three days earlier might have made a crucial difference in slowing the spread.
I guess in the end I am blaming myself as I could have asked somebody in local politics if they saw what was happening. I just presumed they must have done and still hope they did. But just do not get why it was not conveyed rapidly. I can only guess they saw the spike but waited to see the final data to be sure it was real.
You can argue that as the wise step. I do agree. Just my frustration talking really that time is vital to stop spread that is as fast as this variant seems to be.
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There are a few problems with both approaches.
can you really act suppressively with data that is 'flashy' and could simply represent a steady trend but the reporting means it looks like an increase? Equally should you wait and see what happens when the reporting date data is telling you things are going up? 'Out of date' is a misnomer, as it represents the actual date, but i understand you just use that as a label.
for what it's worth, i am very confident that there are batch processes that compare both sets of data. The speed at which variant %age breakdown of cases was produced (weeks ago, not recently) told me that to do that, there was sequencing already happening ages ago. Then there is access to data we simply dont have in good time, that were initially used as parameters in the crappy tier system.
the communication between the data production and the people who make decisions on what to do with it, or level of interest in what it means (across the board) is another matter entirely. Yes i think you're right in that Bolton data was pretty obviously going up but i am afraid i completely disagree that it was not seen in public health, it's just a question on why there wasn't 'apparent' action.
Healdplace
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Wales data:
0 deaths - was 2 last week
32 cases - was 28 last week
0.25% positivity - was 0.3% last week.
19 patients - down 7 in day - was 42 last week
3 ventilated - was 3 last week
Wales continues to excell.
0 deaths - was 2 last week
32 cases - was 28 last week
0.25% positivity - was 0.3% last week.
19 patients - down 7 in day - was 42 last week
3 ventilated - was 3 last week
Wales continues to excell.
Churchlawtonblue
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Hi thanks for the response, its good to know that there are some people on this forum like your good self that clearly do know an awful lot in this area.
Keep them posts coming. Cheers
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